Forty games into baseball’s marathon of a season is probably a good time to sit back and recap just exactly what has happened. There have been surprises and disappointments aplenty. Our At Home Plate staff takes a look at the National League in part two of this two part series.
9. Which team is the biggest surprise in the NL?
Bjoern Hartig – Colorado Rockies – Except for Todd Helton, how many players can you name on this team? Matt Holliday’s OPS is a clean 1.000 and Brad Hawpe’s is even higher. And it’s not just the hitting. Aaron Cook has 5 wins and a 3.28 ERA, while Jeff Francis’ ERA is even better (3.07). It helps that they are playing in the weak NL West, too.
Bob Gallagher – The Mets. I thought their off-season spending spree was fraught with peril. But they’re taking care of business.
Brian Popkin – Cincinnati Reds
Bryan Roth – Cincinnati Reds - Easily the biggest surprise of the season. Who thought they’d be among the best in the NL right now?
Daniel Paulling – Cincinnati Reds. Who knew they would get good pitching from Bronson Arroyo and great production up and down that entire lineup (which includes Rich Aurilia)
Danyel Jones – New York Mets
James Murdock – Cincinnati/Colorado
Jeff Curry – Cincinnati Reds – The Reds are 24-17 and in 2nd place in the NL Central and that's enough for a wildcard spot. Adam Dunn is providing the power and Felipe Lopez is doing a bit of everything. The question is can Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo continue to lead this staff?
Jeff Reppert – Although they’ve fallen back to the pack, the Reds are hitting and pitching with the big boys. Getting Griffey back shouldn’t hurt, but how much longer can they ride Arroyo?
Joe Kirshenbaum – Arizona Diamondbacks
<10. Which team is the biggest disappointment in the NL?
Bjoern Hartig – Pittsburgh Pirates – 2006 was supposed to be the year when the Pirates finally crack .500 again. But now they are 14-30 and only the AAA Florida Marlins have a worse record. What has happened? Jason Bay, Jack and Craig Wilson and Freddy Sanchez are hitting the ball well, but other than them, there’s not much offense on this club right now. And the pitching is really, really bad with Zach Duke pacing the rotation with a 4.19 ERA.
Bob Gallagher – The Dodgers were supposed to be the class of the NL West, weren’t they?
Brian Popkin – Atlanta Braves
Bryan Roth – Chicago Cubs - Ok, so we knew Prior and Wood were going to be slow to get back, but this team is atrocious. The loss of Derrek Lee was huge, but the Cubs can’t be this bad, can they?
Daniel Paulling – Pittsburgh Pirates. Coming into this year, I was highly touting the hiring of Jim Tracy, and they just had so many young, up-and-coming players like Jack Wilson, Jason Bay, Oliver Perez, and Zach Duke. Where did everything go wrong?
Danyel Jones – Florida Marlins
James Murdock – The Cubs. Their offensive production wouldn’t even be acceptable if this were 1906.
Jeff Curry – Chicago Cubs – Unrealistic expectations are a big reason the Cubs land here. Although they've been riddled with injuries, even a healthy lineup wouldn't be enough to please the Wrigley faithful. They have the 4th worst record in the NL and have more than enough healthy talent to be better than that.
Jeff Reppert – Despite injuries to Derrek Lee, Mark Prior and Kerry Wood, the Cubs shouldn’t look like a down-and-out team in the middle of May. Their swoon was supposed to start in July.
Joe Kirshenbaum – Chicago Cubs (although not much of a surprise that they're a disappointment)
11. Who is the NL Cy Young?
Bjoern Hartig – Brandon Webb, Arizona Diamondbacks – Combine a 7-0 record with a 2.44 ERA and you have a clear-cut Cy Young favorite. 48 K in 73.2 IP isn’t exceptional, but against only 8 walks and considering that Webb is an extreme groundball pitcher, it’s easily good enough. And it’s not unlikely that he can keep it up, too.
Bob Gallagher – Pedro Martinez, I guess. He’s a name player, plays in New York, and is having a great year – everything the BBWAA loves.
Brian Popkin – Pedro Martinez
Bryan Roth – Tom Glavine - Same reasoning as the AL winners. Glavine has six wins and a 2.43 ERA, the only categories Cy Young voters seem to care about.
Daniel Paulling – Bronson Arroyo, because he’s led that Reds’ staff, and that’s not an easy thing to do. It seems ridiculous to nominate him now, but let’s give him some press.
Danyel Jones – Bronson Arroyo
James Murdock – I like Brandon Webb, a lot.
Jeff Curry – Pedro Martinez has truly become a master of pitching instead of just throwing. How many people expected his age or injuries to catch up with him this year? He's won 5 of his 8 starts (without a loss) and he's getting more than a strikeout per inning. Friday the 19th my Cy Young candidates face off at Yankee Stadium.
Jeff Reppert – The Cardinals’ Chris Carpenter is getting 2005-Clemens-like run support, but is still among the leaders in ERA and strikeouts.
Joe Kirshenbaum – Pedro Martinez, New York Mets (No clear leader yet, but and while his era is worse than the rest of the contenders, he edges them out with his league lead in strikeouts and 5-0 record.)
12. Who is the NL MVP?
Bjoern Hartig – Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals – Anyone here didn’t pick Pujols? No? Didn’t think so. The fastest player ever to hit 20 home runs is leading the league in OPS, and one has to wonder what else Pujols is able to do. How much longer will he get pitched to when the game is on the line?
Bob Gallagher – Albert Pujols. Consider this my default answer for the next five years.
Brian Popkin – Albert Pujols
Bryan Roth – Albert Pujols. Period.
Daniel Paulling – Albert Pujols for as long as he wants to play baseball.
Danyel Jones – Albert Pujols
James Murdock – Albert Pujols, Albert Pujols, and Albert Pujols. Did I mention Albert Pujols?
Jeff Curry – Albert Pujols is the easy choice. His 19 homers may get him the most exposure but it's the 1.242 OPS (On-Base Percentage + Slugging Percentage) that show his true value to his team. He's also got 48 RBI's and has only struck out 11 times.
Jeff Reppert – Albert Pujols. There is absolutely no doubt.
Joe Kirshenbaum – Albert Pujols, St. Louis Cardinals
13. Which player has been the best acquisition in the NL?
Bjoern Hartig – Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds – Moving to the NL, where hardly any player has ever seen his slider and where he faces a pitcher a couple of times a game, did wonders to Arroyo. 2.40 ERA, 1.08 WHIP and a 3.36 K/BB rate are elite numbers and although it’s unlikely he’ll keep it up, he should be a quality pitcher for the Reds, something they didn’t have for quite a while.
Bob Gallagher – Bronson Arroyo. He won’t win the Cy Young, but he’s been a useful part in Cincinnati.
Brian Popkin – Carlos Delgado
Bryan Roth – Carlos Delgado - It’s not like this was going to be a surprise. He’s already proved to be more successful in 40 games than all the guys who played first for the Mets last season.
Daniel Paulling – Carlos Delgado, because he’s brought respectability to the Mets’ middle of the lineup.
Danyel Jones – Carlos Delgado
James Murdock – One might be tempted to say Bronson Arroyo, but one would be wrong. I’m still impressed with the Padres’ ability to get Chris Young from the Rangers for virtually nothing.
Jeff Curry – Alfonzo Soriano – The Nationals desperately needed power and decided to take on Soriano and his baggage. He reluctantly agreed to play outfield and has rewarded the Nats with 13 HRs and 91 total bases so far.
Jeff Reppert – Bronson Arroyo has solidified a Cincinnati rotation in need of someone to step up. Little did they know he would help boost their offense as well?
Joe Kirshenbaum – Bronson Arroyo, Cincinnati Reds
14. Which player has been the worst acquisition in the NL?
Bjoern Hartig – Doug Mirabelli, San Diego Padres – The Padres acquired C Mirabelli in a trade from the Red Sox for 2B Mark Loretta, a deal that raised some eyebrows since Mirabelli was only a backup catcher in Boston. Then San Diego went on to sign Mike Piazza. A few weeks into the season, San Diego dealt Mirabelli back to Boston because his replacement couldn’t catch Tim Wakefield’s knuckleball. They got a decent package back, so it’s not like the whole Mirabelli-Affair was a disaster or anything, but this doesn’t really say that the front office is having a plan, does it?
Bob Gallagher – Early days yet, and perhaps a bit unfair, but Juan Pierre hasn’t been any good this year.
Brian Popkin – Juan Pierre
Bryan Roth – Corey Koskie - He hasn’t produced much and before JJ Hardy's injury, he was blocking Bill Hall from being an everyday player, something he needs to be.
Daniel Paulling – Juan Pierre -- how long can you keep a slumping veteran in the lineup? With Dusty Baker, the remainder of the season.
Danyel Jones – Preston Wilson
James Murdock – Juan Pierre, at the moment, but even I find it hard to believe that he’ll hit .229 for a full season.
Jeff Curry – Vinny Castilla – He was brought in to provide the power at third that Sean Burroughs couldn't. He has only 1 HR and 10 RBI's in 124 at bats and almost as many strikeouts as hits.
Jeff Reppert – Preston Wilson has almost 50 strikeouts and only a handful of walks for Houston. An undisciplined hitter who’s never been this undisciplined.
Joe Kirshenbaum – Juan Pierre (It kind of goes to show what happens when someone who relies on pure speed to do everything loses the smallest bit of their speed)
15. What surprise won’t continue in the NL?
Bjoern Hartig – Cincinnati Reds – The lack of pitching, Aaron Harang and Bronson Arroyo notwithstanding, will catch up with them. The Reds will have a fine season by their standards, but they are not contenders.
Bob Gallagher – The Reds. Arroyo has been good, and Harang has improved, but I’m not convinced their pitching will hold up through the summer.
Brian Popkin – Cincinnati Reds
Bryan Roth – Cincinnati Reds - The pitching has been great, but it just can’t continue. Eventually this staff will turn back into the pumpkin it was last season.
Daniel Paulling – Hanley Ramirez and Dan Uggla being worthy of All Star consideration. The remainder of the league will catch up to them eventually.
Danyel Jones – Colorado Rockies
James Murdock – Cincinnati/Colorado. Not with those rotations.
Jeff Curry – Cincinnati Reds as a playoff team. They simply don't have enough arms to keep ahead of the other teams looking to bring them down.
Jeff Reppert – At some point, aren’t the Colorado boys supposed to remember that they’re the Rockies and they’re too young? The NL West will still be a dogfight, though.
Joe Kirshenbaum – Barry Bonds’ slump (he's too good for him not to pick up)
16. What surprise will continue in the NL?
Bjoern Hartig – Colorado Rockies – I have no idea what the Rockies are going to do over the next 100 games, but it would be cool if they could stay in the race late in the season just because nobody saw that coming. And unlike the Reds, they are in the NL West where .500 ball might be good enough to do that.
Bob Gallagher – Mets and Phillies battling for the NL East Title.
Brian Popkin – Brad Penny
Bryan Roth – Houston Astros - They weren’t supposed to be this good this early in the season even though they went to the World Series last year. With Roger Clemens *probably* coming back within the next three weeks, the Astros are going to be a very good team for the rest of the way.
Daniel Paulling – The Colorado Rockies’ good play, because they’ve got some good players on offense, some more on the way, and just enough pitching to beat those other weak clubs in the West.
Danyel Jones – The Mets
James Murdock – If anyone is surprised by anything that Prince Fielder has done this year, don’t be.
Jeff Curry – Milwaukee Brewer pitching. They lead the NL in WHIP and are second in K's/9 innings. The return of Ben Sheets will only solidify this emerging staff.
Jeff Reppert – Since the Braves have won the division the last three hundred years, it’s somewhat a surprise that they look as sloppy as they have. Maybe this really is the year that the streak ends?
Joe Kirshenbaum – The NL West having the best cumulative record. (It's not that the division is much better than we thought, although it is a little better, it's just that the other NL divisions are much worse than we thought.)
17. What’s the best story line so far this season?
Bjoern Hartig – Hard to pick one, but I’d say it’s Jim Thome’s resurgence. Even better is that Bonds hitting his 714th home run isn’t such a great story after all. Who cares? Certainly not me. And it’s becoming clearer and clearer that Aaron’s record is going to be safe for a few more years since Barry is slowly falling apart.
Bob Gallagher – On the field: Albert Pujols’ greatness. Off the field: a tie between the fate of the Marlins, and the new CBA (specifically, will contraction come into play again?).
Brian Popkin – Dominance of the old Pitchers: Glavine, Rogers, Maddux, Schilling…
Bryan Roth – Anna Benson being shut up - In hopes of not jinxing it, the stripper/house wife/model/bullhorn has been completely silent since her divorce/changing of her mind/reconciliation with hubby Kris Benson. It’s a good thing Baltimore isn’t the media mouthpiece New York can be.
Daniel Paulling – We’re all getting to see Albert Pujols in the prime of his career
Danyel Jones – Too many, it may not be the best but Barry Bonds catching up to Babe Ruth’s home run record.
James Murdock – Anything that doesn’t involve bashing Barry Bonds.
Jeff Curry – Watching teams like the Tigers, Brewers, and Reds achieve some success after years of futility.
Jeff Reppert – Albert Pujols will have an outside chance at the Quadruple Crown – Homers, RBI, Runs and BA.
Joe Kirshenbaum – Bonds chasing Babe Ruth.
Daniel is an AtHomePlate blogger; to see his article archive, click here.
Bjoern Hartig is the AtHomePlate Angels blogger.
Bob Gallagher and James Murdock share the Palatial Baseball Blog at http://palatialbaseballblog.blogspot.com/
Bryan Roth is the Prospect Pulse blogger
