Fantasy: At A Discount

With the 2006 fantasy baseball season quickly approaching some of us are already turning thoughts to players who might be picked up at a discount, based on injury or bad slumps which occurred last season. Here are 10 premier type players who’ll very likely be undervalued by at least a few dollars, or can be picked up at bargain prices, and probably still have some skills left to rebound with.

1B) Jim Thome - Back injuries are a tricky thing but everything possible has been done to ensure that it’s a healthy Thome who takes the field in 2006. The move to the familliar AL Central will probably help his confidence and DHing should allow him to rebound better from the aches and pains that might haunt him during the season. This will boost his offensive output as well. If he’s healthy he’s a lock for .270-25-90 if he’s still hurt .240-3-9.

2B) Jose Vidro - Limited to just 87 games and without much in the way of offensive support behind him, Vidro turned in his worst season since 1998. He looks to be healthy, albeit a healthy 31 years old, going into this season. An improved Washington offense should boost his numbers, but how much higher they’ll go is anyone’s guess.

3B) Mike Lowell - Lowell fell off the radar in 2005 managing just a .263-8-58 after two seasons where he bordered on the edge of greatness with averages between .276-293 and 27-32 home runs per season. A lot of speculation has arisen that Lowell hit the wall due to withdrawal from steroids. If that’s true don’t expect much of a bounce back, but if he can manage to rebound to even a .280-18-80 he’ll be a steal for under $5.

SS) Edgar Renteria - Renteria really didn’t have a bad season in 2005 even by Renteria’s usual standards. His production was down but wasn’t so far off the scale that it justifies the bad rap that he’s gotten - except that the majority of his fantasy value mainly focused on his legs. He went from 34 steals in 2003 to just 9 in 2005. That drop off could be due to bad legs, unfamiliarity with the American League or just getting older (he’s 30). However part of that might also be that the Red Sox limited Renteria’s pilfering and counted on Manny and Ortiz to drive the man home. He’s a good bet to at least better last season at a bargain price this year.

OF) Magglio Ordonez - Magglio hasn’t played more than a half season since 2003 but back then he was considered a top ten fantasy player who’d contribute in 5 categories. He’s fallen a long way since then mostly due to a mystery ailment of his bone marrow edema. No one really knows what it was, at least no one who’s talking to the media. What is certain is that Magglio played half a season last year and showed that he still has the eye to be a good hitter. The real question is if the power and speed can or will return. He only managed 8 home runs last year but it sets off some alarms that only one of them came in September and October last year.

OF) Carlos Beltran - Going into last season Beltran was the most coveted player in a lot of fantasy drafts. Those who spent big dollars on him were cursing their gullibility for believing the hype. Beltran’s good, but he wasn’t worth $30 plus dollars. His failure to reach 20-20 and his .266 average in 2005 will drop him into the second or third tier of outfielders with a commenserate price reduction. He’s better than that and a very similar player to the healthy Torii Hunter from last season. Because of that he’s a good gamble to better last season’s numbers.

OF) Craig Wilson - Wilson seemed to have the curse of the mummy last season, every time he got healthy another injury would put him right back into bandages. Because of that his numbers plunged from (.264-29-82) in 2004 to (.264-5-22) in 2005. He’s no longer got catcher eligibility which is a shame, but he’s got tremendous power which makes him a good option for a third or fourth outfielder.

C) Javy Lopez - Was that the proverbial cliff Javy fell off last year, or was it injury and age catching up with him? In one of baseball’s best hitting parks Javy posted one of the worst years of his career managing just a .278-15-49 in 103 games. It probably wouldn’t have been so bad if the injuries didn’t always seem to involve his hands robbing him of power. Expect a rebound season with some improvement and talk him down at your draft.

SP) Roy Halliday - It’s a gamble as to if Halliday is going to be his usual self going into 2006. He was having a Cy Young type of season when he was struck by a line drive off the bat of Kevin Mench which shattered his tibia. The broken leg might not effect his arm but it could effect his mechanics, that at the very least should be a slight concern to a fantasy managers. It may also scare away potential buyers and should at least drop his value by a handful of dollars.

RP) Armando Benitez - So what if he’s not a big game pitcher? That’s not a concern in fantasy baseball. Another injury plagued season pulled Benitez’s value down by at least a few dollars, maybe more if you talk up his injury history and plug Tyler Walker as the sure fire closer in SF. That’s not going to be the case. With the Giants retooled and healthy for 2006 they look to be the favorite to win the division. That should give Benitez plenty of chances to rack up the saves.