The
Brewers have finally gotten over the hump to become a .500 team,
and appear to be trending upward. In fact, they’ve become
the sexy sleeper for many of the pundits with good starting pitching
at the top and a solid, balanced lineup. Here are a few key members
of the Brew Crew to keep your eye on as fantasy drafts approach:
Top Tier
Carlos Lee (LF) – Lee has always been a
run producer, no matter which league or lineup spot he plays in.
He’s a debatable top tier fantasy performer because he hasn’t
yet made his big splash. However, each season of his seven-year
career, he’s driven in 80+ runs and his extra base hits
have trended upward for four consecutive years. Driving in 114
last season, Lee could match or better that mark with the emergence
of Rickie Weeks, who is likely to hit directly in front of him.
Lee grounded into only 8 double plays last season and always gives
himself a chance to drive the run home. The question mark to Lee
has become his average and OBP – last season his .265 clip
was far below his career average. Since he’s not a high
strikeout guy, his low average appears to be an anomaly –
look for Lee to be closer to his 2004 line (.305/.366/.522) than
his 2005 line (.265/.324/.487), and pencil him in for 30+ HR and
100+ RBI.
Derrick Turnbow (CL) – I’m a little
reluctant to put Turnbow in the elite class, but you can’t
argue with his 2005 line. The floppy-haired freak was outstanding:
39 saves and a 1.74 ERA is very, very tough to argue against.
Turnbow posted almost a 3/1 K/BB ratio, and 49 hits to 67 innings
is tremendous success as well. The hesitation is, of course, the
rhetorical “will they figure him out” question…but
to be sure, Turnbow can bring it. He can miss your bat and get
the ground ball, and he only yielded 5 HR last season. Was last
year a fluke? Was last year an indication of things to come? Put
it this way: if Turnbow pitches this season like he pitched last
season, you’ll be sorry you left him out of your drafting
plans. And with a fastball like that, even if he’s “figured
out” at some point, he’ll still be able to get away
with mistake pitches when he’s facing hitters with a come-from-behind
mentality. As long as he continues to prove he’s got command,
he has the potential to be a terrific pick.
The Second Tier
Ben Sheets (SP) – Normally Sheets would
belong in the top tier, but he has to prove he can pitch a full
season at his normal level of excellence. Only one season removed
from an amazing 32 BB, 264 K and 2.70 ERA, Sheets missed two months
of the 2005 campaign. Even despite missing 12 starts, sheets still
managed to win 10 games and approach an incredible 6/1 K/BB ratio;
a healthy Sheets is undoubtedly a top tier player. If there’s
a silver lining to his “struggles,” perhaps it may
be that Sheets will be a lower-round sleeper to keep in mind while
you fill offensive spots. His perceived fall from the elite only
adds value and subtracts risk from your pick.
Doug Davis (SP) – If Davis seemingly came
out of nowhere in 2004, then his 2005 season shouldn’t have
been much of a surprise. Davis became one of the biggest reasons
for the franchise turnaround, posting his second consecutive sub-4.00
ERA and striking out 200+ for the first time in his career. A
typical nibbling lefty, his walks are a bit high (93 last season)
although he’s rarely hit hard and often. He won’t
present the upside that Sheets has, but as a staple near the top
of the rotation and backed by an improved club, Davis should have
plenty of wins and strikeouts, an average WHIP in the 1.30 range,
and at 30 he could be entering the prime of his pitching career.
Chris Capuano (SP) – While Capuano doesn’t
quite have the strikeout ability of Sheets and Davis, he enjoyed
a breakout season in 2005. His 18-12 record was phenomenal for
a .500 ballclub, his 3.99 ERA was respectable and his place in
the rotation has been cemented. At only 27, Capuano could be reaching
his prime as well (see: Davis). Although I wouldn’t expect
the win total to be there again, expect Capuano to improve in
the ERA, K and WHIP categories. Unfortunately for Capuano, he
yields a hefty amount of long balls (31 last season), and depending
on the size of your league you might want to take a wait-and-see
approach on him. Acquiring him in the Richie Sexson trade, the
organization believes he’s going to be an absolute stud
when he puts it all together, and we may have seen the tip of
the iceberg in 2005. However, depending on if Capuano can curtail
the HRs allowed, he could either return to average or establish
himself among the top lefthanders in the game.
Prince Fielder (1B) – Fielder has been
given the job at first base after a much heralded entrance to
big league baseball. The son of former major leaguer Cecil Fielder,
Prince has much of the same power, although some project him to
be an elite power hitter in the game. In AAA last season, Fielder
was a dominant force, crushing 28 bombs in only 103 games after
consecutive 20+ HR seasons in the A and AA ranks. While his major
league resume is short, he managed a .458 SLG in his first cup
of coffee, and should only improved with increased exposure and
at bats. After hitting 3 HR last spring and being bumped up to
AAA, Fielder has two more HR this spring in his first 19 at bats.
Like most power hitters, he will strike out more than you’d
like, but the potential for unbelievable power is enough to make
him a second tier player, even without the resume.
Brady Clark (CF) – Although Clark is not
the prototypical leadoff hitter – he’s not a huge
stolen base threat – he has proved himself as a very valuable
commodity in the Brewers’ lineup. He topped the .300 mark
last year, and found some gap power in Miller Park, hitting for
extra bases 45 times. His OBP has been solid the last two seasons
(.385 and .372 respectively) and Clark is poised to score a ton
of runs with Weeks, Lee, Geoff Jenkins, Corey Koskie and Fielder
behind him. Expect a solid average and OBP, lots of runs, very
few strikeouts and perhaps a spike in extra base hits in his second
season as the full-time centerfielder.
Geoff Jenkins (RF) – Part of Jenkins value
lies in a fairly weak crop of right fielders. Jenkins has always
been a guy who’s racked up the K’s, and his power
no longer justifies it. Although, if you are in need of HR and
RBI, he’s still a serviceable pick, especially after finding
his form down the stretch in 2005. Jenkins upped his average to
.292 and set a career best mark with a .375 OBP. However, his
HR dropped to 25 and he only drove in 86 runs – far from
ideal when we’re talking about cleanup hitters. With added
protection (Fielder, Koskie) and another sparkplug at the top
(Weeks), the 31-year old Jenkins could have another solid year
like his 2003 campaign (.296/.375/.538, 28 HR, 95 RBI). Unfortunately,
Jenkins will probably also give your team 130 strikeouts and 0
stolen bases.
The Third Tier
Corey Koskie (3B) – It’s unclear
exactly which Koskie the Brewers are getting. In the past, Koskie
has been a durable bat able to knock 25 HR and drive in 100 runs.
After an injury plagued season and some struggles at the plate,
Koskie looks for a fresh start. With Fielder behind him in the
lineup, Koskie could have the opportunity for more power once
again, although his max potential is probably the 25 figure. His
average has taken a dive in recent years even while he’s
maintained respectable OBP and SLG percentages. At third base,
it’s probably not wise to look at Koskie unless you’re
desperate, but if the Brewers get on a roll, Koskie might be one
of the reasons. Definitely a wait-and-see.
Question Marks
J.J Hardy (SS) – Like I mentioned in the
preview, Hardy is a slick fielder and is also a well-liked player.
However, he hasn’t proved that he has any fantasy value
yet. The fact that he walked 44 times and struck out only 48 times
is very encouraging – Hardy wasn’t completely overmatched
his rookie season. Like Clark, Hardy has shown some gap power
and at least the ability to hit the longball. Hardy is a player
to follow, but not for the 2006 draft. Perhaps in 2007, after
two full years in the big leagues, we’ll have a better handle
on the type of player he can be.
Damian Miller (C) – Miller is the sort of veteran you love having on your team, that’s for sure. He’s calm, cool, and collected. He handles the young pitching staff in an encouraging, paternal way. However, like most catchers, his bat leaves much to be desired. There aren’t many catchers who mash – this might be Miller’s most redeeming quality. At 36, nobody expects Miller to improve, although he has been remarkably consistent. He’s struck between 9-13 HR each of the last seven seasons, and will typically drive in a pedestrian 45 runs. Maybe an injury to a catcher midseason might warrant a look, otherwise be advised to stay away.
Tomo Ohka (SP) – Ohka is actually not a bad sleeper, if we’re talking about the last round of the draft. He’s posted a 3.95 ERA over 144 major league starts and maintained a 2/1 K/BB ratio during his six full seasons. He doesn’t walk many, but the end result is often plenty more hits than innings. A 1.35-1.40 WHIP is to be expected, and if the Brewers get 10 wins out of him, they should feel blessed. Even though he’s only 30, it’s hard to imagine him breaking out any time soon.
Dave
Bush (SP) – Bush and Ohka should be paired up for
the bottom two spots in the Milwaukee rotation. Bush had a serviceable
year as a starter for the Blue Jays last season and is still young.
75 K to 29 walks was encouraging; 20 HR allowed in 136 innings
was not. Bush lives on the inner half of the plate – when
he’s right he’s knocking guys down and tying them
in knots. However, when he gets too much of the plate, away it
goes. This is not atypical of sophomore struggles, and Bush managed
to put in a nice season despite winning only 5 of his 24 starts.
Another wait-and-see.
