While the Cardinals may not have made cannonball
splashes through free agency, they’ve added some depth to
their roster. While depth doesn’t often translate into fantasy
baseball, the Cardinals still have some top-notch players to take
a look at, including the reigning National League MVP and Cy Young
winners.
Top Tier
Albert Pujols (1B) – You won’t find much
debate from anyone if you were to take Pujols with the first overall
pick. Nobody has started a career quite like Phat Albert has;
not the Yankee Clipper, not the Mick, not the Splendid Splinter.
Taking individual season-worsts from his career line, the worst
to expect from Pujols is .314/34/117 (compare with season-bests
at .359/46/130). His walks have increased each season, he’s
a lock for a high BA, OBP, SLG and a lock for 40+ HR and 100+
RBI. He doesn’t miss games, and he’s the unusual slugger
who walks drastically more than he strikes out. Perhaps the scariest
mark of consistency are his AB totals, year to year: 590, 590,
591, 592, 591. Expect Pujols to be gone by the third pick, especially
now that he’s added the stolen base (16 last season) to
his repertoire.
Chris Carpenter (SP) – Carpenter surprised
everyone but his teammates and management with his unexpected
run at the NL Cy Young award. At 21-5, Carpenter’s record
was astounding. However, 40 more IP than hits allowed and his
51 walks to 213 strikeouts were perhaps even more impressive.
In two seasons in St. Louis, Carpenter has found himself, going
36-10 with an ERA just above 3. With the depth in the St. Louis
rotation, Carpenter was almost exclusively on an “every
fifth game” schedule, compared with most aces who are on
an “every fifth day” schedule. Assuming this strategy
(aimed at keeping him healthy for the stretch run) continues,
it’s not out of the question that Carpenter could post a
similar line in 2006, although it would be quite difficult to
top his Cy Young performance.
The Second Tier
Scott Rolen (3B) – Rolen was faced with a tough,
critical decision toward the end of 2005: Make the sacrifice to
have season-ending surgery in order to be ready for Spring Training
’06, or try to fight his way through the playoff push with
a bum shoulder. In hindsight, the Cardinals probably could have
used Rolen down the stretch, but Rolen is completely healthy now
in March, and will be quite the sleeper. Only a season removed
from an MVP-caliber year (where he posted a .314/34/124 line),
Rolen will be placed back into the heart of the Cardinals lineup
along with Pujols and Jim Edmonds. The average and RBI should
be there when it’s all said and done, but what remains to
be seen is how long it will take Rolen to get back into the groove
and hit major league pitching at a consistent level. If Rolen
again returns to his cleanup spot at some point, expect a ton
of RBI chances because of the opposition’s reluctance to
let Pujols beat them.
Jim Edmonds (CF) – Although only a year
removed from a monster season, Edmonds had a relatively disappointing
season in 2005, driving in only 89 runs on the strength of 29
HR, and seeing his average dip down to .263. Rolen’s injury
(along with injuries to Reggie Sanders and Larry Walker) hurt
Edmonds – he was moved to the second spot in the lineup
where he sacrificed the big flies and became too selective. With
Rolen back in the fold and some capable #2 candidates in camp,
expect Edmonds to return to shuffle between the cleanup and #5
spots in the order, where he flourished in 2004 (.301/42/111).
Among Centerfielders offensively, Edmonds may not stack up with
Andruw Jones, but he’s a mid-draft pick with great potential
to exceed expectations – the lowest expectations pundits
have had for him since 2000.
Jason Isringhausen (RP) – Isringhausen enjoyed
a second-consecutive healthy season for his hometown Cardinals.
“Izzy” saved 39 ballgames in 2005, and expect him
to be close to that total again, with the Cardinals looking to
be in good shape to beat up on the have-nots of the NL Central.
Keeping in mind that the Redbirds will combine to play the Pirates
and Reds 36 times, the save totals will be there. One particular
note on Isringhausen was his new approach – abandoning his
usual two-pitch attack (4-seam fastball, knuckle-curve) and adding
a cut fastball. Although this approach initiated a slight decline
in strikeouts, Izzy posted a terrific career-best 2.14 ERA and
in the new, more spacious version of Busch Stadium, 40 saves and
a mid-2s ERA is not out of the question.
Mark Mulder (SP) – Mulder’s decline
in Oakland during the 2004 season was concerning. He had started
the All-Star Game for the AL, and was on pace for a career year
before falling apart in the second half. Mulder put the injury
whispers to rest in his first season in St. Louis, posting a 16-8
record along with a 3.64 ERA. Like Isringhausen, Mulder’s
strikeouts declined, only in this case as a result of pitching
coach Dave Duncan’s request to pound sinkers down and in,
almost exclusively. Mulder was among the very best in groundball-flyball
ratio and double plays induced, something that served him well
to get out of jams. Even though Mulder was hit more often, he
wasn’t hit quite as hard, tossing 6 less longballs than
in ’04 with Oakland. Still, Mulder isn’t the flamethrower
that will get you 200 strikeouts; his value should be in winning
games for a solid team and posting a respectable ERA. Expect 16+
wins with a mid-3s ERA once again.
Juan Encarnacion (RF) – Encarnacion is a bubble
second tier player. Although he raised his average to .287 in
his final season in Miami, the power numbers just aren’t
there. Hitting 16 HR in each of the last 2 years in a corner outfield
spot isn’t the most desirable total, however Encarnacion
has proved that he can drive in runs from the #6 spot, and hitting
behind Pujols, Edmonds and Rolen, he should see a spike in RBI
chances and could greatly benefit from following a high-OBP trio.
A lot might depend on where Edmonds hits – if Edmonds hits
fifth, being the lone lefty with pop in the middle of the lineup,
Encarnacion may see Edmonds being intentionally walked by righthanders
quite a bit. Leaving a spacious football stadium in Miami may
help his power numbers (as it has for Derrek Lee, Kevin Millar,
Cliff Floyd and Preston Wilson in the past), and being grouped
with Pujols during hitting drills in camp – and now with
Pujols and the Dominicans in the WBC – may help him rekindle
his gap power to right-centerfield.
The Third Tier
Jason Marquis (SP) – Which Marquis are
the Cardinals going to get? In 2004, his first full season as
a starter, he posted a 15-7 line with a 3.71 ERA and a 2-1 K/BB
ratio. It’s unclear whether or not he’ll be able to
bounce back from his 2005 regression (13-14, 4.13 ERA). It’s
hard to imagine a #4 pitcher having a below .500 record on a team
that wins 100 ballgames, but Marquis managed to pull it off. Adjusting
to Duncan’s fastball-away and sinker-inside style caused
Marquis to take a step back. At 27, Marquis should be close to
entering his prime, and still features a 94 mph fastball, only
matched on the staff by Carpenter. For a guy who hit over .300
and won a Silver Slugger award (including a handful of pinch hitting
and pinch running appearances), it’s hard to imagine a similar
struggle for Marquis in the win column, but as of now he should
be considered a wait-and-see.
Jeff Suppan (SP) – Suppan is exactly the
type of bulldog pitcher you want on your favorite team’s
pitching staff, just probably not exactly the type of pitcher
you want on your fantasy team’s pitching staff. Although
he has won 16 games each of the last two seasons and brought his
ERA down to 3.57, Suppan won’t get you strikeouts or blow
anyone away with a WHIP in the 1.30-1.40 range. If you’re
looking for wins with a late pick, Suppan isn’t a horrible
choice, but like with Marquis, a wait-and-see approach may be
best. Deeper outfield fences may reduce his HRs allowed and lower
his ERA, but not enough to put him in the second tier.
Larry Bigbie (LF) – Bigbie might be closer
to a question mark than a third tier player at this point. However,
it does appear that he’s the odds-on favorite to win the
job in LF, and the #7 spot in the Cardinals order would be a nice
fit. Like with Encarnacion, Bigbie will be trailing a solid group
of hitters and might turn out to be a run producer, but his power
is a question mark, not to mention his career .268 batting mark.
A fresh start in a solid starting lineup may do the trick, but
even at this point Bigbie isn’t a lock to get the lion’s
share of AB in LF, with utility guys So Taguchi and John Rodriguez
nipping at his heels.
Junior Spivey (2B) – It appears that Spivey should
win the 2B job in St. Louis, and be a leading candidate to hit
in front of Pujols. This sort of protection makes Spivey an interesting
choice, optimistically. If the chips fall right, the former All-Star
could find himself feasting on fastballs and forcing opposing
pitchers to get too much of the plate with the dangerous Pujols
on deck. Even after a couple of below-par seasons, Spivey maintains
a career .354 OBP (see: Juan Pierre) and his patience may be enough
to convince Tony LaRussa to bat him second. Scott Spiezio is in
Cardinals camp and hitting well during Spring Training, and anyone
cutting into Spivey’s playing time should make a fantasy
drafter be skeptical with a low-end pick like this.
David Eckstein (SS) – Like Suppan, Eckstein
is the perfect fit for a real life team, but his strengths just
don’t translate well into fantasy land. Eckstein has a knack
for taking pitches, fouling off pitches, leaning into pitches,
being a pest, and making all the routine defensive plays. He never
strikes out and has the ability to hit for a decent average, however
his SB totals have declined and he’s obviously never going
to be a power guy. Still, Eckstein comes off a season where he
had career-best marks in AB, HR, RBI, BB, Avg, OBP, SLG and was
the second-toughest to K, striking out only 44 times in 630 AB.
Once all the premium shortstops are gone, Eckstein is at least
worth a look.
Question Marks
Yadier Molina (C) – Catchers typically
aren’t going to have dominant offensive seasons, and Molina
is no exception. His value is in his arm, where he crushed the
field in MLB in Pickoffs and Caught Stealing % in his first full
season. At the tender age of 23, there is plenty of time for his
bat to come around, just probably not yet. He has the average
catcher’s HR total, RBI and average, and his .358 SLG leaves
much to be desired. Still, Molina is a contact hitter with the
potential to hit .300 one day. For a catcher to strike out only
30 times in 385 AB, one has to believe he’s starting to
get the hang of hitting at the big league level. Even depending
on the size of your league, drafting Molina at this point is questionable.
Braden Looper (RP) – Looper has been a closer the past couple seasons, and for leagues with Holds, he will have some value. He was brought in during the offseason to cushion Isringhausen, and will pitch the 8th inning exclusively. The biggest question mark is Looper’s health: he had minor surgery during the offseason, and may not be called upon in tight situations right away. After a month or two, Looper should be racking up Holds. With LaRussa’s matchup style and the way that lefties crushed Looper last season, he will likely be put in to face righthanders and, in turn, should have a solid season as the primary setup man in the pen. The first series of the year (against Philadelphia) should tell the tale – will LaRussa let Looper face a guy like Bobby Abreu in the 8th or fall back on the mix-and-match and bring in a lefthander? This will be a clear indicator as to how “situational” Looper’s contributions will be.
Anthony Reyes / Sidney Ponson (SP)
– A battle ensues down in Jupiter, FL for the final spot
in the rotation, and both Reyes and Ponson were lit up in their
first appearances. Of course, this is nothing new for pitchers
who are pressing for results to open up camp. The winner of the
#5 spot should be considered at least a third tier player, but
as of right now they must be considered question marks. Either
Reyes or Ponson would be nice free agent pickups once the season
begins and it’s clear who will get the starts. Ponson has
been an ace quality pitcher in the past, but his off-field issues
have forced him to compete for a rotation spot. Reyes is a highly
touted power pitcher, a former rotation-mate of Mark Prior’s
at USC, and considered to have all the potential of a bona fide
strikeout pitcher. The loser of the rotation spot will likely
end up at the back end of the Cardinals bullpen, but thereby lose
almost their entire fantasy value. A definite wait-and-see.
