The Arizona Diamondbacks are a team in transition and don’t offer any fantasy stars. However, the team does offer plenty of solid picks for later rounds or middle-round picks for NL-only leagues.
The Top Tier
SP Brandon Webb - An easy pick as your second or third starter, Webb has grown immensely since his MLB debut just three years ago. While he doesn’t try to strike lots of batters out, Webb does sport the league’s best sinker, which caused 172 whiffs in 2005. A respectable ERA of 3.54 will most certainly decrease this year with the addition of Gold Glover Orlando Hudson at second. Like many other Diamondbacks, Webb will be around in the middle rounds. You can count on him for 12-15 wins, an ERA around 3.00 and at least 160 Ks.
The Second Tier
3B Chad Tracy - After Webb, things get shady, but Tracy is a fantasy player who won’t do anything to hurt you. Because of the time he spent at first last year, Tracy will have duel position eligibility for 2006 at first and third base. At either position, he’d be considered toward the top level of players after smacking 27 home runs in 2005 with a .308 average. The changes within the lineup will probably leave his RBI opportunities around the same, so don’t expect any more than 80-85. Because both first and third are relatively deep positions, you can probably wait to pick-up Tracy until the middle rounds. He projects as a much more useful third baseman, but He could provide Lyle Overbay-like numbers for you at first. Expect an average in 2006 closer to his rookie season of .285.
CL Jose Valverde - Unlike last year, there’s no question about the closer situation in Arizona in 2006. After saving 15 games for the Diamondbacks last year, he’ll definitely get a decent amount of chances to save around 30 this season. While that number may be pedestrian for closers, look at Valverde’s strikeouts from last year. In only 66 innings, he struck out 75 batters. There’s potential for a 100 K season if he gets enough work, but that’s putting his ceiling pretty high. He should finish with a handful of wins, around 30 saves, 80-90 strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00.
The Third Tier
RF Shawn Green - Green will never be the threat he once was, but much like Tracy, he certainly won’t ruin your team if you draft him. He’ll be about as run-of-the-mill as you can imagine for an outfielder, hitting between 20-25 home runs and around .290. If you’re desperate for an OF in the late rounds, Green will most certainly be available. But, you could find plenty of other players who have higher upsides like Jose Guillen or Magglio Ordonez.
LF Luis Gonzalez - A running theme for Arizona, they provide plenty of average fantasy picks. It’s hard to believe that in 2001, Gonzalez hit 57 homers en route to a world championship. Since then, his highest total has been 28. At 39, he’s not getting any younger and could experience a Steve Finley drop-off from his numbers in 2005. A decline is almost guaranteed, but it’d be reasonable to get 20 homers, 80 RBI and a .270 batting average from Gonzalez.
The Question Marks
1B Conor Jackson/Tony Clark - It’s projected that both these players will split time at first to start the season, but depending on how the team fares in April and May, we might know who will start the rest of the season as soon as June. Clark is coming off a monster year for him, hitting a surprising 30 home runs while batting .304 in only 349 at-bats. Remember though that until last year, Clark hadn’t hit 30 homers since 1999 and isn’t likely to do it again unless he gets around 400 ABs. Jackson could be an average first baseman with regular playing time, but don’t expect more than 15 home runs and a .275 average for this first full season. He could be valuable in keeper leagues for a year or two down the road.
CF
Eric Byrnes - What a trip it has been for Byrnes in the
last year. From Oakland to Baltimore to Colorado then back to
Oakland and now Arizona. No matter where he plays, Byrnes has
the potential to go 15/15. He’s on a one-year deal, so he’s
playing for his next contract. Grab him in the very late rounds
and expect 10 homers and 10 steals with a .270 average.
