Expert
Predictions: The AL Central
|
| Scott Barzilla | Bryan Roth | Bjoern Hartig | Daniel Paulling |
| White Sox | White Sox | White Sox | Indians |
| Indians | Indians | Indians | White Sox |
| Twins | Twins | Twins | Twins |
| Tigers | Tigers | Tigers | Tigers |
| Royals | Royals | Royals | Royals |
Daniel
Paulling
Cleveland Indians – What? I picked against
the defending world champion Chicago White Sox? Why, I believe
I did. The Indians had the second-best record (behind only the
Yankees) from May 8th on last season, so you know they’ve
got the talent to compete at the top of any division. The team
started out in a tremendous slump and will most likely avoiding
digging such a tremendous hole again this year. A good offense,
bullpen, and decent starting rotation will be enough to pass by
the Chicago White Sox and into the postseason.
Chicago White Sox – Speaking of defending world champions, they will likely finish in second place, but will do well enough for a Wild Card. I know about the additions of Javy Vazquez and Jim Thome, but the Indians have upgraded a lot around diamond, if only by giving their youngsters one more year of development. Make no mistake about it: this team has a chance to repeat because of the amazing depth in the starting rotation and bullpen.
Minnesota Twins – The Twinkies are counting on too much to go right on offense for them to get out of third place. After all, Joe Mauer needs to develop a couple years in one season, Justin Morneau needs to shake off bone chips in his elbow, and Jason Kubel needs to get rid of the rust that has been accumulating for about the last year. They’ll still be a very fine team with the best pitcher in the American League, but until they find some more bats, they’re stuck in neutral. And, no, Tony Batista does not count as a bat.
Detroit Tigers – After losing 119 games a few seasons ago, the Tigers spent some money and slowly have been closing in on respectability. They can be an example for all the owners out there who complain about losing all the time. The rotation will be a year closer to contending, with Justin Verlander ready to impress scouts. The bats will need some help sooner or later, but this isn’t a bad place for the team to be considering where they have been.
Kansas City
Royals – With the exception of the National League
East, the Kansas City Royals would finish dead last. They lack
any decent pitcher, especially with their “ace” Mark
Redman down because of knee problems. The only way to
salvage this season is if veterans like Doug Mientkiewicz,
Mark Grudzielanek, and Reggie Sanders
hit and Zach Greinke comes back from his personal
issues rejuvenated and ready to dominate. That’s probably
not going to happen.
Bjoern
Hartig
Chicago White Sox - Last year, the White Sox
outperformed their Pythagorean record by 8 games and had a 61
– 34 record in close games. While some concluded the White
Sox got lucky in 2005, I attribute it to their pitching and ability
to score via home run as well as via small ball. They lost Aaron
Rowand and his D in center field, but rookie Brian
Anderson doesn’t present a major drop-off, while
additions Javier Vazquez and especially Jim
Thome can be huge. If Thome stays healthy, no one can
take the division from them and even if not, they are still the
favorites.
Cleveland Indians - The Indians didn’t exactly improve themselves in the off-season for this year, losing big parts of their bullpen that were phenomenal (Riske, Howry, Rhodes), replacing ERA-leader Kevin Millwood and right-hander Scott Elarton with Paul Byrd and Jason Johnson, and dealing away Coco Crisp. The offense should still be fine, with OBP-machine Jason Michaels replacing Crisp and 3B Aaron Boone up for a rebound or to be replaced by prospect Andy Marte. The rotation will allow a few more runs this year, but the bullpen will be the key and the big unknown. If it is lights out once again, they can challenge the White Sox; if it’s really bad, the Twins will overtake them; but if it’s average, the Indians might still be good enough to take the wild card.
Minnesota Twins - The Twins are a great defensive team and they have some good pitching in starters Johan Santana and Brad Radke or closer Joe Nathan, but their offense is suspect. Other than DH Rondell White, there is no player on the team that posted an OPS above .800 last year. 1B Justin Morneau has 30-HR potential, but hasn’t realized it yet. The Twins have always found ways to win without a big bopper, but for them to challenge the Indians and the White Sox, absolutely everything has to go right. If they lose a major contributor for an extended period, they might see the Tigers creep up from behind and go past them.
Detroit Tigers - Giving $18 million for two years to a 41 year old pitcher who had 87 Ks, a .323 batting average against, and P.R. issues last season represents the most stupid contract this winter to me, but it seems like I’m the only one who thinks so. But it still shows where the Tigers’ problem lies: Pitching. Jeremy Bonderman is a jewel, but after him, there’s not much to like. The offense can be really good if Magglio Ordonez stays healthy, but that’s a big IF. Also, Ivan Rodriguez simply refused to walk last season and this might have been the beginning of the end for him. If everything goes their way, the Tigers can finally get above .500 again, but there are too many question marks on this team, so they will finish somewhere between 70-80 wins.
Kansas City
Royals - The Royals spent more than $30 million dollars
on mediocre and/or old veterans this off-season in an attempt
to avoid losing 100 games for a third straight year. The lineup
is solid and will probably score more runs than the Twins, but
their pitching is probably certainly the worst in the majors.
The only bright spots are some younger arms in the pen. If the
front office decides mid-season to do the right thing and deal
away some useful veterans like Mike Sweeney, Reggie Sanders,
or Matt Stairs for prospects, the Royals might challenge
the 1962 Mets and their 120 losses, but even if they decide to
keep the players, the Royals will have a hard time winning 63
games.
Scott Barzilla
Chicago White Sox - They say that pitching wins
championships and the White Sox have pitching in spades. The White
Sox had four pitchers with 200 or more innings. All they did in
the off-season was pick up another pitcher that has had a minimum
of 198 innings over the last six seasons. The Sox won’t
need much of a bullpen with that rotation, but Bobby Jenks
has the look of a solid closer anyway. I’m not sure if I’m
a big fan of the Jim Thome acquisition, but if
he returns to 2000-2004 form, he will be the missing big bat in
their lineup.
Cleveland Indians - Mark Shapiro sent shockwaves through the league when he signed Grady Sizemore to a six year contract. Sizemore doesn’t even have two years service time, but the signing signals that the Indians are ready to retake the spot they held in the mid 1990s. Sizemore accompanies a very strong lineup. Coco Crisp is gone, but the Tribe replaced him with Jason Michaels. Andy Marte and Kelly Shoppach came in the deal for Crisp, and the two could be a part of their future as well. Truth be told they are probably a year away, but they are the team of the future.
Minnesota Twins - While the White Sox have the best rotation, the Twins have the best bullpen in the division. Brad Radke and Johan Santana are nice on top of the rotation, but they are going to need help from people like Kyle Lohse to step up and be big. I like the acquisition of Luis Castillo, but this offense doesn’t have the firepower to keep up with the Indians and White Sox.
Detroit Tigers - The sudden retirement of Troy Percival and the imprisonment of Ugueth Urbina has turned a very good bullpen into an average one. Todd Jones has been hit and miss his entire career, but he returns to the place where he had his most success. Kenny Rogers takes over as the team’s ace, but pitchers like Jeremy Bonderman and Mike Maroth will tell the tale. The offense still has Pudge Rodriguez, Magglio Ordonez, and Dmitri Young, but it was Craig Monroe and Brandon Inge who surprised last year. Sadly, the Tigers are missing that one big bat needed to make a run.
Kansas City
Royals - The Royals are not as bad as people think. They’ve
added the likes of Doug Mientkiewicz, Mark Grudzielanek,
and Reggie Sanders. Scott Elarton was
added to the mound. When you throw in Matt Stairs, Mike
Sweeney, Emil Brown, and David DeJesus you can see why
the Royals might be more competitive than most people think. The
pitching staff is going to need more than a few Scott Elartons
to get this team back into contention though.
Bryan Roth
Chicago White Sox (102-60) - There's no way I
can pick against the defending champs. This is a team that not
only kept the core of last year's championship team together,
but added to it significantly with the additions of Jim
Thome and Javier Vazquez. The team's pitching depth is
phenomenal, although GM Ken Williams should have definitely traded
Jon Garland while he had the chance. While no
one in the rotation will blow you away, every starter is solid
from 1 to 5. Brandon McCarthy is an excellent
6th man in case of emergencies. The added pop of Thome could add
a few runs to the team's output and new center fielder Brian
Anderson will be a carbon copy of Aaron Rowand
offensively and close defensively.
Cleveland Indians (93-69) - Aside from the last second collapse, the 2006 version of the Indians will be just as good, if not better, than last year's. Even though Kevin Millwood enjoyed the success of arguably his best season, his departure isn't that big of a deal. Jason Johnson and Paul Byrd will eat innings and Cliff Lee will take the next step forward. As usual, the offense will chug along and will be helped by a full season of Travis Hafner. Although they won't win the division, Cleveland will be in the Wild Card hunt the whole way through.
Minnesota Twins (85-77) - Even with improvements in the field (a full season of Justin Morneau and Luis Castillo) and in pitching (Francisco Liriano and Scott Baker) I'm not sold that this team will be THAT much better than last year. It's still a team with an offense that's going to have a tough time to score with no serious power threats against the rest of a division chock full of solid pitching. Giving the Twins a couple extra wins for 2006 was based on the fact that they improve in some areas, but still have to play even more improved teams in Chicago and Cleveland. Even Detroit won't roll over and die, so the Twins will have a hard time improving dramatically over 2005.
Detroit Tigers (77-85) - This team is really starting to turn a corner and it’s about time. While the offense isn’t spectacular, it’s solid at every position. Potentially getting full seasons out of Placido Polanco, Magglio Ordonez, and Chris Shelton will make a bigger difference than most people expect. The Tigers’ pitching staff finished right in the middle of the pack in the AL team ERA race and should hover right around 4.30. The biggest downside for Detroit is they play in arguably the most competitive division in baseball. With all their young talent, this team could surprise. But, there’s too much talent on the other teams in the central for the Tigers not to be tamed.
Kansas City Royals (70-92) – The Kansas City Royals, the perennial whooping post of the division, won’t get any better in 2006. Even though GM Allan Baird was able to convince a bunch of average veterans to come play for the Royals, players with little offensive upside on the downward part of their careers generally don’t make good investments if you want to win. The spots are just being kept warm for the intriguing group of prospects waiting in the wings.
Daniel is an AtHomePlate blogger; to see his article archive, click here.
Bjoern Hartig
is the Angels' Blogger
Scott Barzilla
is the author of “Checks and Imbalances,” “The
State of Baseball Management,” and is looking forward to
his release of “On the Outside Looking” at the end
of 2006.
Bryan Roth is the
Prospect Pulse Blogger
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