How
much has Pacific Bell/ SBC Park affected Bonds?
And how many HR's would he hit if he played in a
neutral park
by Joseph Kirshenbaum
May 10, 2004
What Barry Bonds has done over the past few seasons
is phenomenal. Some people say that he has benefited from Pac Bell/SBC,
but others say he would be even better. Which one is it? Read below
and find out.
It is well documented that Pacific Bell/SBC (whatever
everyone is calling it these days) is one of the toughest parks
for hitters in baseball. Sure, Bonds makes it looks like a hitter’s
paradise, but when you look at the numbers it’s just not true.
Some people merely look at the player’s road
stats and just average that out to a full season. But that doesn’t
work much because there are too many intangibles (i.e. some players
perform better with fan support, some have gone into their big slumps
or their streaks during a home stand or a long road trip)
All you have to do is look at these numbers. From 2000-2003:
The Giants hit 361 homers at home (104 by Bonds)
The Giants hit 478 homers on the road (109 by Bonds)
Giants pitchers gave up 213 homers at home
Giants pitchers gave up 335 homers on the road.
So during those four years, there have been 574
homers in 324 games at Pac Bell Park and 813 in 323 games where
the Giants played on the road. That averages out to 2.157 homers/
game in road games and 1.771 homers/ game in home games, which is
.746 more homers a game.
So here’s what it means: in those four years,
Bonds hit 213 of the 1387 home runs, which is 15.3 percent. If you
put that into the 240 more homers that would have been hit if the
Giants played in a neutral park (the 239 plus the extra one in the
game that got canceled at Shea due to the blackout), that's 37 more
home runs (or 9.25 a season).
So if Bonds played in a neutral park over the last
few seasons, he would have come into the season with approximately
695 homers instead of 658. Instead of chasing Mays at the beginning
of the season, he’d be chasing Ruth. And if he catches Aaron
it will be at least a season later than he would in a neutral park.
Now to go on to a scary thought, how many home runs would he hit
if he played in Coors field? Read below and find out.
Since 2000:
The Giants hit 72 homers at Coors Field
The Giants hit 31 homers at Pac Bell Park against the Rockies
The Rockies hit 45 homers at Coors Field against the Giants
The Rockies hit 13 homers at Pac Bell Park
The two teams played each other the same amount
of games (35) at each park. When the Giants and Rockies played each
other, there have been 117 homers at Coors Field and only 44 at
Pac Bell Park, which amounts to a 165.9 % increase. So, if the number
of home runs at SBC Park increased over the last four seasons by
165.9%, that would increase the number home runs to 952, that’s
378 more home runs hit in games where the Giants were the home team.
And if Bonds were to hit 15.3% of those home runs, that would be
58 more home runs entering the season, which would mean he would
already be 2 ahead of Ruth and would probably be passing Aaron by
the end of this season.
The scariest question of all is how many homers
would Bonds have hit in 2001, when he broke Mark McGwire's single
season record? How many would he have hit each year if he played
in Coors or a neutral park? Over the last four years, he hit 49
(23%), 73 (34%), 46 (22%), and 45 (21%) homers. All I have to do
is put those percentages into the total increases for a neutral
park and Coors Field. So here's how it would look:
Year |
HR's |
% total HR's over the last 4 yrs |
Neutral park increase |
Neutral park total |
Coors Field Increase |
Coors Field Total |
2000 |
49 |
23% |
9 |
58 |
13 |
62 |
2001 |
73 |
34% |
13 |
86 |
20 |
93 |
2002 |
46 |
22% |
8 |
54 |
13 |
59 |
2003 |
45 |
21% |
8 |
53 |
12 |
57 |
WOW!
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