The Orioles have put virtually the same team on the field for the past 2 seasons and 2006 won’t be much different. There are a couple veterans you know what to expect from and a few young pitchers with some talent. However, for the most part it is a team full of question marks in both hitting and pitching. Here’s what you can expect them to contribute to your fantasy team.
The Top Tier
SS Miguel Tejada – 2005 was considered a down year for Tejada yet he hit 304 with 26 homers and 98 RBI’s. You can’t go wrong taking Tejada as the top shortstop although his positional dominance is threatened by Michael Young (TEX). Tejada is durable and a proven producer, even if a midseason trade gets him moved out of Camden Yards. He should return to the 30 HR plateau this year. Baltimore’s lone top tier talent should be expected to go in the late first or early second round.
The Second Tier
3B Melvin Mora – Don’t bank on the 2004 version of Mora with his 340 average, 111 runs, 104 RBI’s and 11 swipes. In ‘05, his average dropped almost 60 points and his on base percentage dropped 70 points. He could be on the downside of his career and with an influx of talent at 3B Mora hovers around the 10th best option. However, he is entering the last year of his contract and has pressure to produce this season since talks with the Orioles haven’t progressed much. Mora has averaged 22 homers over the past 4 years which makes him worthy of a starting spot in your roster if the bigger names are gone.
C/DH Javy Lopez – Although Javy wasn’t happy losing his starting gig to Ramon Hernandez, his fantasy owners should be pleased. The move to DH will help reduce the wear and tear and his time on the DL this year. This should mean a return to 25+ HR’s and 80+ RBI’s. That kind of production should put him among the top 5 fantasy catchers.
C Ramon Hernandez – The move from Petco to Camden Yards will mean a bump in Hernandez’s offensive numbers. Ramon has been a steady producer over the past few seasons but has never done anything to gain much attention. Injuries over the past two seasons have kept him from getting 400 at bats so the platoon with Javy Lopez should help Hernandez stay on the field as well. A healthy season should net a 285 average, 15 HRs and 65 RBIs. A top ten fantasy catcher.
SP Erik Bedard – 2005 was the tale of two seasons for Bedard. He was 5-1 before the All Star break but like the rest of the Orioles, he struggled in the second half (going only 1-7.) Bedard averaged almost 8 strikeouts per nine innings last year so a full healthy season should get him 180+ K’s. As a third year starter, he’s a prime candidate for Leo Mazzone to mold into a quality starter in 2006.
SP Daniel Cabrera – Like Bedard, Cabrera is a third year starter that’s looking for some consistency this year. The difference is that Cabrera’s arm is even better. He’s got plenty of arm strength (reaching 100 mph 37 times last year) but has had quirky mechanics that may have contributed to his injury history. Cabrera netted almost a strikeout per inning last year so this should be the year he tops 200 K’s. If he can bring down his WHIP and ERA, he may be on his way to elite status.
The Third Tier
OF Jay Gibbons – Gibbons is often an afterthought in fantasy drafts. The problem is that there’s nothing about him that says “I have to have him.” Gibbons can contribute to your totals in HR’s (26 last year) as well as RBI’s and also had a 516 slugging percentage last year. That’s decent production but after that, he’s not going to do much for you. He can fill that 3rd or 4th outfielder spot.
SP Kris Benson – When a player’s wife gets talked about more than he does, that’s not a good sign. Benson didn’t live up to expectations in New York last year and moves to the AL. Injuries haven’t allowed Benson to prove that he can consistently produce. His numbers won’t overwhelm but he’s steady enough not to do any damage to your team either. If you’re in the teen rounds of your draft, he’ll be there if you need him.
SP Rodrigo Lopez – In 2002, his first full season in the majors, Lopez had 15 wins, 136 K’s, and a 3.57 ERA. Four years later, those are still career highs. He did manage 15 wins again last year but his other numbers just don’t command much respect. Lopez and Benson are going to be 1 and 2 in the Orioles rotation and their fantasy draft position should be about the same as well.
SP Bruce Chen – Chen may have found a home in Baltimore after getting a career high 13 wins last year. He’s fared a little better than Benson and Lopez in most drafts but doesn’t have the track record of either one of them. Chen has shuffled between starter and reliever just as he’s been shuffled around the league (8 teams in 7 years.) Perhaps being reunited with Leo Mazzone will provide some stability.
1B Kevin Millar/Jeff Conine – These guys are virtually the same player so they get lumped together. Both are great clubhouse guys and contribute to a real life team but neither guarantees any production for your fantasy team. They will likely bounce around between 1B, DH, and outfield. If position eligibility helps you in your AL only league, these guys are worth a roster spot. Otherwise, they’ll be waiting on the waiver wire.
Question Marks
2B Brian Roberts – Roberts fits this category perfectly. He certainly produced top tier numbers early in 2005 and his overall numbers suggest a second tier rating. However, there are a few concerns. Only 3 of his 18 HRs came after the All Star break, creating a question of what to expect this year. Offseason surgery on his left elbow has kept him out of most of spring training. Roberts played in his first spring game on Tuesday (March 21st) and the arm did absorb a pretty good hit as Roberts dove to make a play. He expects to be in the opening day lineup. Leading off Baltimore’s lineup, Roberts won’t match his home run total of last year but 8-10 homers and 25-30 stolen bases will keep him among the top 5 options at a weak position.
OF Corey Patterson – After a horrible 2005 that had Patterson spending time in Triple A ball, Chicago traded the player that was once expected to be a fixture in the ivy at Wrigley. Hopefully, this trade ends up better for Baltimore than the last outfielder they got from the Cubs. Don’t forget that Patterson put together a pretty good season and a half in 2003 and 2004. While he won’t match the 298 average he had in ’03, he is still only 26 and can provide 20-20 numbers from a centerfielder.
RP Chris Ray – BJ Ryan wasn’t anything special before 2005 when Baltimore decided to take a chance on him. He managed 36 saves before heading north to the Blue Jays. That leaves the O’s to take a chance on another unproven closer. Chris Ray and his 40 innings of big league experience will get first shot. Ray did average 9.5 K/9 in those 40 innings and has the stuff to match what Ryan did last year. Whether he does it in 2006 is the question.
SP/RP Hayden Penn – Penn is a top prospect for the Orioles so he gets a short note. He struggled in his callup to the majors last year but he’s been pitching well in spring training. He will still start the 2006 season in Triple A. If you’re in a keeper league or deep AL only league, he’s worth a shot.
