Thursday, May 17, 2012

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Beckett Bogeyed with Golf Outing

Each time Josh Beckett heads out for an athletic contest, he hopes to hit his spots....

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Fantasy: Perfecting Trade Negotiations Part I

Regardless of what your league format is, trading is one of the most exciting parts of fantasy baseball. ...

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What's wrong with Francisco Liriano?

Something is wrong with Francisco Liriano....

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Fighting for the Plate: Harper-Hamels

I have no knowledge of how tough Cole Hamels actually is.  Odds are he could kick my butt ...

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Book Review: The Might have Been

Baseball doesn’t always love you back....

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Dodgers Offense Needs to Improve

This offseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers were picked to finish third in NL West at best...

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Save 609 May Never Happen.

We may never see save 609. The great Mariano Rivera isn’t dead but sidelined. At the age of 42, asking him to bounce back from an ACL tear like he said he would attempt to do might be asking too much...

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Trades No Longer Favoring the Twins

I hadn't really been thinking about the Twins much until asked to do a column on them. I just accepted that this is who they are now. But I looked at the Twins farm system and wondered where this organization went....

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Beckett Bogeyed with Golf Outing

by Jim Mancari on 15 May 2012 (In Regular Articles)

Beckett Bogeyed with Golf Outing

Each time Josh Beckett heads out for an athletic contest, he hopes to hit his spots.While Red Sox Nation expects those spots to be the catcher’s glove on the corners of the plate, Beckett had something else in mind earlier last week. Those “spots” were the greens on a golf course with a 9-iron -- not a fastball -- as the weapon of choice.Though MLB players are entitled to spend their off days any way they want, Beckett went golfing the day after he missed a start recovering from a sore lat muscle. Naturally, the Boston media haven’t been shy...

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Fantasy: Perfecting Trade Negotiations Part I

by Joshua Kay on 13 May 2012 (In Fantasy Articles)

Fantasy: Perfecting Trade Negotiations Part I

Regardless of what your league format is, trading is one of the most exciting parts of fantasy baseball. Trading is a great way to improve your team if you do it right. The best trades are done by the best negotiators and negotiating skill can be the difference between a good trade and a bad trade. So few articles these days, however, focus on actual in-season strategy because it’s very difficult to provide advice on strategy that is pertinent to the masses; this is due in part to the numerous different league formats. I will explain a few...

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What's wrong with Francisco Liriano?

by Jim Mancari on 12 May 2012 (In Regular Articles)

What's wrong with Francisco Liriano?

Something is wrong with Francisco Liriano.The Minnesota Twins ace lefty has gotten off to the worst start of his career at 0-4 in five starts with a 9.97 ERA. He was even skipped in the rotation in an effort to clear his head.The rest didn’t exactly work, as Liriano was burned for two home runs in a 4-0 loss Tuesday to the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. But at least Liriano ended his streak of surrendering at least five earned runs per start. He gave up only four in 5 1/3 innings this time around. Photo by Alan Turkus, used under...

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Fighting for the Plate: Harper-Hamels

by Jonathan Leshanski on 11 May 2012 (In Regular Articles)

Fighting for the Plate:  Harper-Hamels

I have no knowledge of how tough Cole Hamels actually is.  Odds are he could kick my butt without breaking a sweat.  What I do know for sure is that Hamels is one of the best pitchers currently in the Majors.  That’s why his throwing at Bryce Harper and then admitting it came as a bit of a surprise. Photo by Dirk Hansen, used under creative commons license. Sure there is some bad blood in terms of rivalry between the teams, and certainly those who’ve actually met Bryce Harper won’t defend him as being a “nice guy.” In fact the word...

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Book Review: The Might have Been

by Jonathan Leshanski on 08 May 2012 (In Reviews)

Book Review: The Might have Been

Title: The Might have Been: A NovelAuthor: Joseph M. SchusterPages: 330Baseball doesn’t always love you back.  It’s a tough game, one which in many aspects is totally unforgiving, especially if you are one of the thousands who don’t make the cut.  That’s something that comes through on every single page of Joseph Schuster’s debut novel.  It’s a novel without glamour, without glitz.  It’s about the hardness that the game, and the curves that life can throw at you.   The only question is can you learn to hit them.For Edward Everett Yates, the protagonist of this baseball novel that spans roughly...

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Dodgers Offense Needs to Improve

by Jim Mancari on 06 May 2012 (In Regular Articles)

Dodgers Offense Needs to Improve

This offseason, the Los Angeles Dodgers were picked to finish third in NL West at best. Financial issues surrounding the team's ownership clouded a decent season last year, but the outlook heading into 2012 was still bleak. Then Magic Johnson stepped in as one of the team's new owners, and the attitude of the club and fanbase completely changed. Now, the Don Mattingly-led Dodgers are the surprise team in the league. The team is tied for the best record in the NL at 17-9 and doesn't appear to be slowing down. Los Angeles just completed a three-game sweep of the Washington Nationals,...

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Save 609 May Never Happen.

by Jonathan Leshanski on 05 May 2012 (In Regular Articles)

Save 609 May Never Happen.

We may never see save 609.  The great Mariano Rivera isn't dead but sidelined.  At the age of 42, asking him to bounce back from an ACL tear might be asking too much. That's not to say that Rivera wouldn't be game.  After all he is one of the fiercest competitors of all time, especially when the pressure is high.  In fact, that's the spot where he's unparalleled. No one, especially Mariano, wanted this happen.  Mo was a blaze of glory. That calm, cool, collected demeanor that entered each game to the theme of "Enter Sandman" was taken from...

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Trades No Longer Favoring the Twins

by Joshua Kay on 04 May 2012 (In Regular Articles)

Trades No Longer Favoring the Twins

I hadn't really been thinking about the Twins much until asked to do a column on them. I just accepted that this is who they are now. But I looked at the Twins farm system and wondered where this organization went. After winning seven division titles in the last 10 years, the Minnesota Twins have been obviously one of the best organizations in baseball during that time period. They have also been a team that even before that has always been extremely competitive. Photo by Eric Kilby, used under creative commons license. But in 2011, everything for the Twins changed. They only...

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Beckett Trade a Win-Win Years Later

by Jake Bielecki on 03 May 2012 (In Regular Articles)

Beckett Trade a Win-Win Years Later

Looking back on trades is always interesting. Anyone playing in a fantasy baseball league with the same managers over a period of time finds out who is good at trading and who isn't. The same can be done for General Managers, and one who garners a lot of respect is Theo Epstein. Looking back on a pivotal move made by Epstein -- the Josh Beckett for Hanley Ramirez trade -- how well did he do? Has Josh Beckett produced well enough to earn what Theo gave up for him? When it was announced that Marlins pitcher Josh Beckett would be shipping...

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Patience Required for Tim Lincecum

by Jim Mancari on 30 Apr 2012 (In Regular Articles)

Patience Required for Tim Lincecum

Giants pitcher Tim Lincecum has looked different this year. Maybe not physically -- he still has his long hair and lanky build -- but the results are just not there early on. Through his first five starts, the 27-year-old right-hander is 2-2 with an eye-opening 5.74 ERA. What's going on with the two-time Cy Young Award winner? Here are some possibilities. Lincecum might just be getting off to a slow start. It happens to many players each season. We've been so accustomed to watching "The Freak" baffle hitters consistently that it's strange to see him struggle. Maybe "The Freak" actually is human? What...

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Living Baseball Cards?
Written by Bjoern Hartig (Contact & Archive) on March 12, 2009   

Deuce of Davenports comments on the "new" 3-D Look of Topps baseball cards:

This is what collecting cards has become...a video game and a dated one at that. Wouldn't it be cooler if it were some full motion video of the player or something besides this 3-D image that looks like it was ripped from the MLB 2k4 on the PS2? The card collecting industry is struggling so much that the only way they can conceive of trying to attain some portion of the valuable fleeting attention spans of 7-15 year old kids that is being concentrated mostly in video games is to turn the cards themselves into them.

While I would, in theory, agree with what he says, I doubt there really are 3-D baseball cards. This is the video he talks about:

Ok, come on, this must be fake. Where are the projections supposed to come from? Reading in a card via Webcam, I can buy that, but that the card is able to create a 3D projection? No way, there is no such technology (and if there were, I doubt that baseball cards would be the first device to implement it.

I can't believe Rob Neyer bought it, too. ;)

 
Gold digging with HBT
Written by Bjoern Hartig (Contact & Archive) on March 11, 2009   

Dave Studeman and Mike Webber of the Hardball Times worked with Bill James on his The Bill James Gold Mine 2009, collecting "short, interesting and meaningful" statistical "nuggets". Not all their finding made it though, and they present the rejected nuggets on The Hardball Times. Here are some highlights:

  • 33% of Barry Zito’s innings required 20 or more pitches, the second-highest figure in the majors.
  • Zito threw the fifth-slowest fastball in the majors last year. The only pitchers who threw slower fastballs were Tim Wakefield and old guys like Greg Maddux.
  • Zito threw the second-slowest changeup in the majors last year (74.1 mph)
  • Zito now throws his changeup more often than his curveball
            Curve  Change
2005 25% 14%
2006 19% 19%
2007 19% 20%
2008 16% 20%
  • Batters are sizing up even his pitches out of the strike zone. They were much more likely to swing at pitches outside the zone last year than in previous years, and also more likely to make contact when they did swing.
Pitches outside the strike zone...
Swung at Made contact
2005 21% 52%
2006 22% 62%
2007 20% 64%
2008 26% 72%

No wonder Zito was so bad last year. If hitters start smashing your pitches outside the zone, where are you going to throw? Another reason why Zito's contract is one of the worst active contracts in MLB.

Dodger pitcher Hiroki Kuroda pitched some of his best games against the best teams, but only had a 1-2 record to show for it. Yet he posted a 5.66 ERA against the worst teams and posted a 2-1 record against them.

Opponent             G    IP    W     L    SO    BB   ERA
.600 teams 3 21.2 1 2 19 5 1.66
.500 - .599 teams 12 66.1 3 3 43 16 3.66
.400 - .499 teams 12 74.2 3 4 40 14 3.86
sub .400 teams 4 20.2 2 1 14 7 5.66

I guess that's the kind of pitcher you need in October. The ERA, not the wins. And now to the complete opposite case:

B.J. Upton batted .200 with a .598 OPS against the best pitchers he faced and .361/1.013 against the worst.

                                 AB    H   HR   RBI   Avg   OPS
Pitcher with ERA <= 3.50 155 31 2 15 .200 .598
Pitcher with ERA 3.51 to 4.25 144 34 0 9 .236 .688
Pitcher with ERA 4.26 to 5.25 123 41 4 18 .333 .924
Pitcher with ERA over 5.25 108 39 3 25 .361 1.013

Check out the rest yourself over at HBT. And if those are the rejected nuggets, what actually made it to the book really must be pure gold.

 
Netherlands upset the D.R. - A Canadutch pitcher blogging the WBC
Written by Bjoern Hartig (Contact & Archive) on March 11, 2009   

The Netherlands have done it again. They beat the highly favored Dominican Republic in dramatic fashion, scoring 2 runs in the bottom of the eleventh inning to come from behind and take the game 2-1. Unbelievable!

Let me just list a few well known names on the D.R. team: Jose Reyes, Hanley Ramirez, David Ortiz, Miguel Tejada, Jose Guillen, Robinson Cano ...

No a few names on the Dutch team you might know:

The D.R. got seven hits and seven walks but managed only one run. They left 23 men on base. The Netherland struck out 15 times, walked once and got five hits, but won because Carlos Marmol, the Cubs closer, made an error on a pick-off attempt that allowed the tying run to advance from first to third. The winning run then came home on a fielding error by Willy Aybar (Recap). If you needed more prove that fundamentally sound baseball wins games, you got it here.

If you want some impressions from the Dutch team, I suggest you head over to Canadutch, where Leon 44 blogs about his WBC experience. Leon 44, I'm sure, is noone else but Leon Boyd, a Canadian with a Dutch passport and the closer of the Dutch team. I'm sure once he is done celebrating with his teammates, he will have a few things to say about how it feels to first give up the potentially losing run and then ending up the winning pitcher in the greatest upset the WBC has seen so far. So drop over and say hello.

Addition: I did not know that Bert Blyleven is the pitching coach of the Netherlands. He is certainly doing a great job. Hat Tip: Babes love baseball

 
2009 Dodgers Preview on Foxsports
Written by Bjoern Hartig (Contact & Archive) on March 10, 2009   

Much like AHP, Foxsports.com is currently running down its season previews. Athlon Sports (that must be a pseudonym) takes on the Dodgers and I was a bit surprised about what I read:

Blake DeWitt was supposed to start the 2008 season in Double-A, but he ended up — partly through attrition — as the Dodgers' starting third baseman on Opening Day. He hit a respectable .264 in 117 games and was supposed to take over at second base for the departed Jeff Kent. But the Dodgers signed Orlando Hudson in late February and he'll push DeWitt back to a reserve role or possibly to the minors.

That sounds a bit like the Dodgers made a mistake signing Hudson when they have a solid in-house option in DeWitt. However, DeWitt's batting average is misleading, he slugged only .383 (even though he got on base well enough with an OBP of .344). Hudson on the other hand hit .305/.367/.450 last season AND he provides gold glove defense. Given his moderate price tag, I'd say that was a good move.

Casey Blake, acquired just before the trading deadline last summer, re-signed with the club for three years and $17.5 million after he failed to generate much interest on the free agent market. Blake hit just .251 after the trade, but his 10 home runs and 23 RBIs were critical to the Dodgers' late-season push to the division title. He also became a leader in the clubhouse.

I stand by my claim that Blake was one of the worst signings this off-season. Three years, really? After all, he will turn 36 this August. But anyway, what bothered me is the claim that his "10 home runs and 23 RBIs were critical to the Dodgers' late-season push to the division title". How exactly did Mr. Sports come to this conclusion? After all, Blake hit .280/.333/.400 in close and late situations and only .190/.269/.259 with RISP (many thanks to Retrosheet for the data). How about 0/8 with the bases loaded (no walks)? I'm sure this contribution was so critical that no other player could have provided it. Oh, and he is a leader in the clubhouse.

Russell Martin remains one of the most durable catchers in the game, and the two-time All-Star has shown no signs of slowing down.

Only that Martin did slow down in the second half. A lot! He went from .294/.394/.436 before the break to .260/371/.336 after the break. His power pretty much went AWOL in the second half.

General manager Ned Colletti appeared to be hanging by the thinnest of threads at midseason last year, the result of a handful of bad contracts and the fact the Dodgers couldn't seem to take charge in baseball's weakest division. But that all changed after the acquisitions of Blake and Ramirez turned the Dodgers' season around and led to the club's first National League Championship Series berth since 1988. Torre is a future Hall of Fame manager, if not a Hall of Fame player — the former MVP came up short on the veterans' committee ballot yet again in December — and he managed to get the most out of a notoriously fractured clubhouse last year. He is simply among the best in the business.

I'm not here to bash Joe Torre. But why gets he the praise for "getting the most out of a notoriously fractured clubhouse" (what does that even mean?), but the blame that his team "couldn't seem to take charge in baseball's weakest division" is on the GM (who should indeed be tarred and feather for signing Juan Pierre and Andruw Jones to ludicrous contracts)? That's not fair, is it?

And now to the best part:

Difference maker

Dodgers officials don't expect newly signed, veteran infielder Mark Loretta to bat .300 or hit 20 home runs. They don't even expect him to play all that much. But what they found perhaps most enticing about the Southern California native is what he brings to a clubhouse that should have a dramatically different personality this year. Gone are the perpetually sour Jeff Kent; Brad Penny, who at times seemed to be focused on everything but baseball; and Derek Lowe, a happy-go-lucky sort who never seemed quite as comfortable in Los Angeles as he had been in Boston. Loretta represents something of a 180-degree turn, the type of leader this team has been seeking since Robin Ventura and Jose Lima departed after the 2004 season.

Mark Loretta - difference maker! I don't believe it. He could have taken Manny, Furcal, Billingsley or any other regular for crying out loud, but he goes with a bench player because he is a leader - in the clubhouse. I believe that good chemistry comes naturally when you are winning, but even if you follow Sports' logic, if Kent, Penny and Lowe had been the problem, it's addition by substraction, what do you need Loretta for? The Dodger already have Casey Blake, who is "a leader in the clubhouse", too, if you recall.

Allowedly, our previews on AHP are by no means perfect, but I think my colleagues are doing a pretty good job, especially if you consider that we do the previews in our free time while the guys on Foxsports get paid for them. I think I can expect a little more under those circumstances, can't I?

 
NL East bullpens
Written by Bjoern Hartig (Contact & Archive) on March 09, 2009   

We should be GM's looks at the bullpens in the NL East and asks the readers to vote which one is the best. This is what the Phillies site has to say about the Mets new relief pitchers:

*Francisco Rodriguez/Closer- 76 g, 68.1 ip, 77 k, 62 sv, 2.24 era, 1.29 whip. The major piece of the Mets bullpen reconstruction is the newly crowned single season saves record holder. K-Rod brings instant respect to what was a laughable relief group.

*JJ Putz- 47 g, 46.1 ip, 56 k, 15 sv, 3.88 era, 1.60 whip. Was hindered by injuries last year, but still managed to strikeout far over 1 batter per inning. He would be the Mets bright new shining star at closer if not for K-Rod, so he slips into the setup role...which is just scary from an oppositions viewpoint.

The NL East has come down to the wire the last two seasons and the Mets blew many games in late innings when they faltered down the stretch. K-Rod and Putz should add a few wins over the course of the season and with the Philles losing maybe two wins by replacing Burrell with Ibanez, I can't help but wonder if this will finally be the Mets' year.

 

 
Polanco over Hudson?
Written by Bjoern Hartig (Contact & Archive) on March 08, 2009   

Rotoprofessor examines if Orlando Hudson's signing with the Dodgers imcreased his value as a fantasy option. He is rather cautious.

When it comes to my second baseman, I’d like him to bring something to the table in terms of counting stats.  Give me power potential.  Give me speed potential.  Give me something.  Unfortunately he brings neither, not excessively anyways.

He’s reached double-digit stolen bases once, but seems much more likely to be in the 7-9 range.  Yeah, it helps, but it certainly isn’t something that is going to make me jump at the opportunity to draft him.

He is a 10-15 HR guy as well, nothing more and nothing less. Again, that’s a nice number, but it isn’t going to win anything for you.  It’s solid, but not excessive.

When you compare him to someone like Polanco, things just don’t match up well.  If Hudson were guaranteed to fill the #2 slot, then maybe, but Polanco is guaranteed a spot hitting in front of Miguel Cabrera meaning he could continue to circle the base paths on a regular basis.  He has similar speed and a little less power to Hudson, but a significant potential advantage in runs scored meaning that Polanco remains a better choice.

This is why I will never be a successful fantasy player. It simply baffles me how a player that is so clearly superior can still be just as clearly inferior in fantasy terms.

Rotoprofessor also wonders who the Dodgers will hit second with Hudson, Casey Blake and Russell Martin being the options. Blake, in my opinion, should hit eighth (or ninth), he is clearly worst hitter in the lineup (how did he get three years and $17.5 millions again???), but Martin has a higher OBP than Hudson, so Hudson might indeed find himself in the #7 spot.

 
Baseball humor is a funny thing
Written by Bjoern Hartig (Contact & Archive) on February 24, 2009   

The CEO of the useless information department Jayson Stark brings us this piece of baseball humor:

Lowe said that shortly before he signed with the Braves, he called his pal Maddux and told him, kiddingly: "I want to wear No. 31" -- which, of course, was Maddux's old number. For the record, while the Braves haven't retired No. 31, they also haven't given it to anyone else since Maddux exited.

I can safely say that if Derek Lowe fired that quip out there to most players, they would have laughed and then gone about the rest of their lives. But not Greg Maddux.

"Jokester that he is," Lowe chuckled, "he actually called the Braves and told them he would let me wear No. 31."

Maddux even sounded so earnest when he made that call, the Braves totally bought his act. So GM Frank Wren decided he had to intervene.

"I was getting ready to sign with the Braves when Frank texted me," Lowe said, "and he said, 'We have a problem here. We're not really going to give out No. 31.' Was there any other number I'd like to choose?"

So Lowe said he'd take No. 32 if he had to. And you'd have thought that would have been the end of this. But it wasn't.

The Braves were still so unsure who was kidding and who wasn't that when Wren arrived at Lowe's news conference, he got a call from media relations director Brad Hainje. And the question of the day was: "Which uniform are we using -- 31 or 32?" The GM was pretty sure he had the answer, but not quite sure enough.

"So I actually went to Derek at the press conference and said, 'Derek, what's this about 31? Are you really going to wear 31?' " Wren said. "And he looked at me like: 'What the heck are you talking about?' "

So obviously, Lowe is running around this spring, wearing No. 32. But he also has his very own Braves jersey with No. 31 on the back, as the ultimate souvenir. And somewhere (between pitching wedges, no doubt), Greg Maddux is still laughing.

Maybe I just don't get it, but why is that so funny? I'm pretty sure that the ever humble Greg Maddux really wouldn't mind Lowe wearing No. 31. Maybe the idea that Lowe would even consider wearing Maddux' old number is so ridiculous that it is funny, but the Braves reaction seems quite normal, does it not?

Anyway, there are much better stories of Greg Maddux out there.

 
Whatever happened to Andy Marte?
Written by Bjoern Hartig (Contact & Archive) on February 23, 2009   

Andy Marte, once the next superstar, has hit rock bottom. He has been designated for assignment by the Indians.

At age 25, Marte has played in 163 games and hit a paltry .221/.265/.337. That's bad, really bad. But if you look at his splits, his line against lefthanders from last year was .293/.379/.448 in 34 games. Not exactly all-star caliber and just a small sample size, but I would expect that several team could use a right-handed third baseman that's only 25 years old. Casey Blake hit .253/.313/.460 last season with the Dodgers and got $17.5 million for three years. Andy LaRoche has career stats of .184/.288/.277 in 111 games and will be the starting third baseman of the Pirates. He is a few days older than Marte, too.

If you ask me, there is something else behind that. The Tribe Daily offers some possible answer:

1.) There is another trade looming. Someone showed interest in Andy Marte and the Indians are getting ready to ship him out. For what? Nothing crazy, but if a 30 year old relief pitcher who was busted for PEDs is worth an Isaias Velasquez, I don't think I'm overvaluing a 25 year old power hitting third baseman that was once a top prospect.

Sure, we know he isn't what he was billed up to be, at least he won't be here, but that idea is still out there and someone would give up an Isaias Velasquez to find out, that's how baseball works. So I'm not overvaluing him, we following the team tend to undervalue him because we saw what kind of performance they put up. But there are other teams out there that feel the risk would be well-worth it if he reaches just half of what people thought he could be.

2.) Andy Marte pissed off Eric Wedge. Remember that quote the other day about some people not coming into camp in-shape? Remember how I put my money on Andy Marte being one of those players? If this is all true, I'd put even more money on this being a response to Marte's lack of commitment to getting in better baseball shape.

Maybe it's a combination of both. I would not designate a player for assignment just to teach him to stay in shape. But if a trade is in the workings, why not give Andy a little scar to set him straight?

 
The quest for respectability
Written by Bjoern Hartig (Contact & Archive) on February 23, 2009   

Over at the Hardball Times, Craig Brown analyses which perennial loser has the best chances to finish with a winning record. The candidates are the Washington Nationals, the Baltimore Orioles, the Kansas City Royals and the Pittsburgh Pirates. The Nationals have done the most to improve the team on the market with the acquisition of Adam Dunn. However, the Nationals have also created new problems:

Already stocked with a plethora of corner outfield types, the additions of Dunn and Willingham add to the logjam. Dunn obviously will play somewhere — either left field or first base. If he’s at first, that displaces the oft-injured Nick Johnson, who could be trade bait. The top question in the Nats camp is whether Johnson can recapture the form he showed when he was last healthy in 2006; he hit .290/.428/.520 that year.

First baseman and defensively challenged corner outfielders are usually not too easy to trade, but in Anaheim, designated first baseman Kendry Morales is unproven and if he slumps through the early months, the Angels may be interested to take on Nick Johnson.

Regarding the "loser turns it around" question, my money is on the Kansas City Royals. While the Nationals may have improved the most, they were really, really bad and they still don't have any pitching. The Royals meanwhile have Zach Greinke and some servicable arms (Meche, Bannister) and while their offense is nothing to write home about, they have a solid lead-off man in David DeJesus, two young bats ready to take the next step in Alex Gordon and Billy Butler and they play in the rather mediocre AL Central. I'm not saying that the Royals will be this years Rays (Rockies, Tigers ...), but they have a good chance to be respectable.

 
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