The recent reports about Barry Bonds have everyone in a tizzy, but it’s interesting that they actually crystallize his career in the minds of some statisticians. The problem with steroids has been that no one could predict what their effects were on statistics. We know that Barry couldn’t have hit 73 home runs in 2001, but how many of home runs would he have hit naturally? Also, what about his other numbers that have also been astronomical?
Before these facts came out, Barry was in the same category as Rafael Palmeiro, Mark McGwire, and Sammy Sosa. Unlike Palmeiro, Barry had never tested positive for steroids, so he was in that uncomfortable gray area with the other two. We “know” they are guilty, but we have the uncomfortable feeling knowing that people are innocent until proven guilty. The whole generation is under suspicion and as soon as someone comes into camp bigger than before or when they hit twice as many home runs as they have before they are under more suspicion.
The questions never end. Are they in fact on steroids? If they are then when did they start using steroids? How many other players in this era are using steroids? These are questions that must be answered before we can begin to sift through the numbers and provide any kind of adjustment. The facts on Barry are now clear. Yes, he was on steroids. He started using them after the 1998 season when Mark McGwire and Sammy Sosa dominated the headlines.
You can attach any kind of feeling you want to about Barry’s motives, but when you consider only his statistics it begins to close the chapter. The ethical and moral issues will be debated and the question of what to do with the records is still out there, but Barry’s assault on the record was already suspicious given his age and spike in production. Now, we know we have to view his numbers differently. Yet, the question of the Hall of Fame and what to do about it is clearer than it ever was.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | Hits | HR | R | RBI | RC | SB | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1986-1998 | .290 | .411 | .556 | 1917 | 411 | 1364 | 1216 | 1627 | 445 |
When we look at his numbers through 1998 we see that he ranked 11th among outfielders in home runs, 16th in on base percentage, 39th in RBIs, 38th in runs scored, and 26th in runs created. So, even if you strike every record from the book following 1998, he still has the numbers necessary for enshrinement. He won three of his MVPs before he started using steroids, so there can be no statistical argument for keeping him out.
However, there is no denying what effect his usage of steroids has had on his play. Barry was well on his way to becoming a top five left fielder of all-time when you consider his solid defense, great numbers at the plate, and speed on the base-paths. If he had never been found out he would have eclipsed Ted Williams as the greatest left fielder of all-time. All of you are aware of the numbers, but looking at the totality of it all really brings it all home. Those numbers have to be stricken in our minds when we consider his place in history, but we have to assume he would have done something.
| AVG | OBP | SLG | Hits | HR | R | RBI | RC | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1999-2005 | .328 | .515 | .756 | 825 | 297 | 714 | 637 | 1058 |
In light of the evidence, these numbers are a joke. Of course, we should have known that someone in his mid-thirties wouldn’t average nearly 43 home runs a season in seasons where he averaged only 119 games. However, we shouldn’t assume he would have done nothing. So how can we give him some credit without including these numbers?
When he released his landmark book Whatever happened to the Hall of Fame? Bill James included many ratings techniques. Similarity scores were one of those techniques. Baseball-reference.com has taken up the mantle and included these with every player. The concept is very simple. James took every offensive statistic and matched it up to other hitters in history. The closer to 1000 a player was the more similar they were. Baseball reference included similarity scores by career and age. So, what I did was look at Barry’s similarity scores at age 33 when he started using steroids. Five of the players were still active and Albert Belle stopped playing at 33, so I went with the other four retired players. I think all of us would agree that Frank Robinson, Duke Snider, Willie Mays, and Mikey Mantle are all great players that we could compare to Bonds.
Since their numbers are slightly different I can’t assume Barry’s numbers will follow their numbers exactly, but I can look at what happened to them before and after they turned 33. Presumably, we could predict that Barry’s numbers would be affected in the same proportion as their numbers. So, what I will do is show their before and after numbers (as a group) and create a multiplier for Barry.
| Hits | HR | Runs | RBI | RC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Before | 8477 | 1744 | 5460 | 5196 | 6415 |
| After | 2766 | 557 | 1681 | 1654 | 1566 |
| Multiplier | 0.33 | 0.32 | 0.31 | 0.32 | 0.24 |
I’m not advocating that we change the record book to reflect the changes in numbers you are about to see. After all, with changes in modern medicine and legal training methods, Barry could have easily surpassed what these projections will show. Unfortunately, he didn’t give us the opportunity to see what he really would have done. We can use the following numbers to come up with a better answer of where to put him in history.
| Hits | HR | Runs | RBI | RC | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1986-98 | 1917 | 411 | 1364 | 1216 | 1627 |
| 1999-05 | 634 | 132 | 433 | 389 | 390 |
| Total | 2551 | 543 | 1797 | 1605 | 2017 |
I think these numbers are pretty realistic. They look like the kind of numbers an aging player would have added over five or six additional seasons. All aging players struggle some with their durability and these numbers reflect that. They also put Barry in a rarified area in history without the benefit of steroids. Here is how he would be affected in the all-time ranking rankings of outfielders in these key statistics.
| Current | Adjusted | |
|---|---|---|
| Hits | 19 | 29 |
| HR | 3 | 5 |
| Runs | 4 | 8 | RBI | 5 | 9 |
| RC | 3 | 9 |
The sad thing about Barry is that he likely would have been one of the top ten outfielders of all time and easily one of the top three or four left fielders in history without the steroids. History will tell the tale on Barry, but we can imagine that it will be a lot harsher than what I’ve laid out. The question of whether he belongs in the Hall of Fame rests purely on ethical and moral bounds. His numbers put him there either way. It seems that while Hank Aaron, Willie Mays, and Babe Ruth could be soiled in the record books we know the real truth.
Scott Barzilla is the author of “Checks and Imbalances,” “The State of Baseball Management,” and is looking forward to his release of “On the Outside Looking” at the end of 2006.
