Fantasy Take: The San Francisco Giants

Fantasy Take:  The 2006 San Francisco Giants

You can almost hear the joints on this team creaking - especially if you are sitting in the outfield bleachers.   This team is old with three 40+ year old outfielders and a middle infield made up of 39 year old Vizquel and 34 year old Ray Durham.  This team is a mass of injury risks and declining skills; that being said there are some good fantasy players in the mix.

The Best of The Bunch: 

Barry Bonds (OF) - The major league’s most daunting hitter returns to the batters box with his body armor and what’s supposed to be a healthy knee.  What’s out of the picture are his personal trainer Greg Anderson and the mysterious “nutritional supplements”, which helped him become the single season home run king.  Nonetheless, this guy has more talent than probably any hitter in recent memory and unless health issues sideline him again this season, he will be a fantasy monster.  I almost dropped him to the questionable category due to health, age and steroid concerns, but that might be enough to scare away many potential suitors.

Jason Schmidt (SP) - After several years of being an elite fantasy option, Schmidt was plagued by injuries and struggled last year, (4.40 ERA, 12 W, 1.42 ERA and 165 K).   Just what to expect from him in 2006 is very unclear, he’s 33 years old and could be in decline or he could return to the elite rankings.   In any case someone will pay for him as if he were elite. If it’s you, know that you are rolling the dice.

Armando Benitez (CL) - Benitez is an excellent closer when he’s healthy and he seemed to be back in form when he returned last season.   If the body holds out he’s likely to return to the 40 save club and average close to a strikeout per inning.

Pedro Feliz (2B/3B/OF) - Feliz has 20-25 home run power, but he’s a low OBP type player; the kind who can drop off the radar at any time.  That could be a problem since he’s going to be forced into an everyday role as the team’s starting third baseman.  What you got last year .250-20-81 is probably the high end, but that’s not bad for a third baseman

The Third Tier:

Ray Durham (2B) - Last year was the first year since coming to San Francisco that Durham played anything approaching a full season; the results were far from encouraging, (.290-12-62, 6 SB and 67 R) compared to the Durham of old.  He’ll benefit from a better offense but OBP and Runs Scored are likely to be his strongest categories.

Matt Morris (SP) - Morris isn’t an elite pitcher anymore, but he’s a solid player who always finds a way to succeed.   His last few years of win totals are probably inflated because of the St. Louis Cardinal’s offense he pitched in front of.  He still has some upside at age 31 and he may still be rebounding from arm problems which started in 2003.   Expect a better ERA and WHIP as he moves to a much more pitcher friendly division.

Omar Vizquel (SS) - Vizquel will be 39 just a month into the season and for a guy whose best fantasy asset is speed, that’s a worrisome thing.   He managed 24 steals last year and scored 66 runs.   If Bonds is healthy he should score more runs, but he’ll steal a lot less with the big man behind him. 

Randy Winn (OF) - The only regular outfielder under 40 for the Giants looks to be a very good one.   Batting on either side of Barry Bonds should increase his peripheral stats over a full season.  Don’t let last year’s numbers, (.306-20085 with 19 SB) fool you; he’s not likely to match either the power or speed numbers but 15-15 seems a fair assumption.

Moises Alou (OF) - Despite his age, the 41 year old Alou had a good and relatively healthy season last year, (.321-19-63).   His durability and declining skills set make him a dangerous selection anywhere but in the later rounds of a draft.   He’s not far from retirement and supposedly already had a foot out the door once, so don’t be shocked if a major injury leads him to the sidelines for good.

Noah Lowry (SP) - Lowry has some devastating stuff, but is inconsistent and has been his whole career.   He’ll benefit from a healthy Giants offense if, (and it’s a big if) Barry Bonds and the rest of the outfield produce well.   Otherwise he’s a very good number 4 pitcher in most rotations.

Tyler Walker (RP) - He served as a replacement closer in 2005 and is likely to be next in the line of succession once again.   He’ll probably get a few saves in any case, especially since Armando Benitez probably can’t go three days in a row.

The Question Marks:

Mike Matheny (C) - The 35 year old Matheny had his career best year in home runs last year with 13, that’s not going to happen again with all the pitcher’s parks in this division.   He’s a .250-8-50 guy at best.

Lance Niekro (1B/OF) - Niekro has been hyped for many years and may one day turn into a heck of a hitter, for now however he struggles against righties which could easily limit his playing time.   His first full season .252-12-46 was decidedly unimpressive and a platoon may be in the near future.

Matt Cain (SP) - The Giants have been expecting this kid to turn into something special but they might be rushing this 21 year old a bit too much.   After great success at A and AA he found AAA to be quite a bit tougher due to the long ball.  His brief stint with the big team at the end of last season showed a lot of promise but he’s not going to post numbers like the ones he put up over those 7 games (2.33 ERA, 0.93 WHIP, 30 Ks in 46 innings) for a full season.   Expect some very rough spots and an ERA at least a run and a half higher.

Steve Finley (OF) - The 42 year old Finley pretty much plunged off a statistical precipice in 2005 after a career year in 2004.  While there is a lot of speculation about why, there is no question that 2004 was a fluke.  Consider him a third or fourth tier player who’ll get limited playing time.