Fantasy Take: The Seattle Mariners

Fantasy Take: The Seattle Mariners 2006

The Mariners are a team with a lot more fantasy questions than answers in 2006. They have a handful of reliable players who you can count on and a ton of unproven, and difficult to gauge players who are worthy of consideration.

The Top Tier

Ichiro Suzuki (OF) - The 33 Suzuki had a very solid 2006 campaign but a lot of people feel it should have been better after this record setting 2005 when he hit .272. He’s a guy who contributes in all five categories and has a proven record. .300 - 10 home runs, 100 runs scored and 25 steals can pretty much be penciled in, anything more is pure cake.

The Second Tier

Richie Sexson (1B) - Richie delivered exactly what he promised in 2005, that being a mediocre average, 39 home runs, 121 RBIs and 111 runs scored. He’s a solid three category contributor but at age 31 his upside is limited. Expect a similar season and you won’t be disappointed.

Adrian Beltre (3B) - If the Mariners hadn’t given Beltre superstar money no one would have been disappointed with his .255-19-87 season, especially fantasy owners who didn’t get A-Rod, David Wright or Morgan Ensberg last season. He’s 26 and should at least match those numbers, but he could be a bargain compared to others since his upside is tremendous and he’s coming off a “down” year.

Felix Hernandez (SP) - I’m not ready to anoint him “King” Felix just yet when it comes to fantasy baseball, at least not just after 84 innings of major league experience, but the talent the 20 year old possesses is mind boggling. His 3-1 K/BB ratio and 2.67 ERA last season show that he could be an elite pitcher by the end of this year. Of course rookie hurlers are not sure things and placing him with the elite at this point is very premature, just look at Mark Prior and his sophomore season.

Eddie Guardado (CL) - 36 saves last season, a 2.72 ERA, 48 k’s in 56 innings of work. That pretty much speaks for itself. He’s not elite but he could be if the M’s hand him more leads in the ninth.

The Third Tier

Raul Ibanez (OF) - Will the real Raul Ibanez please stand up? Oh wait, he did and something along the lines of a .285-18-85 is probably the line to look for if he plays full time. If he loses playing time to Matt Lawton or Carl Everett, those numbers could fall dramatically.

Carl Everett (OF/DH) - An import from the World Champion White Sox, the 34 year old Everett still has enough power to hit 25 home runs, realistically however that number will drop due to the pitching friendly factors of Safeco Field. What you saw last year .258-23-87 is probably better than what you’ll get this year.

Jarrod Washburn (SP) - If Washburn can take advantage of a very pitcher friendly park this should be a very good season and easily could be better than last season’s mark of 8-8, 3.20 ERA, and 1.33 WHIP. He’ll be the number two pitcher for this team if Felix Hernandez turns into the real deal, otherwise he might find the pressure a lot higher than it was in Anaheim.

Question Marks:

Jeremy Reed (OF) - A lot of people thing that Reed will one day be a very good ballplayer and offer a lot of comparisons. He’s never shown much power or a lot of speed at any level of play, the one thing he’s always done well is get on base and even if he breaks out this season it’s not likely to help anyone’s fantasy team.

Jamie Moyer (SP) - He’s 43, has a rubber arm and was the ace of the M’s staff last season. Even with all of that he’s not a very good fantasy pitcher. Last year’s stats of 13 wins, 4.28 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 102 K’s might be as good as you can hope for.

Matt Lawton (OF) - The 34 year old Lawton isn’t raising a lot of fantasy eyebrows anymore. He’s injury prone, older, showing declining number and isn’t even an everyday player anymore. That being said he’s still got speed and power and if he gets the playing time he still could make a run at being a 20-20 player (though 15-20 is more likely).

Kenju Johjima (C) - Just how excited can you be about a 29 year old catcher who’s never played a game in the major leagues? That’s a big question. His Japanese resume is impressive with 126 home runs over the last 4 years and a .298 career average, but the major leagues are a step up and some adjustments are to be expected. A 15-.280 season would be a huge success and a 10-.270 wouldn’t be bad. With the dearth of good catchers available it’ll be a speculator’s market, expect him to go fairly early as far as catchers go.

Jose Lopez (2B) - Lopez is a work in progress who one day promises to be a solid all around second baseman that can help in all categories. For now the promise is unfulfilled but it’s fair to expect him to develop somewhat this season. Having the weak hitting Yuniesky Betancourt behind him in the order will however hamper the amount of quality pitches he’ll get to hit. He’s a potential sleeper but he probably needs another year of seasoning.

Joel Pineiro (SP) - To say that Pineiro had an ugly season in 2005 would be an understatement (7 wins, 5.62 ERA, 1.48 WHIP, 107 Ks). The main reason being that his velocity was down and he was relying too much on placing his pitches. Towards the end of the season he showed signs of life and he could be a bounce back candidate this year. That being said, he’s a very late in the draft kind of pickup.