At Home Plate - Cardinals overpay for Holliday

Written by Daniel Paulling (Contact & Archive) on January 05, 2010

Matt Holliday, on The Doug Gottlieb Show on ESPN Radio on Tuesday, announced that he would be returning to the St. Louis Cardinals. He said the deal is for seven years and about $120 million, an AAV of a little more than $17.1 million a season.

The Cardinals greatly overpaid for Holliday. It's not that he isn't worth the money. It's that there was no one else in the bidding for Holliday.

The Yankees have long said they wouldn't spend big money on a free agent addition after their latest moves. The Giants weren't going to be major factors in the chase for Holliday. The Orioles bowed out early in the process, while the Red Sox weren't going to sign Holliday after bringing in John Lackey and Mike Cameron. The Mets didn't have the money or necessity after bringing in Jason Bay. The Cubs don't have the money to make a major move, and the same applied to the Dodgers.

The Angels were, realistically, the only team with the need and (perhaps) the financial situation to compete with the Cardinals. But they were more likely to chase the pitchers available on the free agent market, whether it was Lackey or Javier Vazquez, than a high profile outfielder.

The Cardinals were the only team seriously in the bidding for Holliday. And it was certain that he would return to the Cardinals. This was a situation perhaps perfectly reminiscent of Manny Ramirez from last season. It was rumored Ramirez was looking for a four-year deal worth $100 million. He ended up with two years and something around $50 million.

There just wasn't a huge market for Ramirez's services. Plus, it made too much sense for him to go back to the Dodgers.

The Cardinals didn't follow the model and save themselves some money. Yes, they needed Holliday. Badly. But Holliday needed the Cardinals. There weren't any other teams willing to shell out the big bucks.

The Cardinals could have used this leverage better in their negotiations. They could've offered a five-year deal worth $75 million, an AAV of $15 million. Where else was Holliday going to get a bigger deal? No where. There just wasn't a market for him. The Cardinals should've realized this.

Albert Pujols will be a free agent eventually, and the Cardinals are going to need every dollar bill they have to bring him back. Too bad they spent too many in overpaying Holliday.

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Comments (168)

You said it yourself in your article.. "not that he is not worth the money" meaning one thing, he is worth the money. Were the birds bidding against themselves? No. They wanted to get the deal done A.S.A.P to make further moves. Thats a no brainer. Sure we all had and idea that Holliday would end up in St. Louis but it very well could have been the Tex situation all over again (not specifically the Yanks but anyone including the Angels and yes.. possible the Os) The deferred contract was a great plan from Mo and I honestly think the Cards got a great deal considering Bay signed for 500K less and has to play in the Mets new field.. Not good (i.e David Wright) Wright will never hit 25 plus home runs while playing in New York nor will Jason Bay. The only down side to the whole Holiday/Cardinals situation is why did the Cards offer 7 years with an option? Its obvious Holliday wont be Holliday at age 37 but that is what Boras was looking for and that is what Boras got. Oh and one more thing, there is absolutely no way the Cardinals front office set themselves up to loose Albert Pujols. You dont have to be a sports analyst to figure that on out.

How do you know who was in on Holliday or what they were bidding?

The Cardinals said they decided to meet Holliday's demands because they ultimately thought he was worth it. But they were concerned not of being outbid on a longterm deal. They were worried that agent Scott Boras would decide to solicit a one-year contract and take Holliday back on the open market next season.

That was a risk the Cardinals didn't want to take and they got their man for a price they can live with.

We don't know for sure if he'll be worth the money, but I'm guessing he will be. But this is an example of simple economics: If the demand isn't that high, the value drops. No one wanted Holliday for that much money. Why not offer less and save yourself some cash and have more payroll flexibility? This is how the Cardinals overpaid him. He's a commodity, and you're supposed to buy commodities as cheaply as possible.

As for making future moves, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch had a good article saying the Cardinals have about $7.5 million for four positions, one of which is a starting pitcher. That's definitely not much payroll flexibility.

The Cardinals definitely don't want to lose Pujols, but you have to admit: It's a possibility. It's going to be difficult to keep Holliday, Pujols, Wainwright and Carpenter locked up beyond 2011. You could say Carpenter is the first to go, but you've got to replace him somehow.

The Yankees and Giants came out and said they were not in the bidding for Holliday. It was reported the Sawx offered the money they eventually gave to Lackey to Holliday and once Holliday rejected it, they gave it to Holliday. It's also been reported the Orioles bowed out after their initial bid of $70 or so million was rejected. As for the other clubs, I just looked at their financial situation and figured they wouldn't be able to pay for Holliday. As Johnny said, it was likely that Holliday was going back to the Cardinals.

I could understand Boras' desire to get his guy back on the market next year and use that as leverage, but the free agent market is going to be stacked next season: Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, Lance Berkman (potentially), Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, Javy Vazquez, Brandon Webb, among others. Where are you going to get your money should the economy continue like this?

Frankly, I'm not sure the Cardinals didn't overpay for Holliday - period. But even if he's worth it (again, I don't think so - those career numbers are highly inflated by both Coors & the prototypical contract year performance) why, why, why would they give him such a large contract? My guess is to appease the fans when Pujols is long gone - trust me, he will be. What an affront to Pujols that Matt Holliday makes more money than him.

Jenny, I disagree. I think signing Holliday was the next step in courting Pujols. Pujols wanted protection in the lineup. He put pressure on the front office by saying he wouldn't negotiate an extension until he saw the direction of the club. In other words, get a big bopper in the cleanup spot for me.
Pujols will get his money from the Cardinals -- they would be idiotic not to keep him forever. The question is, can they field a competitive team while spending so much on two players?

Daniel, a few notes.

1. I'm not sure it's fair to say the Cardinals didn't need to worry about the Angels because they were more likely to go after Lackey or Vazquez. They had already lost out on both and had plenty of time to jump back in. I'm sure Boras would have loved to bring the Angels in on this, if Moreno would kiss and make up with him.
2. What's with the phrase "perhaps perfectly reminiscent of Manny Ramirez?" If you need to couch the example with "perhaps" then it's probably not a "perfect" analogy. Just sayin.

Johnny you nailed it. Almost word for word!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Jenny do you noy know the structure of the contract, this is to solidify pujols stays.

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I could understand Boras' desire to get his guy back on the market next year and use that as leverage, but the free agent market is going to be stacked next season: Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, Lance Berkman (potentially), Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, Javy Vazquez, Brandon Webb, among others. Where are you going to get your money should the economy continue like this?

They should really careful about this. the cardinal issue is not a small one, they should be prepare the risk. no matter what.

Very well done!

This is the perfect blog for anyone who wants to know about this topic. You know so much its almost hard to argue with you (not that I really would want…HaHa). You definitely put a new spin on a subject thats been written about for years. Great stuff, just great!

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Matt Holliday, on The Doug Gottlieb Show on ESPN Radio on Tuesday, announced that he would be returning to the St. Louis Cardinals. He said the deal is for seven years and about $120 million, an AAV of a little more than $17.1 million a season.

The Cardinals greatly overpaid for Holliday. It's not that he isn't worth the money. It's that there was no one else in the bidding for Holliday.

The Yankees have long said they wouldn't spend big money on a free agent addition after their latest moves. The Giants weren't going to be major factors in the chase for Holliday. The Orioles bowed out early in the process, while the Red Sox weren't going to sign Holliday after bringing in John Lackey and Mike Cameron. The Mets didn't have the money or necessity after bringing in Jason Bay. The Cubs don't have the money to make a major move, and the same applied to the Dodgers.

The Angels were, realistically, the only team with the need and (perhaps) the financial situation to compete with the Cardinals. But they were more likely to chase the pitchers available on the free agent market, whether it was Lackey or Javier Vazquez, than a high profile outfielder.

The Cardinals were the only team seriously in the bidding for Holliday. And it was certain that he would return to the Cardinals. This was a situation perhaps perfectly reminiscent of Manny Ramirez from last season. It was rumored Ramirez was looking for a four-year deal worth $100 million. He ended up with two years and something around $50 million.

There just wasn't a huge market for Ramirez's services. Plus, it made too much sense for him to go back to the Dodgers.

The Cardinals didn't follow the model and save themselves some money. Yes, they needed Holliday. Badly. But Holliday needed the Cardinals. There weren't any other teams willing to shell out the big bucks.

The Cardinals could have used this leverage better in their negotiations. They could've offered a five-year deal worth $75 million, an AAV of $15 million. Where else was Holliday going to get a bigger deal? No where. There just wasn't a market for him. The Cardinals should've realized this.

Albert Pujols will be a free agent eventually, and the Cardinals are going to need every dollar bill they have to bring him back. Too bad they spent too many in overpaying Holliday.
Recommend article: BallHype: hype it up!
Comments (45)
Cardinals dod not in anyway overpay for Holliday
1 Friday, 08 January 2010 19:01
Johnny
You said it yourself in your article.. "not that he is not worth the money" meaning one thing, he is worth the money. Were the birds bidding against themselves? No. They wanted to get the deal done A.S.A.P to make further moves. Thats a no brainer. Sure we all had and idea that Holliday would end up in St. Louis but it very well could have been the Tex situation all over again (not specifically the Yanks but anyone including the Angels and yes.. possible the Os) The deferred contract was a great plan from Mo and I honestly think the Cards got a great deal considering Bay signed for 500K less and has to play in the Mets new field.. Not good (i.e David Wright) Wright will never hit 25 plus home runs while playing in New York nor will Jason Bay. The only down side to the whole Holiday/Cardinals situation is why did the Cards offer 7 years with an option? Its obvious Holliday wont be Holliday at age 37 but that is what Boras was looking for and that is what Boras got. Oh and one more thing, there is absolutely no way the Cardinals front office set themselves up to loose Albert Pujols. You dont have to be a sports analyst to figure that on out.
Holliday
2 Friday, 08 January 2010 19:45
Scott
How do you know who was in on Holliday or what they were bidding?

The Cardinals said they decided to meet Holliday's demands because they ultimately thought he was worth it. But they were concerned not of being outbid on a longterm deal. They were worried that agent Scott Boras would decide to solicit a one-year contract and take Holliday back on the open market next season.

That was a risk the Cardinals didn't want to take and they got their man for a price they can live with.
RE: Cardinals dod not in anyway overpay for Holliday
3 Friday, 08 January 2010 20:15
Daniel
We don't know for sure if he'll be worth the money, but I'm guessing he will be. But this is an example of simple economics: If the demand isn't that high, the value drops. No one wanted Holliday for that much money. Why not offer less and save yourself some cash and have more payroll flexibility? This is how the Cardinals overpaid him. He's a commodity, and you're supposed to buy commodities as cheaply as possible.

As for making future moves, the St. Louis Post-Dispatch had a good article saying the Cardinals have about $7.5 million for four positions, one of which is a starting pitcher. That's definitely not much payroll flexibility.

The Cardinals definitely don't want to lose Pujols, but you have to admit: It's a possibility. It's going to be difficult to keep Holliday, Pujols, Wainwright and Carpenter locked up beyond 2011. You could say Carpenter is the first to go, but you've got to replace him somehow.
RE: Holliday
4 Friday, 08 January 2010 20:23
Daniel
The Yankees and Giants came out and said they were not in the bidding for Holliday. It was reported the Sawx offered the money they eventually gave to Lackey to Holliday and once Holliday rejected it, they gave it to Holliday. It's also been reported the Orioles bowed out after their initial bid of $70 or so million was rejected. As for the other clubs, I just looked at their financial situation and figured they wouldn't be able to pay for Holliday. As Johnny said, it was likely that Holliday was going back to the Cardinals.

I could understand Boras' desire to get his guy back on the market next year and use that as leverage, but the free agent market is going to be stacked next season: Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, Lance Berkman (potentially), Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, Javy Vazquez, Brandon Webb, among others. Where are you going to get your money should the economy continue like this?
Agreed
5 Friday, 08 January 2010 22:44
Jenny
Frankly, I'm not sure the Cardinals didn't overpay for Holliday - period. But even if he's worth it (again, I don't think so - those career numbers are highly inflated by both Coors & the prototypical contract year performance) why, why, why would they give him such a large contract? My guess is to appease the fans when Pujols is long gone - trust me, he will be. What an affront to Pujols that Matt Holliday makes more money than him.
Holliday
6 Friday, 08 January 2010 23:15
Bill
Jenny, I disagree. I think signing Holliday was the next step in courting Pujols. Pujols wanted protection in the lineup. He put pressure on the front office by saying he wouldn't negotiate an extension until he saw the direction of the club. In other words, get a big bopper in the cleanup spot for me.
Pujols will get his money from the Cardinals -- they would be idiotic not to keep him forever. The question is, can they field a competitive team while spending so much on two players?
Holliday II
7 Friday, 08 January 2010 23:20
Bill
Daniel, a few notes.

1. I'm not sure it's fair to say the Cardinals didn't need to worry about the Angels because they were more likely to go after Lackey or Vazquez. They had already lost out on both and had plenty of time to jump back in. I'm sure Boras would have loved to bring the Angels in on this, if Moreno would kiss and make up with him.
2. What's with the phrase "perhaps perfectly reminiscent of Manny Ramirez?" If you need to couch the example with "perhaps" then it's probably not a "perfect" analogy. Just sayin.
Amen!!!
8 Saturday, 09 January 2010 10:33
Ray-man
Johnny you nailed it. Almost word for word!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
Jenny
9 Saturday, 09 January 2010 10:37
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Jenny do you noy know the structure of the contract, this is to solidify pujols stays.
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The Yankees and Giants came out and said they were not in the bidding for Holliday. It was reported the Sawx offered the money they eventually gave to Lackey to Holliday and once Holliday rejected it, they gave it to Holliday. It's also been reported the Orioles bowed out after their initial bid of $70 or so million was rejected. As for the other clubs, I just looked at their financial situation and figured they wouldn't be able to pay for Holliday. As Johnny said, it was likely that Holliday was going back to the Cardinals. sa
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Frankly, I'm not sure the Cardinals didn't overpay for Holliday - period. But even if he's worth it (again, I don't think so - those career numbers are highly inflated by both Coors & the prototypical contract year performance) why, why, why would they give him such a large contract? My guess is to appease the fans when Pujols is long gone - trust me, he will be. What an affront to Pujols that Matt Holliday makes more money than him.
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We don't know for sure if he'll be worth the money, but I'm guessing he will be. But this is an example of simple economics: If the demand isn't that high, the value drops. No one wanted Holliday for that much money. Why not offer less and save yourself some cash and have more payroll flexibility? This is how the Cardinals overpaid him. He's a commodity, and you're supposed to buy commodities as cheaply as possible.
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I could understand Boras' desire to get his guy back on the market next year and use that as leverage, but the free agent market is going to be stacked next season: Victor Martinez, Joe Mauer, Lance Berkman (potentially), Carl Crawford, Adam Dunn, Josh Beckett, Cliff Lee, Javy Vazquez, Brandon Webb, among others. Where are you going to get your money should the economy continue like this?
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