![[Twins logo]](cubs.gif)
Regular Season Record: 79-83
Fourth in the NL Central – 21 games back
Home Park: Wrigley Field
New Faces:
Clint Brannon (RP) – Traded from Rangers
Scott Eyre (RP) – Signed as free agent
Marquis Grissom (OF) – Signed as free agent
Bob Howry (RP) – Signed as free agent
Jacque Jones (RF) – Signed as free agent
John Mabry (Util) – Signed as free agent
Wade Miller (SP) – Signed as free agent
Angel Pagan (OF) – Contract purchased from Mets
Carlos Perez (RP) – Traded from Baltimore
Juan Pierre (CF) – Traded from Florida
Michael Restovich (RF) – Signed as free agent
Jason Simontacchi (SP) – Signed minor league deal
Nate Spears (IF) – Traded from Baltimore
Looking for Greener Pastures Elsewhere:
Jeromy Burnitz (RF) – Free Agency
Nomar Garciaparra (SS) – Free Agency
Jody Gerut (OF) – Free Agency
Ben Grieve (IF) – Free Agency
Matt Lawton (OF) – Free Agency
Sergio Mitre (SP) – Traded to Florida
Ricky Nolasco (RP) – Traded to Florida
Corey Patterson (CF) – Traded to Baltimore
Renyel Pinto (SP) – Traded to Florida
The Skinny: Only two short offseasons ago, the Cubs were on the heels of the Bartman collapse but things were looking good in the Windy City. They had added Hall of Famer Greg Maddux and up-and-comer Derrek Lee, turning one of their biggest weaknesses (infield defense) into one of their strengths. However, only two seasons removed from great expectations, the Cubs now find themselves nursing the wounds of a fourth place finish in the division, and nursing a number of health concerns as well. Breakout 3B Aramis Ramirez was shut down at the end of last season, aces Mark Prior and Kerry Wood missed significant time, Maddux is 40 and even Lee was shut down in the World Baseball Classic due to minor injury. Understanding that injuries are a part of the game and happen to every team, the Cubs seem more decimated than any team each season. The trend continues, as Wood and Prior aren’t going to be ready to start the season, and each has a greater question mark than just an annoying, nagging problem. As to not devote the entire skinny to injuries, the Cubs still do have some potency in their lineup, with corner infielders Ramirez and Lee both coming off career, All-Star years. With the injuries to the rotation, Ramirez and Lee will be the focal points of the North Siders this season, and will need to carry the load. The bullpen has improved with the acquisitions of Bobby Howry and lefty Scott Eyre – each are also coming off career seasons as they make their way to Wrigley. Starter-turned-closer Ryan Dempster was nothing short of spectacular after being thrown into the role after the departures of LaTroy Hawkins and Joe Borowski. The acquisition of Juan Pierre finally gives Chicago a credible leadoff man, something they’ve not had in years, and coupled with Lee, Ramirez and a solid bullpen, the Cubs are still a factor in the NL Central.
Strengths: In any other year, this section of a preview would be completely dominated by rotation talk. Three absolute stud flamethrowers in Prior, Wood and Carlos Zambrano, followed by the wily Maddux and relative newcomer Jerome Williams – that is the look of a dominant rotation. Unfortunately for Cub fans, the rotation will probably open with Zambrano, Maddux, Williams, Glendon Rusch and a rookie (either John Koronka or Angel Guzman). If the Cubs can tread water until getting some relief with the return of Wood and Prior, their rotation will again be in good shape, and be their greatest strength. Pitching is still second on their strength depth chart – finally, the Cubs appear to have a major league bullpen. Howry has had experience closing in the past, and could be a valuable insurance policy to Dempster (who has less than a year on his closing resume). Howry put up impressive numbers in 2005 with a 2.47 ERA and a 0.89 WHIP. Equally impressive, Eyre is the lefty specialist they thought they were getting with Mike Remlinger. Eyre put up a 2.63 ERA and 1.08 WHIP and is notoriously tough on lefties. The Cubs will have the opportunity to mix and match some power arms throughout the season, and should pitch with the best of them. The lineup is somewhat of a strength, predicated on the health of Lee and Ramirez, who will now be following the havoc-wreaking Pierre in the lineup. The rest of the lineup is a collection of so-so’s like Todd Walker, Jacque Jones and Michael Barrett, so their Big Three offensive weapons will need to duplicate past success to keep the Cubs in the hunt long enough to have a chance with Wood and Prior. But can D-Lee carry them on his back again? That remains to be seen.
Weaknesses: Health, as usual. It’s a shame that Cub fans have to hang the proverbial hat of success on Wood and Prior, but that’s just the way it is. Without Wood and Prior having healthy, consistent and even dominant seasons, it’s hard to imagine the Cubs climbing three spots in the standings to make a run at the postseason. Shortstop Ronny Cedeno is unproven, and the Cubs are likely to hand the LF job over to Matt Murton, another “potential” player that is yet unproven. We’ve seen this from the Cubs before, whether it’s Bobby Hill, Corey Patterson or Hee Seop Choi – the organization can develop young arms but, for whatever reason, they haven’t had a homegrown position player make a big splash in a decade. Replacing Nomar Garciaparra, Jeromy Burnitz and Patterson with Cedeno, Jones and Pierre is a relative wash, and once again the Cubs Achilles heel could be depth in position players, and of course, health in the rotation. Lee was amazing in 2005 (.335/.418/.662/46/107), but his season was so far off course from his seasonal averages that it’s much to ask of him to duplicate that amazing year.
Potential Lineup:
Juan Pierre – CF
Todd Walker – 2B
Derrek Lee – 1B
Aramis Ramirez – 3B
Jacque Jones – RF
Michael Barrett – C
Matt Murton – LF
Ronny Cedeno – SS
Keys to Success: It seems redundant to say that the Cubs need to stay healthy, but that is the absolute bottom line. If Wood and Prior can’t turn in a season between them, the Cubs are probably doomed to another fourth place finish with the emergence of the Brewers as contenders, not to mention the Cardinals and Astros have been dominant forces in the division for years. It’s hard to figure that Lee will improve on his 2005 campaign, but he’ll almost need to in order to keep his club in the hunt. Ramirez needs to prove that he’s right again after being shut down, and this could be the final curtain call for Maddux. There are too many health concerns to go around. Obviously, Zambrano is a horse in that rotation, and if Wood and Prior don’t make major strides, it will have to be Zambrano, Lee and the youngsters picking up the slack and posting career years.
Prediction: The Cubs don’t have enough firepower in the lineup to afford a single injury. Their rotation is already hurt. Is the improved bullpen going to be a moot point if the Cubs can’t establish and maintain leads? As I mentioned, the top three finishers in the division have not regressed to the point that the Cubs can make a serious run without all their money players in the fold. And as of now, their money players have health concerns looming over the club like the thunderclouds rolling in from Lake Michigan. Unless Lee and Ramirez have career years or Prior and Wood can both get five months out of their arms, the Cubs look like they will battle the Brewers for third place in the NL Central.
