Fantasy Take: The Houston Astros

Fantasy Take: The Houston Astros 2006

After winning the National League championship last year the Astros have has to make some tough financial decisions. It should be interesting to see if they can show the same kind of pluck and opportunistic baseball that they played in 2005.

The Top Tier

Roy Oswalt (SP) - Oswalt is an ace in the true sense of the word and he is coming off two consecutive 20 win seasons. Last season his strikeout totals fell to below 200 (184) while his inning totals were the highest in his career. That could be a slight concern but his 2.94 ERA and 1.20 WHIP were very encouraging signs. He’ll be 28 years old coming into this season and he still has plenty of upside.

Brad Lidge (CL) - Lidge was one of the most dominating closers in the game last year - at least up until the World Series began. At that point he more or less disintegrated and became perhaps the most hittable pitcher in baseball. He has had a lot of time to think about that over the off-season and his ability to rebound will be a measure of his mental toughness. The question will be whether he’s going to be his dependable self or if he’s going to be an early round bust. It might be best to let someone else take the risk.

Morgan Ensberg (3B) - Ensberg had a terrific season in 2005 and emerged as the best hitter on the Astros’ team (.283-36-101). He might well be an elite third baseman and he certainly rivals Scott Rolen and David Wright as far as potential for production goes. That makes him a top NL choice but the question still remains as to what happened to him in 2004 when he managed just an anemic .275-10-66?


The Second Tier

Andy Pettitte (SP) - The 33 year old Pettitte returned from an elbow injury to pitch well in 2005 (17 wins, 2.39, 171 Ks, 1.03 WHIP). If he can stay healthy then he is in line for another solid season. The downside is that since the Astros let Roger Clemens walk away Pettitte will be without his good friend and will have to face a lot more of the media scrutiny.

Preston Wilson (OF) - Preston Wilson didn’t have a bad 2005 campaign (.260-25-90 with six steals) in a season split between Colorado and Washington. The move back to a great hitters’ park should offer him a chance to at least match those power numbers while playing for a wild card contender should help his RBI totals as well. The downside for Preston is bad knees and the fact that he’s on the wrong side of thirty - but that doesn’t seem to matter as much these days as it did years ago.

Lance Berkman (1B/OF) - Considering that Berkman missed 30 games last year his numbers (.293-24-82) have to be considered outstanding. What’s really encouraging is that his power numbers steadily increased as the season progressed. That bodes well for his season in 2006.

Craig Biggio (2B) - The signing of Preston Wilson to patrol centerfield means that Biggio once again becomes a true second baseman. That’s not by any means a bad thing for fantasy owners when you consider that he went .264-26-69 with 11 steals and 94 runs scored last year. Those numbers have to be considered awesome when you consider that he was 38 years old last season. This season he’s 39 and decline is inevitable, but even if he goes .260-15-60 those would still be great numbers for a second baseman.


The Third Tier

Jason Lane (OF) - It’s hard not to like what Jason Lane did in his first full season in the outfield. While his average was lower than expected (.267) his power numbers (26 home runs) and RBI totals (78) were quite respectable. Those numbers while good are not as good as his minor league numbers suggest that he can be. The question is whether at age 29 he can reach a higher plateau?

Adam Everett (SS) - Everett is perhaps a slightly better than middle of the road fantasy option at the shortstop position. He’s capable of contributing in every category other than average, but with so many shortstops that can produce similar or better numbers he’s likely to be overlooked until late in most drafts. Since the team seems to have a better offense in 2006 he might be able to improve upon last season’s numbers (.248-11-54 with 58 runs and 21 stolen bases).

Dan Wheeler (RP) - Wheeler is the heir apparent to the closer’s gig in the event that Brad Lidge mentally packs it in. He’s not quite as much of a strikeout machine but still manages almost a strikeout per inning. At the worst he’ll get a handful of saves, but he’s a good insurance policy to have.

Question Marks:

Jeff Bagwell (1B) - The Astros have filed an insurance claim on Jeff Bagwell claiming that he’ll be too hurt to play in 2006. That’s a huge red flag that says that even if Bagwell does get to play that the Astros don’t expect much from him. Maybe that means he’s worth a late round gamble, but I suspect he’ll retire before the season starts.

Brad Ausmus (C) - Defense and how well you can call a game tend not to mean a lot in fantasy baseball and for most of his career Ausmus has been a marginal fantasy baseball player. That hasn’t changed despite his postseason performance last year. He’s an adequate secondary or tertiary option at catcher, but someone will likely overpay.

Willy Taveras (OF) - The speedster really doesn’t have much pop and wasn’t great in the World Series, but he was very productive last season with a .291 average and 34 stolen bases, which was good enough for a second place in the rookie of the year balloting. However the Astros needed to boost offense this off-season and they found the big bat of Preston Wilson to their liking. What that means for Taveras is unclear - Wilson is by trade a centerfielder as is Taveras, which either means that one of them is going to be moved to another outfield slot or that Taveras just became a fourth outfielder. Watch him in the spring to see where he ends up.