The Cubs are bunched with talent at the top, and full of question marks in the bottom, but all things equaling out, they have as good a chance as any single team to produce some top tier fantasy baseball talent.
Top Tier
Derrek Lee (1B) – Lee had an unbelievable season that now at least puts him in the same conversation as Albert Pujols, Manny Ramirez, Alex Rodriguez and Vladimir Guerrero, in terms of top offensive draft picks. While it’s unclear whether Lee will have enough around him to duplicate his MVP-caliber 2005 season, what he did at the plate was undeniably solid: Lee hit .335 and won the NL batting title, slammed 46 HR and drove in 107, leading the NL in the triple crown categories for a portion of the season. He’s still a 15-20 SB guy on top of establishing himself as a 30/100 guy as well. Look for Lee to maintain a good average and still have the run-producing potential (with Pierre’s presence at the top of the lineup). While he’s not been Pujols every year, he nearly was last year.
Carlos Zambrano (SP) – Three years ago, if you would have told Cub fans that they would still have Kerry Wood, Mark Prior and would sign Greg Maddux, nobody would have figured Zambrano to be their ace at this point. But Zambrano has been their horse – logging 200+ innings in each of the last three years. Since joining the rotation, Zambrano’s ERA has never been close to 4.00, he’s struck out 200 hitters and he’s proven that Cubs starters can win. It’s hard to believe that he’s still only 24 – this sort of success could start becoming a trend in a hurry. He is slowly pushing his way to the level of guys like Roy Oswalt and John Smoltz.
Mark Prior (SP) – As long as Prior can return to the team and make 25+ starts, he should be considered a top tier player. Ever since his unbelievable 2001 season at USC (15-1, 1.70 ERA), Prior has been considered one with potential for greatness. Unfortunately for the Cubs and for Prior, the health bug has crept into his spring once again. Still a very valuable draft choice, considering the upside. In his first full season in the Chicago rotation, he went 18-6 with a 2.43 ERA and 1.10 WHIP – although this may be his ceiling, a healthy Prior is not far from these figures. The wins might not be there for Prior this season, but the rest of the stats should fall in line with his career marks.
The Second Tier
Aramis Ramirez (3B) – As long as Ramirez can stay healthy, he has the potential to be a top-5 third baseman in the draft. Like Scott Rolen, Ramirez was shut down before the end of the 2005 campaign and will be searching for early form in April. When Ramirez is right, he and Rolen (along with guys like Eric Chavez, David Wright and Chipper Jones) help form a very competitive position at the hot corner from a fantasy standpoint. Ramirez may fall slightly because of concerns over his availability, but Ramirez is a no-doubt 30/100 player who keeps his strikeouts down. Even if he has a setback, he’s worth the wait – and don’t forget that Derrek Lee was on base almost 42% of the time last season, either.
Juan Pierre (CF) – Pierre only has great value in one category, but that one category means all the difference to the makeup of your fantasy team. Everyone needs speed, and with a few OF spots to fill, Pierre can give you plenty. Pierre has stolen 30+ in each of his 5 full big league seasons, and expect 40+ annually until further notice. Although he dipped far below .300 last season, Pierre is a career .305 hitter who walks more than he strikes out (although a pedestrian .326 OBP last season), and he’s good for double-digit triples. But ‘buyer beware’ if your league has Caught Stealing: Pierre is annually top three in this category.
Kerry Wood (SP) – In most seasons, Wood is deserving of top-notch considerations. In his four full seasons, Wood has struck out 200+ each time. He’s always had a propensity for wildness and walked his fair share of hitters, and he’s never been a consistent winner (never won 15 games), but those strikeouts. Wood is much like his Texas counterpart Nolan Ryan in many ways: the opposition rarely hits them, often strikes out, he won’t give you anything and apparently isn’t afraid to put you on base either. Unfortunately for Wood, he’s got none of the Ryan Express’ durability, and at 28 it’s a wonder whether he’ll put it all together at some point. Wood is hurt again and his immediate future is in doubt, but keep an eye on Wood during the season because, whether as a reliever or starter, he misses and breaks a lot of bats.
The Third Tier
Greg Maddux (SP) – Although Maddux is removed from his mind-bogglingly great seasons, he’s still a viable option for your staff, depending on the size of your league and rosters. Although he doesn’t strike out many, he’s still got a 4/1 K/BB ratio and is an absolute workhorse. Although his ERA has risen each of the last three seasons, it’s not out of the question that Maddux will make a stand and maintain his numbers, even at his age. Regarded as a veteran with moxie, he may well rebound from his first losing season and 4.20+ ERA season since 1987 (coincidentally or not, with the Cubs). Although, this is not a probability, approach Maddux with an open mind toward the latter stages of your draft.
Jacque Jones (RF) – Jones leaves the dark indoor stadium with Glad-baggy outfield walls and heads to the ivy of Wrigley and the team that plays the most day games in baseball. The transition from leagues as well as the difficult daytime sun in Chicago makes Jones a wait and see pick. He’s always been a streaky hitter and has never been considered a guy who will ever hit 30 HR or drive in 100 runs, Jones could get you 15 SB and 25 HR depending on the wind conditions. A lot of his success will depend on the tandem performance of Lee and Ramirez in front of him, but nonetheless Jones is still unconvincing as a corner outfield draft pick until the latter rounds. A slightly slim RF crop may be his saving grace.
Ryan Dempster (RP) – Dempster pulled off improbable success in his first stint taking the ball in the 9th. His K/BB ratio has always been bad, he’s been susceptible to the HR ball in the past, and his career ERA is nearly 5.00 – but he doesn’t seem afraid of the 9th yet. It’s possible that Dempster could pick up another 30 saves this season, but his experiment is probably on a shorter leash now that sturdy vets Scott Eyre and Bob Howry have been added to the Chicago pen. If you need saves, he’s a worthy pick, but keep your eye on the Cubs, because they still haven’t proven that they’ve settled the closer situation – they’ve had 10 closers over the past 11 seasons and no back-to-back seasons by the same closer since the strike in 1994.
Todd Walker (2B) – Walker had a nice season for a second baseman last year, breaking the .300 plateau for his first time in 8 years and posting a respectable .355 OBP and .474 SLG. He’s good for 10-15 HR, doesn’t score runs, doesn’t steal bases, but doesn’t strike out and has doubles power. He’s had some bad defensive seasons in the past, but if your league doesn’t have defensive stats included and you miss out on some of the truly worthwhile 2B in your draft, give Walker a look. He’s playing for a contract and, at 33, isn’t getting any younger. On an optimistic note, at least Pierre will be in scoring position for Walker more often than guys like Corey Patterson were, so there’s an outside chance Walker could drive in 70+ runs.
Michael Barrett (C) – For a catcher, Barrett puts up pretty decent numbers, actually. In his two seasons in Chicago, Barrett has hit 16 HR and 32 2B each season. In addition, he managed to post batting marks of .287 and .276, respectable numbers for the position. Much of his value might hinge on the ability of Jacque Jones to make his adjustments, but don’t expect any deviation too far from Barrett’s very-consistent 2004 and 2005 seasons. Maybe being called upon to catch for Team USA in the WBC was the sort of wakeup call Barrett needed to jump-start his career at 29, but wait and see if you’re stuck first.
Bob Howry (RP) – Howry has had two terrific seasons as he enters the National League, and he is the odds-on favorite to be doing most of the setting up for Dempster, at least at first. If and only if your league has holds, Howry is an option. But with the depleted starting rotation corps and an average offensive unit, you might be better off looking to the top contenders for your setup men. Still, Howry has posted ERAs of 2.74 and 2.47 the last two seasons and has had experience closing in Chicago (with the White Sox) before.
Question Marks
Ronny Cedeno (SS) – It appears that the Cubs have handed the shortstop reigns to Cedeno. He hit .300 over his 41-game call-up, but managed only 4 extra base hits in 80 at bats and didn’t register a steal. Certainly not someone to draft, but potentially someone to look for during a hitting streak if you are jumbling injuries to middle infielders.
Matt Murton (LF) – Like Cedeno, the guy just isn’t proven. He was called up for 51 games, and during that period did manage to hit .321. The organization believes that Murton could be a 20-30 HR guy, but I’ll believe it when I see it. He’s shown enough selectiveness to suggest he can maintain a good OBP and AVG, but at 24 it’s unclear whether the power is there just yet.
Jerome Williams (SP) – Williams would have little value if it weren’t for the injuries to Prior and Wood. Now, all of a sudden, Williams becomes the #3 starter in the mix with Glendon Rusch. He won’t be seeing his turn skipped, and might have the potential to even win a game or two. A former 10-game winner with a career 3.92 ERA, Williams will have the chance to prove himself, if nothing else. Probably not a draft consideration, but after a few weeks if it appears that Williams will stick in the rotation, keep an eye out.
