Are There Any Repeats for the 2005 Fantasy Surprise Team?

by Daniel Paulling
February 16, 2006

There are MLB players that seemingly come from nowhere and produce real numbers for their Major League Baseball team every year. In fantasy baseball, it is important to know who those guys are and what to reasonably expect from them. Here are the breakout players from last season and their chances to repeat this year.

C Bengie Molina – The eldest of the Molina Trio, Bengie became a free agent this off-season. Luckily for fantasy owners, he spurned a three year offer from the Mets and ultimately chose the Toronto Blue Jays. His move should not worry anyone, as the ballpark change won’t make much difference. In fact, he may be going to a more productive lineup this year.

Will he repeat? Bengie Molina absolutely can replicate his line of .295/15/69 this year, though a slight regression in his batting average may occur -- nothing major, something like seven to ten points. Those are still numbers worth drafting.

1B Chad Tracy – Tracy was a very valuable fantasy player last season, gaining eligibility at first, third base, and maybe even in the outfield (depending upon your league). With two guys named Tony Clark and Troy Glaus that were hitting, Tracy had to work extra to get in over 500 AB’s. And he did, putting up a .308/27/72/73/3 line. This season he’ll become the everyday 3B with Conor Jackson taking root at first. The team believes highly in him, which made trading away Glaus such an easy task.

Will he repeat? The difference from his first year and second year is astounding. He had 22 more at bats with 19 more round trippers. His minor league rate numbers (batting average, on-base, slugging, and OPS) all suggest that 2005 wasn’t a fluke. My guess is that he’ll regress a little, but will still be a very worthy member of your fantasy baseball team. You should expect .300/22-25/75 with 85 runs scored in a full season of AB’s.

2B Jorge Cantu – The Devil Rays are desperate for any good player and Cantu gave them what they were looking for last year. I bet they’re glad Roberto Alomar retired when he did. There won’t be any changes for him; he’ll be playing in the same park and he’ll have the position outright from the start of Spring Training.

Will he repeat? I’m leaning a little towards no here. The Devil Rays’ second baseman struck out four times for every time that he walked last season, which makes him a little bit of a free swinger. His minor league numbers tell another story: he only had one good season (power-wise) throughout his minor league career. In fact, his career slugging percentage coming up is less than .400. These are signals that last year might be a little bit of a fluke, and that you should let someone else draft him.

SS Felipe Lopez – The Cincinnati Reds could use help anywhere and everywhere, and last season, Felipe Lopez provided a little bit of it. A .291/23/85/97/15 type of year would put him near the top at any position. For a shortstop, those numbers are what you pray for. Nothing major will change for him this season, so it’ll be up to him to put up those numbers again.

Will he repeat? It seems that, throughout his career, Lopez has been pushed through the minor leagues. He never stayed with one level long enough to dominate, so it took him longer than usual to reach his expected value. Leaving the Blue Jays and joining the Reds only helped matters. In his home park, he put up .305/16/55, while away was an average .277/7/30. I think he’ll have a very good year but expect .285/20/75 with around 100 runs scored and 20 steals. These are excellent numbers, if I say so myself.

3B Morgan Ensberg – If you drafted Ensberg last year, you can be classified into one of three categories: A) an Astros’ fan, B) needing someone in 16-team NL-Only league, or C) very astute/lucky. People knew the talent was there, but there were so many other third basemen to choose, like Adrian Beltre, Scott Rolen, or Chipper Jones. Ouch! Anyway, he put up one of the best seasons for a 3B, .283/36/101.

Will he repeat? His minor league numbers don’t indicate that last year was askew, so we should be inclined to expect a repeat. We could even expect more RBI’s from him, assuming of course that he has runners on base in front of him.

OF Jason Bay – A good season from Jason Bay should have been expected in 2005 after good 2004 numbers (.282/26/82), but who knew he’d be at .306/32/101 with 21 steals? These numbers place him in the top ten of outfielders from last year. This season, the Pirates will give him more protection in the lineup with guys like Jeromy Burnitz, Sean Casey, and Joe Randa.

Will he repeat? In the 2006 season, Bay will be 27 years old, which has been considered the prime year for position players. We can reasonably expect his average and power totals to remain the same, but sooner or later all sluggers stop running as much. However, I’m betting next year won’t be the year - he’ll only improve slightly on last season’s numbers. He will be someone that can produce in every category, a definite must have.

OF Cliff Floyd – When healthy, Cliff Floyd can put up very good statistics. Not elite numbers, mind you, but very good ones. Last year, Floyd spent time reading motivational books, and it helped him put up a career year. Many fantasy players probably took him in the later rounds in mixed leagues and wound up with some excellent numbers.

Will he repeat? The only way to answer that question is with another: can he stay healthy? If the answer is yes, then last year was no fluke. If the answer is no, then expect .280/20/65 from him. It depends on how much you believe, but I’ll be drafting him this year, as I have been for the previous few seasons.

OF Randy Winn – The 31-year-old Winn finished the year with some nice accumulative stats. He was having a fine year with the M’s, hitting .275 with six bombs and twelve bags, but he became a second half scorcher with the Giants, going bonkers with a BA of .359, fourteen round trippers and seven swipes.

Will he repeat? It would be wrong to project his stats with the Giants for an entire year, because there’s no way he’s a .350/30/90 type of guy. However, you would be wise to expect a .290-.295/20/80 with around 15-20 swipes. You would also be wise to notice that can help your fantasy squad, especially in NL-Only leagues.

SP Chris Carpenter – In 2004, Carpenter broke out with the Red Birds, winning 15 games with a respectable 3.46 E.R.A. He even struck out a few guys. A late-season injury might have deterred fantasy players, but someone wise grabbed him, and he put up some ridiculous stats in 2005: 213 K’s, 2.83 E.R.A., and 21 wins. All of those numbers are great for a guy probably drafted in the middle to late rounds of most mixed leagues.

Will he repeat? The biggest number that fantasy owners need to look at is 241.2, or his number of innings pitched. In 2004, Carp went down with an injury, but he exceeded that number by about 80 this year. Throughout his career he hasn’t done well at staying healthy, but it’s worth a gamble on drafting him after some of the bigger names like Santana and Oswalt are already off the board.

CL Derrick Turnbow – In my “Save Me” articles from last year, I continually bashed this guy. “He walks too many hitters,” I wrote. “Don’t bother picking up this flash in the pan.” Well, he was a flash in the pan for the entire season. He saved 39 games and threw 67.1 innings with a 1.74 E.R.A. Oh, those seven wins he accumulated were pretty nifty, too. I will admit I was wrong about him.

Will he repeat? It’s time for me to stop writing badly about Turnbow and to say something like: Mike Maddux has done an excellent job tinkering with this guy’s mechanics, and we should expect good things from him next year. Expect an E.R.A. in the 2.00 range, W.H.I.P. in the 1.10 range, 35-40 saves, and 70 strikeouts. Yep, those are excellent fantasy numbers from a closer very few people know about.

(Daniel is an AtHomePlate.com blogger. You can find his work here)