|2006 Buy and Sell I||| Print ||
Written by Daniel Paulling (Contact & Archive) on May 03, 2006
Every May, there comes a time when fantasy owners start to panic. It’s been one whole month, and their starting shortstop still hasn’t put up anything or their number two starter keeps getting shelled. The first idea that comes into their mind is, “That , you need to get off my team right now.” This can be good for you. That player is the perfect candidate to buy low. Trade for him and you’ve got five good months left. In return, you gotta send someone back. Why not give the opposing owner someone who’s overachieving? Let them have their fluky player that puts up declining stats over the next five months. You’ll get the better part of the deal when you sell-high, buy-low.
SP Doug Davis, Milwaukee Brewers – This southpaw filled out many staffs for me because he gives me what I want: strikeouts, decent ERA, and plays for a good team — which means wins. Not too bad from your third or fourth (or fifth) guy. I may look ridiculous with his 6.39 ERA and 1.87 WHIP right now, but he’s turning things around, especially after that great outing against the Cubs. Trade for him and get the good numbers he’ll put up.
SS Rafael Furcal, Los Angeles Dodgers – Furcal’s season so far can be simply defined as “absolutely atrocious.” He’s batting below the Mendoza line (.198) with no homers and only 2 RBIs. But he was drafted for the steals, and he’s got a respectable six in that category. This is the same player who went on a tremendous tear down the stretch last season (over .320 batting average the last three months). I expect the numbers in every category to rise starting very soon because he’s finally getting over his knee problems.
2B Marcus Giles, Atlanta Braves – Furcal’s former double play partner has been playing through a finger injury, and while I normally steer clear of players with anything wrong with their hands, I know he’s a gamer, and I recommend you pick him up. With Edgar Renteria and Chipper Jones finally back, he’ll have better bats behind him to drive him in. Combine that with his eventual health, and Giles will be a top 8 2B at least. Brian’s younger brother has the talent to contribute a little bit in all five categories.
SP Felix Hernandez, Seattle Mariners – This 20-year old kid has some of the best stuff in the Major Leagues. Stuff isn’t the only thing that gets you the awards; control, which Hernandez does have, is part of the Major League puzzle. I expect a complete and total turnaround from Hernandez because he’s just too good, and he’s striking out over a batting an inning. Throw out the one bad outing against the Indians, and he’s golden. Folks, there’s a reason why his nickname is King.
CL Jason Isringhausen, St. Louis Cardinals – A few non-save situations was all it took to get Izzy’s ERA (6.00) and WHIP (2.00) to the point where not many owners would want him. I wouldn’t be one of those guys. Eleven times out of ten, I’d trade for the closer on a team with a great chance to win 100 games. Expect 45 saves from May on out, just like he did last year.
2B Jeff Kent, Los Angeles Dodgers – Insofar, Furcal’s current double play partner’s stats are putrid -- .183/1/12. That’s a good thing, a very good thing. Trade for him as soon as possible, because this year, Kent will put up a .280/30/100 campaign. Guaranteed. It’s what he does every year. And when he finishes the season with those numbers, he’ll have superstar production for the remainder of the season.
CL Brad Lidge, Houston Astros – Let those people talk about Lidge’s postseason bomb to Albert Pujols. I don’t care! I want Lidge on my team. This closer has the stuff to dominate opposing hitters (he has struck out 19 over 12.2 innings so far this year). Play up those bad outings and trade for this guy, before he goes through eight games in which he saves eight, strikes out 14, and has a perfect 0.00 ERA.
SS Jhonny Peralta, Cleveland Indians – Last year was a fluke. That’s what you should be telling the current Peralta owner. The Indians don’t really heat up until the second half, and Peralta is going to be a big part of that because manager Eric Wedge keeps hitting him high in the order. Expect a ton of production across the board (minus steals), which makes him a top five SS.
OF Scott Podsednik, Chicago White Sox – When Scott Podsednik was drafted, the opposing owner took him for two reasons: runs scored and stolen bases. He hasn’t stolen many bases or scored many runs, but that’s going to change. Eventually, Pods will recover from the hamstring problem currently bugging him, and he’ll score 110 runs and swipe 50 bags. The smart owner will have him on their team for the majority of those.
1B Richie Sexson, Seattle Mariners – If you currently own Big Sexy, don’t worry about him. If you don’t own him, chase him like none other. The batting average will always be low (it’s at .213 right now, but expect it to be around .250 at the end of the year), but the home runs will always be high. For the remainder of the season, I expect a .260-ish average with 35 homers and 85 RBIs. Yeah, he’s that good.
OF Moises Alou, San Francisco Giants – This eighty-four year old outfielder is going to break down sometime this season. He’s always had injury questions surrounding him, even when he was younger; now that he’s even older, we should expect even more strained muscles and back spasms. Expect a .290-ish average, 15-20 homers, and 60-70 RBI’s for the remainder of the season. Not horrible numbers, but you could get someone better in return.
SP Erik Bedard, Baltimore Orioles – Down the stretch last season, Bedard fell apart (2.08 ERA before All Star Break, 5.44 after). The southpaw has never pitched 150 innings in one season before, so we should see diminishing returns at that point, if not before. Not even Leo Mazzone can teach health. Sell him before his ERA floats up too high.
SP Jose Contreras, Chicago White Sox – Last year’s postseason was exceptional, I’ll give you that, but Contreras lost his good friend Orlando Hernandez this offseason. That’s going to be a huge blow. The ChiSox bullpen looks weaker this season (less wins), and look at his K/IP: 17K/37.1 IP. That does not bode well for the future. I doubt the guy who owns Felix Hernandez will trade him to you straight up, but it’s worth a shot.
OF Johnny Gomes, Tampa Bay Devil Rays – Gomes is 25 years old, and he’s putting up some brilliant statistics -- .291/11/23. In other words, he’s tied with David Ortiz for most home runs in the American League after one month. Bet you would have never made that bet. Anyway, I need to discuss why he’s a sell-now candidate. Nearly one-third of his ABs last season resulted in a strikeout. With 348 at-bats to your credit, those 113 Ks sure look like a lot. Combine that with only 39 walks, and you begin to see my point. It’s very doubtful a player with a 4:1 K/BB ratio succeeds very long, just like a pitcher with a 4:1 K/BB ratio does very well.
1B Nick Johnson, Washington Nationals – He’s got a funky haircut, so you have to give him props for that, as well as his tremendous batting eye (.387 career OBP). However, he can never stay on the field, despite playing one of the least grinding positions in baseball -- first base. Even if he stayed on the field for the entire year, previous trends say that he’ll only contribute in the batting average category. Sell him after he gave you a .330 average this far into the season and be grateful.
SS Hanley Ramirez, Florida Marlins – In Double A ball last year, Ramirez had a .720 OPS. For a “super prospect,” that’s not too good. In fact, that’s atrocious. The Marlins decided to bring him up to the Major Leagues, give him the trial by fire, and he responded by hitting .292 and stealing seven bags. That’s fine and dandy, but you don’t seriously expect him to continue on this streak, do you? He’s bound for a cool spell after Major League pitchers adjust to him.
1B Chris Shelton, Detroit Tigers – It may be too late to get maximum return for Shelton, but now is the time to move him. We all know he won’t continue at anywhere near the pace he set in the first two weeks of the year, nor will he hit many more than 30 homers for the entire season. Maybe you should start chatting up the Richie Sexson owner in your leagues, because that would be a perfect match.