Father Time Misses His Appointment

One of the fun things to do is project current stars forward to the end of their careers. When you look at guys like Albert Pujols, Alex Rodriguez, and Derek Jeter you can’t help but do that. Yet, current players are shooting a hole in the whole aging process. Several late thirty somethings and forty somethings are having great seasons so far. Which ones will continue their upward trend?

Greg Maddux

There might not be a bigger surprise than Greg Maddux this season. Sure, everyone knows he was a capable of putting together some great numbers in the mid 1990s, but in the mid aughts it’s a bit unfathomable. Watching someone like Roger Clemens or Randy Johnson (up until last season) were consistently good, but Maddux has been in decline the last several years.

	W	L	INN	ERA	SO/9	BB/9	HR/9
2003	16	11	218	3.96	5.11	1.36	0.99
2004	16	11	212	4.02	6.39	1.40	1.48
2005	13	15	225	4.24	5.44	1.44	1.16

When people think of Greg Maddux they think of impeccable control and that is still there. Yet, his career numbers also show a great ability to keep the ball in the ballpark. The combination has been enough to overcome very ordinary strikeout numbers over the years. Maddux has always been hittable, but he keeps his hits in the ballpark and doesn’t create extra base-runners for himself. A 0.61 career mark for home runs per nine innings is tremendous, but the last three years have bucked that trend.

	W	L	INN	ERA	SO/9	BB/9	HR/9
2006	5	0	33.1	1.35	6.53	1.63	0.27

It looks like Dusty Baker actually put Maddux back on his typical regime in Atlanta. It appears to be helping. The hits won’t stay this low (23 in 33.1 innings), but the home runs are outstanding and as long as they stay this low he might have a chance to be this year’s Roger Clemens.

Mike Mussina

After the 2003 season it appeared that Mussina would be a future Hall of Famer. That issue is in doubt after two lackluster campaigns. In two scant years Mussina went from top of the rotation starter to fourth or fifth pitcher. Of course, he is paid like a top of the rotation starter, so he is just one of many drains on the Yankee payroll. Mussina was a better strikeout pitcher than Maddux (only four seasons with 200 or more strikeouts), but he also gave up more home runs.

	W	L	INN	ERA	SO/9	BB/9	HR/9
2003	17	8	214	3.40	8.18	1.68	0.88
2004	12	9	164	4.59	7.21	2.19	1.20
2005	13	8	179	4.41	7.11	2.35	1.15

One of the pecularities of the modern age is the fact that Mike Mussina has more wins than any pitcher in history without a twenty win season. It would be interesting to see if he can reach 250 wins without a 20 win season. His start here in 2006 might put that distinction to bed. You have to believe he will get enough run support with that potent Yankee attack.

	W	L	INN	ERA	SO/9	BB/9	HR/9
2006	4	1	39.0	2.31	8.54	1.85	0.69

Curt Schilling

Last season was a disaster for Schilling. Of course, he would trade a bad 2005 for a World Series run every time. Pitching on the ankle in October 2004 may have caused the hangover, but his heroics helped them win. He had three twenty win seasons in four years coming into 2005. We might have predicted this comeback, but at 39 years old you can never predict anything.

	W	L	INN	ERA	SO/9	BB/9	HR/9
2003	8	9	168	2.95	10.39	1.71	0.91
2004	21	6	226	3.26	8.06	1.39	0.91
2005	8	8	93	5.69	8.39	2.12	1.16

Schilling is proof positive that we shouldn’t pay too much attention to conventional pitching numbers. He had great K/BB ratios in all three seasons and decent home runs rates given his home parks. So, a rebound in 2006 shouldn’t have been that unpredictable. Given his post-season heroics in 2001 and 2004 might help him get over the top when it comes time to vote for the Hall of Fame.

	W	L	INN	ERA	SO/9	BB/9	HR/9
2006	4	0	40.2	2.88	8.85	1.55	0.89

It’s remarkable how consistent someone’s performance can look when you look at the right numbers. Schilling might be on pace to have another twenty win season, but his numbers aren’t remarkably different than they’ve been before. The only differences are the ERA numbers and the wins. The other numbers are very similar, so we see Schilling probably is the most predictable out of the three.

Tom Glavine

Glavine has been fairly consistent, but his won-loss record this season (3-2) holds the key of what has been happening in New York. He hasn’t enjoyed the same support he enjoyed in Atlanta. Yet, he has been productive and healthy throughout his four years in New York. People scoffed when the Mets signed the veteran to a lengthy contract, but it appears to be paying off.

	W	L	INN	ERA	SO/9	BB/9	HR/9
2003	9	14	183	4.52	4.03	3.24	1.03
2004	11	14	212	3.60	4.62	2.97	0.85
2005	13	13	211	3.53	4.47	2.60	0.51

How about a pitcher getting better as he gets older? After 2003, the Glavine signing looked like a dud, but he came back strong the next two seasons. Glavine has always relied on his fielders, but he managed to lower his walk rates and home run rates the last two seasons. Let’s see if the trends continue.

	W	L	INN	ERA	SO/9	BB/9	HR/9
2006	3	2	39.1	2.29	7.09	2.97	0.46

The strikeout rate seems abnormally high for Glavine, but he might be able to pull the other two off. Even if his strikeouts fall some, he still seems on pace to continue improving. Still, the Mets have not given him the full run support he was used to in Atlanta. Older players do fade some down the stretch typically, but all four of these pitchers could be great stories this year.