The Blue Crew have been very blue lately, spending a lot of time on the disabled list and otherwise not winning, despite playing in one of the worst divisions in baseball with one of the highest payrolls. The team’s talent is undeniable. The starting rotation has been solid, a good bullpen, and the offense has some very valuable contributors. Let’s take a look at just what their fantasy value is.
The Top Tier
2B Jeff Kent – Around several baseball forums, I have been getting a lot of guff for being favorable to Kent. After all, he’s ancient, standing in at 38 years of age. But he’s been so consistent throughout his career, you just gotta expect another good season from him. The second baseman has the talent to go .290/30/100 on you, especially hitting in the middle of that lineup. I list him here because I think he’s one of the best 2B in your draft.
The Second Tier
SS Rafael Furcal – When they say it’s not about the money, it’s all about the money. Furcal dashed for LA’s three year, $39 million deal without giving second hesitation to the Braves’ offer (embittered Braves’ fan here). He’ll get you quite a few steals, probably 40-45 and hit for a decent average (.280-ish) and score a few runs, but I wouldn’t expect a repeat of his power numbers. You should compare him to Jimmy Rollins. Overall, the new Dodgers’ shortstop should be fine if his knee is fine.
SP Derek Lowe – This right hander went through a difficult first half last season, some of which should be attributed to divorce proceedings. The second half of the year was a major improvement (3.99 ERA before the Break, 3.17 after). If he can stay healthy for an entire season, expect very solid numbers, like 16/17 wins and a 3.20 ERA. Plus, his WHIP will never kill you, so he should do much more good than harm.
The Third Tier
RP Danys Baez/Yhency Brazoban – With Gagne coming back from major elbow trouble, Baez and Brazoban stand first in line should something happen. My guess is that Baez will get first dibs should anything go wrong. It’s almost a certainty that Gagne won’t be used on consecutive days early in the year, which means someone has to pick up the saves. You can also look to these guys for good strikeout numbers in head-to-head leagues.
OF Jose Cruz Jr. – In seasons past, Cruz Jr. has been a good source of cheap power. However, he often times dragged down your team’s average. If he gets the every day job, count on him for something like .240/25/75. These numbers are not awe-inspiring, but it’s likely he won’t even get drafted in a 12 team, mixed league draft. Use him only as a backup, but avoid if super prospect Joel Guzman makes the Opening Day roster.
OF Kenny Lofton – It’s weird to keep seeing his name, but Kenny Lofton is still in baseball. With the Phillies last season, Lofton put up some decent numbers, especially a gaudy batting average of .335. With Furcal at the top of the lineup, expect Lofton (and Furcal) to have a perpetual green light and quite a few runs scored in front of JD Drew and Jeff Kent. How long can he keep it up? It’ll be interesting to see.
3B Bill Mueller – I’ve only listed him on here because the third baseman is a former batting champion. It would be very unlikely for him to reproduce those numbers, but something along the lines of .290/15/70 is very possible. These aren’t too valuable numbers, but it’s the third tier. If you’re in an especially deep or NL Only league, you should remember his name, but otherwise look elsewhere.
Question Marks
OF JD Drew – Drew was having a rather fine season until an errant pitch struck his wrist and broke it. “Boo Hoo” Drew has missed significant time over his career to injuries, except the year he played with the Braves. This season will go a long way in determining his future: whether he managed to stay on the field for a new contract and now won’t go out for his team because he’s got the guaranteed money or if he is turning over a new stone. If he is, he’s one of the best overall players in the Major Leagues.
RP Eric Gagne – He’s one of the best in the business, I know. However, he’s coming off major elbow issues. Doctors were whispering Tommy John surgery, but the Dodgers’ closer managed to avoid the big thing. It’s never good when that happens, because a ligament could explode at any time now. Explode just like his fastball, when it’s on. As I’ve said, he’s one of the best, but there’s a health disclaimer here, at least in my mind.
1B/SS/3B Nomar Garciaparra – If Garciaparra had stayed healthy, he would have been ranked in the top tier category. However, ever since 2003, things just haven’t fallen his way. The former shortstop rejected a four year, $60 million offer from the Red Sox and began to spiral downward. At least he managed to marry Mia Hamm. Rather than discussing that fantasy, let’s talk about his fantasy value. If healthy, and that’s the big question surrounding him, Garciaparra should be counted for a high (.310-.320) batting average and 15-20 bombs. He’s a very valuable player, because you can stash him at short or third.
SP Brad Penny – The talent has always been there, but he has not done a very good job harnessing it. The right hander continually puts up average numbers when he could do much better. This spring training, he has been working with Sandy Koufax on his curveball, which should only improve things. Look for and expect great things from him this coming year, but don’t draft him earlier than the late teen rounds. The biggest question is if he’ll find his happy place and put up the numbers that we all expect.
SP Odalis Perez – This southpaw hasn’t done much to impress in the strikeout department, but a move to the Chavez Ravine was just what the doctor ordered. Perez has the talent to win 15 games with a very nice ERA over 200 innings. His WHIP will only help your team, so he deserves to have a spot somewhere on your team, just closer to the bottom than the top. The only question is whether or not he’ll pitch at the level of seasons past.
SP Jae Seo – It’s difficult to figure out why the Mets gave up on him. The right hander, in his inaugural full season with the Mets, started 31 games with an ERA of 3.82. I don’t care what anybody thinks, those are some fine numbers. Last season, Seo proved himself even more valuable, stepping in when injuries riddled the Mets’ staff. The only question is if he’ll stay together for an entire year. If everything falls his way, Seo will give you some very good numbers, albeit lacking in the strikeout category.
Daniel is an AtHomePlate blogger; to see his article archive, click here.
