Fantasy Take: The Toronto Blue Jays 2006

Few teams have made the kind of improvements that the Jays have over the off-season.   They upgraded their offence by finding a slugger to fill the void left by last year’s departure of Carlos Delgado, added a number 2 starting pitcher, a premier type closer and made this team into a dark horse contender.   What that means is improved numbers for offensive players and a better overall mark, as well as more predictability for the pitching staff.

The Top Tier:

Roy Halladay (SP):   Halladay is the premier pitcher in the AL East despite the presence of Curt Schilling (Red Sox) and Randy Johnson (Yankees).   Halliday is younger, stronger, and less likely to break down under the strain due to wear and tear.   Halliday however is not without some risk as he returns from a broken leg which was shattered by a line drive last season.   He’s opted out of the World Baseball Classic due to injury so that he might have some additional time to get back into form.   It’s not likely that this injury will screw up his mechanics or slow him down.   It is likely that his injury history and missing the WBC will cause some people to downgrade him in the draft, meaning smart owners might get him a little more cheaply.

B.J. Ryan (CL):  Ryan was absolutely lights out for the Baltimore Orioles.   2005 however was his first season as a full time closer and he doesn’t have much of a track record.   That shouldn’t deter some aggressive bidding on him since he has the goods to be ranked among the elite closers in the game. His peripheral stats show how good (insert stats) he really was.   Don’t let the relative number of saves deceive you as to his quality.

The Second Tier:

Vernon Wells (OF):   Wells really had quite a good year last year  (.269-28-97 with 78 runs scored and 8 steals) but he’s never quite lived up to all of the potential that fantasy fans had hoped he’d develop, especially in terms of speed .  At age 27 he still has time for a breakout year especially since he won’t have to shoulder the full burden of carrying the offense and better hitting around him could lead to a much better season than he had last year.

Troy Glaus (3B/DH):  The Blue Jays aren’t likely to let Glaus spend much time in the field both due to the physical requirements of playing third base, and the fact that he’s really not a very good defensive player.   That should allow Glaus to protect his surgically reconstructed shoulder and concentrate on what he was imported to do – bash home runs (think 35+) and provide the team with some much needed protection in the middle of the lineup.   He definitely is a liability as far as average goes, but if you can take that hit he contributes solidly across the board except perhaps in leagues which penalize you for strikeouts.

A.J. Burnett (SP):  Burnett was brought in to be the number two pitcher on this staff and he’s always shown flashes of brilliance, but never consistency.   That could be a problem as he struggles to evolve into an American league pitcher and needs to contend with better offenses than he’s used to throwing to as well as a designated hitter.    It wouldn’t be a shock to see his ERA balloon to a 4.00 +, but his strikeout totals and his win totals should be solid across the board.

Shea Hillenbrand (1B/3B):  If you compare Shea to the talent available at first base he’s clearly not a player with second tier production.   However drafting him for his third base eligibility makes a lot of sense.  His numbers (.291-18-82 with 90 runs scored and 5 steals) compare favorably above the average third baseman.   He’s likely to see most of the time at third base since he’s a better defensive player than Troy Glaus.

Lyle Overbay (1B):  Overbay isn’t a power hitter at this point in his career but it’s not unreasonable to think that he’ll mash 20 home runs and contribute in every category except for steals (1 SB in ‘05).   That being said Overbay’s power has been growing over the past few years, and his evolution may be far from complete – an increase in power and a fall off in average has been his MO over the past few years.

Bengie Molina (C):  Bengie finally stayed healthy for most of the season last year and had the career year we’d been expecting.   He’s a catcher on the wrong side of 30 but one who’s got the goods to match or surpass last year’s production.   Looking at the team around him, only his health could derail another great year.

The Third Tier:

Russ Adams (SS):  Russ hasn’t done very much at the major league level yet but the Blue Jays think he’s a guy with a lot of upside and some speed.   For that reason, and his ability to take a walk and get on base he’ll get another season in the leadoff spot despite last season’s dismal .256 average.   He’s got a little pop and it’s not out of the question that he’ll develop a lot of those skills this season.

The Question Marks:

Gustavo Chacin (SP):   Chacin managed a 14 win season with a great ERA of 3.72, but the numbers are deceiving.  Chacin walked 70 batters and posted a WHIP of 1.39.  To me that says that he spent an awful lot of time dodging bullets.  If his control improves he’s poised to take a big step forward, but if not he’s unlikely to continue dodging bullets forever and he could be poised for a huge fall.Josh Towers (SP):  Towers has been a .500 pitcher his whole career, relying on guile rather than overpowering stuff to get by as a fourth or fifth starter.   Last season was his career best (13 Wins, 112 K, 3.71 ERA, 1.27 WHIP), and if he can overcome his past history of inconsistency he could be poised to become a very solid pitcher. If not he’s still a pitcher who could rack up some wins in deeper leagues.

Eric Hinske (1B/3B/OF):  With the importation of Troy Glaus, Hinske’s lost his job in the infield and the team will try to convert him to an outfielder.   That means splitting time in a platoon situation with Alexis Rios.  Hinske has more power and will get the opportunity to win the job outright, and he’ll get plenty of pinch hitting chances as well.  For the moment he’s a late round pick barring an injury to one of the other outfielders.

Alexis Rios (OF):  Rios at this point in his career doesn’t have a lot going on to recommend him.  He’s going to platoon with Eric Hinske but even under ideal circumstances is the weakest link fantasy wise on this team.

Frank Catalanotto: (OF):  The “Little Cat” once again looks to slot into the lineup as the number two batter.   His fantasy value as an outfielder isn’t much, but with the trade of second baseman Orlando Hudson the need for a second baseman could lead to him being transferred back into that position.  If that happens his value jumps tremendously as he’ll provide solid second base numbers.  His main competition for that job is going to be Aaron Hill who doesn’t match up as well offensively.

John-Ford Griffin (OF):  The future left fielder for the Blue Jays could play into the fantasy picture as early as this spring, but the Jays probably won’t rush him into the bigs this season.  He’s got across the board potential and the Jays due to payroll constraints won’t want to pay him big league money before they have to, which will probably be next season.  Still expect some late season at bats for Griffin unless the Jays are in a playoff race.

John McDonald (2B):   John’s the only real second baseman the team has, but he’s going to be 32, has limited experience and isn’t worth a fantasy pick in any but the deepest of leagues.  He’s going to be challenged for the second base job by Aaron Hill and maybe Frank Catalanotto.