Expert
Predictions: The AL East
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| Scott Barzilla | Bryan Roth | Bjoern Hartig | Daniel Paulling |
| Red Sox | Yankees | Red Sox | Yankees |
| Yankees | Blue Jays | Blue Jays | Blue Jays |
| Blue Jays | Red Sox | Yankees | Red Sox |
| Devil Rays | Orioles | Devil Rays | Orioles |
| Orioles | Devil Rays | Orioles | Devil Rays |
Daniel Paulling
New York Yankees – This franchise will
be putting up the best offense in the Major Leagues this year,
there’s no doubt about that! Damon and Jeter
will be leading off for one of the best middle of the lineups
in recent history. Combine that with the facts that general manager
Brian Cashman has been given the thumbs up to run the franchise
on his own, there’s a totally rebuilt bullpen, and the starting
rotation figures to be more solid next season, and you’ve
got a team that could win 100 games.
Toronto Blue Jays – The New Jays added plenty of firepower to their lineup, bringing in two corner infielders (Lyle Overbay and Troy Glaus) who should mash. The pitching staff has been drastically altered with A.J. Burnett at the top behind a healthy Roy Halladay, giving them two good arms in front of Gustavo Chacin, Ted Lilly, and company. The bullpen features one of the best closers from last season in B.J. Ryan, which should help take some of those close losses into victories.
Boston Red Sox – They finished second last year in the AL East behind the Yankees, and this year they’re going to drop a spot. The team features four new infielders, which is probably three too many. There are three “outs” in this lineup with J.T. Snow, Alex Gonzalez, and Mike Lowell. Combine that with a downgrade in center field and starting rotation, and you’ve got something bad about to happen in Beantown.
Baltimore Orioles – Many people are picking the Devil Rays to climb out of the cellar, but don’t forget about the addition of Leo Mazzone. The pitching coach should fix whatever problems the talented Erik Bedard and Daniel Cabrera have, which should give them a formidable one-two punch. Add in veteran arms like Rodrigo Lopez, Bruce Chen, and Kris Benson, and you’ve got one good rotation. The bullpen will be questionable, but the offense should pick up some of the slack.
Tampa Bay Devil
Rays – The D-Rays are about to break out, I promise.
Fan interest will be saved when outfielder Delmon Young,
shortstop B.J. Upton, and first baseman Wes
Bankston come up and start playing everyday. For now,
you’ll have to rely on the free parking and allowing of
bringing food and drink into the park as the best reason to see
a Devil Rays game. However, the young kids will be a great scene,
despite a losing record once again.
Bjoern
Hartig
Boston Red Sox - They have the best pitching
in the division if Schilling and Foulke are healthy,
which seems to be the case. Their line-up is generally overhauled,
but Ramirez and Ortiz are returning, the drop-off
from Damon to crisp is smaller than most think and I’d like
to see what a Pena/Nixon platoon can do in right
field. Alex Gonzalez is a downgrade offensively
over nearly everybody, but Renteria didn’t
actually tear up the ball last year. Lowell is
bound for a comeback and even if he’s done, Youkilis
can return to 3B and Choi can finally show what
he can do at first. This will be the year the Red Sox finally
take the division from the Yankees.
Toronto Blue Jays - I have to admit, this may be wishful thinking, but with all these off-season acquisitions, I like the Blue Jays more than the Yankees. Glaus, Wells, and Hillenbrand are not A-Rod, Sheffield, and Giambi, but the Blue Jays do have some pop and I like their pitching more than the Yankees’. Of course, for this prediction to come true, Halladay and Burnett both have to stay relatively healthy and this in itself may be wishful thinking.
New York Yankees - Come on, do you really think a rotation that is headed by a 42- and 37-year-old can win a division? And sooner or later, Small, Wang and Chacon will lose their 2005 magic and pitch like they are supposed to, especially in the tough AL East. Sure, the Yankees have some pop, but Sheffield and Giambi are not getting any younger. Neither is DH Bernie Williams. And don’t get me started about the defense. I still haven’t figured out how Derek Jeter could win a gold glove at short while playing in the same league as Orlando Cabrera, but any team that plays Jason Giambi in the field more than twice a week just does not deserve to finish higher than third.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays - I like Scott Kazmir and I think that Casey Fossum could have a decent ERA outside of the AL East. McClung, Jackson, and Waechter were all awful last year, but at least they are young. So is the line-up, but with much more talent. The only thing that could hurt the Rays record is the fact that they are probably trying to deal away all their veterans at the deadline. Still, with a new management in town and former Angels bench coach Joe Maddon taking over as the new manager, I think there is so much excitement in Tampa that it will carry the Devil Rays to their best finish in years.
Baltimore Orioles
- I had a hard time picking the Devil Rays to finish
forth, but the only reasons for that are Daniel Cabrera and Leo
Mazzone. So the O’s got Ramon Hernandez, but
he sure isn’t the impact signing Miguel Tejada was
looking for. Neither are Kevin Millar or Jeff Conine.
Sure, Melvin Mora, Brian Roberts and Tejada are
fine players and Cabrera could be one of the top pitchers in the
AL, but there just isn’t enough talent on this team to avoid
finishing at the bottom if the O’s don’t start like
they did in 2005. Mazzone will probably get something out of the
Baltimore pitchers that nobody else saw in them, but even he cannot
turn lead into gold.
Scott Barzilla
Boston Red Sox - Bashing the Red Sox is a popular tact
this off-season, but I like what they’ve done. The acquisition
of Josh Beckett gives them another good starter
to accompany a hopefully healthy Curt Schilling.
The addition of Julian Tavarez and David Riske
to the bullpen will also help the pitching staff. The keys of
the season will be whether players like Keith Foulke,
Mike Lowell, and Schilling bounce back from sub-par 2005
campaigns.
New York Yankees - The Yankees added talent as they always do, but their problems remain the same. They will score runs by the bushel, but they will give up runs by the bushel too. Make no mistake, they may make a run at the franchise record of 1067 runs scored from 1931, but they have an old pitching staff and a horrible defense. The combination will keep them from winning another division crown.
Toronto Blue Jays - Every off-season there is a team that wins the Hot Stove League and disappoints in the regular season. It might be a stretch to call the Blue Jays a probable disappointment, but considering the amount of cash they dropped on B.J. Ryan, A.J. Burnett, and Bengie Molina you would think they were on their way to the playoffs. Lyle Overbay and Troy Glaus are nice additions, but they will miss Orlando Hudson’s defense.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays - Yes, you are seeing this right. The Devil Rays will break out of the basement for the first time. The new baseball staff will make the Devil Rays faithful forget about the incompetence of Chuck LeMar. They aren’t ready yet to contend, but if they can get more talent for Julio Lugo and Aubrey Huff, they will be prepared to make a serious run in 2007 and beyond.
Baltimore Orioles
- Looking at the off-season almost makes you feel sorry for Miguel
Tejada. Almost. A club that needed pitching could only
muster a trade for Kris Benson. Unless Anna can
pitch too, they will be in trouble. They are still looking for
a closer and their only major free agent acquisition plays the
same position as Javier Lopez (one of their major
pieces). Look for Tejada to be dealt before the trading deadline.
Bryan Roth
New York Yankees (96-66) - I swear this is the
last season for a while that I pick the Yankees to finish in first.
It’s certainly hard to pick against any team that’s
won their division eight straight times, especially when they
add Johnny Damon to their lineup. It’s
fair to assume that this team will score about 900 runs, which
will make them one of the best offenses in baseball. The only
question, as always, will be their pitching. In the end, Brian
Cashman and crew will figure out a way to plug in starters as
necessary and get enough wins out of Randy Johnson and
Mike Mussina to get a ninth straight AL East crown.
Toronto Blue Jays (93-69) - Surprising? I’ve already showed just how well I think the Jays will do in 2006, so maybe this isn’t too big a surprise. The addition of Bengie Molina, Lyle Overbay, and Troy Glaus will be great for this offense and if A.J. Burnett can shake the lingering affects of his Tommy John surgery, there’s no reason this club can’t win at least 90 games. From my previous article, I guessed that Toronto can win between 92-94 games, so I’m just splitting the difference. An improvement in record against New York and Boston will help account for an extra spot in the standings.
Boston Red Sox (92-70) - After last year’s dead heat between the Yanks and Sawx, I don’t see any difference atop the division this year as far as competition goes. Boston has too much faith lying in Josh Beckett and Curt Schilling for this season to be as perfect as people think it will be. Beckett has never pitched more than 178 innings and did so last year, easily his most worked. I really think Schilling will bounce back from 2005, but won’t be in 2004 form. Less run support and worrisome pitching will be the downfall of the Red Sox in 2006, but 92 wins aren’t that bad for a “rebuilding” year.
Baltimore Orioles (80-82) - I feel like I’m being generous here, but I truly think that Leo Mazzone will make a huge difference with this pitching staff. Erik Bedard and Daniel Cabrera are both ready to take a step forward and will look like the staff aces they’re supposed to be starting this season. In the end, it all comes down to the fact they still have to fight the Yankees, Blue Jays, and Red Sox for division supremacy. In just about any other division other than the AL West, this team could fight to be in the top half of the division.
Tampa Bay Devil Rays (70-92) - As the perennial cellar dwellers of the AL East, the Rays have gotten used to looking up at everyone else. This year will be the beginning of something different. The Tampa farm system is stacked to the brim with position prospects and new GM Andrew Friedman will finally start trading all the unnecessary parts to start building the solid pitching needed to compete in this division. This season will go down as the year that the Devil Rays started acting like a real franchise and begin a slow ascension toward the top.
Daniel is an AtHomePlate blogger; to see his article archive, click here.
Bjoern Hartig
is the Angels' Blogger
Scott Barzilla
is the author of “Checks and Imbalances,” “The
State of Baseball Management,” and is looking forward to
his release of “On the Outside Looking” at the end
of 2006.
Bryan Roth is the
Prospect Pulse Blogger
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