This is the final edition of the Free Agent Outlook I will be
writing, because free agency is complete. Here is a look at the
signings beginning with January 1st until present day.
(All ratings are on the basis of: excellent, good, all right,
not good, or horrible.)
(Tanyon Sturtze Signs One-Year Deal with Yankees; 1.6.2005)
Sure his numbers don’t look great for the entire season,
but Tanyon Sturtze pitched quite well for Joe Torre in the postseason,
which is how Torre begins to trust his relief pitchers. Sturtze
should get a chance to pitch quite a few innings this year, especially
in a rotation that has several injury risks. This move was:
good.
(Grudzielanek Signs with Cardinals; 1.6.2005)
Signing Grudzielanek to play second base was an excellent
move for the Cardinals. Playing the Keystone position and leading
off this excellent lineup will give Grudz plenty of runs scored
and hits. I would look for him to also hit a few homers, maybe
fifteen. This move was: good.
(ChiSox Add Backstop; 1.6.2005)
AJ Pierzynski, a former .300 hitter, moved from San Francisco
to the South side of Chicago. There were many complaints of Pierzynski’s
attitude and inabilities behind the plate, but the ChiSox are
getting a catcher that hits .300. He won’t be great in other
categories, but he should help in the lower portions of the line
up. This move was: all right.
(Odalis Returns to LA; 1.7.2005)
The Los Angeles Dodgers retained their true ace from last
season when they re-signed Odalis Perez to a three year deal.
This signing gives the Dodgers a guy who can throw 200 innings
with an ERA under 3.30. To me, that spells number two guy pretty
darned well. This move was: excellent.
(Millwood Tries Cleveland; 1.8.2005)
The Tribe was desperate for a veteran starter who can lead
a staff. Kevin Millwood needs a second chance to prove himself
as a good pitcher. Kevin Millwood may I introduce you to the Cleveland
Indians. The former Brave signed a one year deal with the Tribe
to try and prove himself a capable starter once again. At worst,
he’ll help CC Sabathia’s learning curve. This move
was: good.
(Big Trade for Big Unit; 1.11.2005)
The New York Yankees needed an ace pitcher in the ALCS of
last season to close out the Red Sawx, but could not find someone.
George Steinbrenner was probably on the phone with Jerry Coangelo
moments after game 7 of that fateful ALCS to get Unit in pinstripes.
It took a little while, but it finally went down. The Yankees
got the Unit for the “minor” price of Javier Vazquez,
Brad Halsey, Dioner Navarro, and a few million. This move was:
excellent (Yankees); good (DBacks).
(Beltran Finds Home; 1.11.2005)
The New York Mets were desperate to get a face for their franchise
to replace Mike Piazza. They turned to Mr. Postseason Carlos Beltran
and signed him to a seven year deal worth nearly $120 million.
It seems rather ludicrous to give this much money to someone who
has not proved himself in the National League. Beltran should
produce some decent numbers, but no where near the numbers you
would think. This move was: good.
(Braves Add Troubled Mondesi; 1.14.2005)
Give some props to John Schuerholz for taking risks. The Braves
General Manager brought in Raul Mondesi to play right field under
the leadership of manager Bobby Cox. If a player can’t play
for Bobby Cox, then he does not belong in the Major Leagues. I
am expecting a big year from Mondesi, like twenty to twenty-five
home runs. This move was: good.
Top 15 Review
1. Carlos Beltran – The New York Mets were tricked into
giving Beltran $119 million over the next seven years. Beltran
will man center field and should produce well at the plate, but
won’t come close to earning his paycheck. Bets are that he
will hit thirty-five bombs with 100 runs driven in.
2. Adrian Beltre – For $64 million over five years, the
Mariners locked up Adrian Beltre to play the Hot Corner. He can
produce decently, but don’t expect him to produce what his
paycheck says. I think he’s a thirty homer third baseman
for the next five years, though.
3. Pedro Martinez – Pedro Martinez signed a four year,
$53 million deal with the Mets because they were the only team
to offer him four years. He is already rather old, so this definitely
won’t be a good deal for the long term, but next year the
Mets should have a 200 strikeout, 200 inning ace for the near
future though.
4. Carlos Delgado – Delgado signed a four year,
$52 million deal with the Marlins to be the cleanup hitter. He
adds a new element to the lineup being left handed and hitting
for power. He’ll have plenty of opportunities with two speedsters
and Miguel Cabrera in front of him and Mike Lowell behind him.
Expect great numbers across the board and then subtract a little
because of the hitter’s park and new league adjustments.
5. Roger Clemens – Roger Clemens brought Houston
into the limelight when he signed with them last year. This year,
Clemens signed an $18 million deal over one year to become the
highest paid pitcher of all time. The Astros can expect 190 innings
and 200 strikeouts, pretty much the same as last season as the
Rocket propels the ‘Stros once again.
6. Richie Sexson – The Seattle Mariners were very
far down the list in power numbers last season when they played
pretty much bench players and minor leaguers. They signed Beltre
who blasted 48 last year and Sexson who clubbed 45 two years ago.
Last year Sexson missed nearly the entire season with shoulder
injuries, but he should be better and producing at a decent level
(thirty or thirty five homers).
7. Magglio Ordonez – The Detroit Tigers took a major
gamble on Ordonez by signing him to a five year, $75 million contract.
Last season with an injury plagued one, but the Tigers have several
out clauses. I don’t know what to expect from him, but if
healthy, he should produce his former numbers.
8. Odalis Perez – The Los Angeles Dodgers re-signed
their ace from last season in Odalis Perez with a three year deal.
This $25.5 million deal should prove very good, as GM Paul DePodesta
finally spent some money wisely. Expect 180 innings with a 3.40
ERA; in other words, number two starter numbers.
9. JD Drew – Another Scott Boras client, JD Drew signed
a five year, $55 million deal. This is big money for a guy who
has only had one really good season and been injury prone for
the remainder of his years. His Turner Field numbers translate
decently into Dodger Stadium, so expect thirty homers if he’s
healthy. I would avoid him if possible on draft day though.
10. Jeff Kent– Kent has hit the most home runs ever
for a second baseman in a career and clubbed twenty-seven last
year. The Astros could no longer afford him, so he signed with
the Dodgers with a two year, $17 million deal. DePodesta severely
weakened his infield defense, but this move should provide twenty
homers to the Dodger lineup.
11. Nomar Garciaparra – Nomar Garciaparra signed
a one year, $8.25 million deal with incentives to bump that up
to $11 million. The Cubs are giving Garciaparra a shot to carry
this lineup in the number two portion of the lineup. If he can
hit .320 with twenty bombs, it’s a good season and it looks
like it will be a good season.
12. Troy Glaus – The Diamondbacks are looking to get
some bang from the Hot Corner with Glaus. His four year, $45 deal
is a large bundle of money to give for someone injured for the
entirety of last season. Glaus should produce thirty homers in
this nice hitter’s park.
13. Jaret Wright – The Yankees brought in Jaret Wright
to be an ace of the staff, someone who could be a fireballer and
take control of the game. His three year, $21 million deal is
grossly too much, but he should at least win fifteen games with
the Yankee lineup behind him.
14. Carl Pavano – The Yankees have another 29-year-old
ace in Carl Pavano, taken from the Marlins. He pitched quite well
last year and won eighteen games with a 3.00 ERA. The Yankees
are definitely buying for that season when they spent $40 million
over the span of four years. I think he’ll win fifteen games,
but won’t provide much in other categories.
15. Russ Ortiz – Rounding out the top 15 is Russ Ortiz,
who signed a four year, $33 million contract with the Diamondbacks.
He had a 4.13 ERA last season and did well in the win category,
but his WHIP was not too good. I don’t see Ortiz producing
in many categories other than wins next year, but he should get
fifteen there and have an ERA around 4.30.
Feel free to leave comments in the forums or e-mail Daniel
at daniel@athomeplate.com.
