Written by Tony Meale
Published: 26 August 2009
Back in April, I wrote a column about the dangers of getting too comfortable too soon with the early season success of your fantasy team and the individuals comprising it. I also advised all of you Evan Longoria owners to test the trade waters to determine how big a bite you could get for the Tampa third baseman, who, at the time, was as hot as hot could be.
Well, I hope you got a few nibbles.
After starting red-hot, Evan Longoria is going through a prolonged dry spell now.
Through April, Longoria was hitting .369 with six homers, 24 RBIs and 17 runs scored. His stats extrapolated to a full season would have equated to 46 bombs, 185 runs knocked in and 145 runs scored -- numbers, as you know, that are just silly.
Longoria’s hot start continued through May. Entering play on June 1, Longoria was hitting .327 with 13 home runs, 55 RBIs and 38 runs, which meant he was on pace for 41 long balls, 175 RBIs and 121 runs. A slight drop off from the April estimations, sure, but an insanely good prognosis nevertheless.
Since then, Longoria was gone from torrid to horrid. From June 1 to Aug. 24 -- nearly three months -- Longoria has hit .228 with 11 homers, 33 RBIs and 33 runs to give him current season totals of .273/24/88/71. At this point, he’s on pace to finish with 33 homers, 121 RBIs and 98 runs scored.
Now, is that a bad season? Certainly not. But given the numbers steady he posted through May, Longoria owners have to be a bit disappointed that this is where he’s at this point in the season. His batting average dropped four months in a row from .369 in April to .296 in May to .233 in June to a you-can’t-be-serious .189 in July.
The other player I mentioned in that April column was Ian Kinsler. I won’t go through the same rigmarole with the Texas second baseman, but after a stellar April that would have put him on pace for a .322/54/154/138/54 season, Kinsler -- entering play on August 24 -- is hitting .245 with 26 homers, 69 RBIs, 79 runs scored and 24 steals.
Terrible? Definitely not. Disappointing given his start? You betcha.
Oh yeah, and Kinsler landed on the DL. Shocking.
Am I advising you to just trade away all of your early round draft picks that get off to a fast starts? No. I wasn’t then, and I’m not now. What I’m advising is this: If you’ve got a player who is playing absolutely out of his mind, you have to put him on the market and see what happens. Every league has at least one guy who will wildly overspend for a player who has nowhere to go but down.
Don’t get greedy; you have to know when to quit when you’re ahead. Before it’s too late.