It was more than a year ago when I wrote this article explaining why the Toronto Blue Jays should have started Gabe Gross (Now a Milwaukee Brewer) in right field over Alex Rios during the 2005 season. Written just prior to that season, the article appeared to have much legitimacy after the 2005 campaign was over and Rios posted a horrible .262/.306/.397 line in 519 plate appearances. To put those offensive numbers in perspective lets go over to Baseball Prospectus and look at Rios' 2005 VORP (Value Over Replacement Player). For that 2005 season, Rios' scored a (-3.4) in this category. What does this mean? It means that in 2005 Rios contributed 3.4 runs less (offensively) than what a replacement-level player of the same position would have if given the same percentage of team plate appearances.
Gross didn't fare much better than Rios that season, but, he also didn't get legitimate opportunity to do so (.250/.324/.348 in 102 PA of Toronto). So while Rios was playing worse than a waiver-wire pickup for the Blue Jays in 2005, Gross did his business at Triple A Syracuse by posting a .297/.380/.438 batting line in 447 PA's. According to Baseball Prospectus, that performance was equivalent to a .269/.349/.396 batting line at the Major League Level, and a 1.1 VORP.
It appears as if the Blue Jays would have been better off playing Gross over Rios in 2005, but that has not been the case this season. In 2006 Alex Rios is tearing the cover off the ball and has a .356/.394/.633 batting line in 208 PA's and 10 HR's--equal to the total amount of round-trippers he hit in all of 2005. That performance equates out to a 24.1 VORP. It appears as if Rios is breaking out in 2006, and his timing couldn't be better since this past off-season the Blue Jays traded Gross to the Milwaukee Brewers; assuring him of a full-time job.
So, was I wrong when I said, "Starting Gross has too much positive potential to just 'sit on' Alex Rios and continually get mediocre year after mediocre year," in that past article? It sure appears that Rios isn't going to post "mediocre" numbers this year. Or will he?
Let break down Rios' hot start and see if there is any legitimacy behind it. Using batted ball data, and other informative statistics found over at FanGraphs.com we can get a much better look at what Rios is doing:
| Season | Team | BB% | K% | LD% | GB% | FB% | HR/FB | ISO | BABIP |
| 2004 | Jays | 6.8% | 19.7% | 20.5% | 56.7% | 22.8% | 1.3% | 0.096 | 0.355 |
| 2005 | Jays | 5.5% | 21.0% | 19.7% | 48.8% | 31.4% | 8.3% | 0.135 | 0.314 |
| 2006 | Jays | 6.3% | 17.3% | 21.6% | 35.9% | 42.5% | 15.4% | 0.285 | 0.384 |
| Total | - - - | 6.1% | 19.9% | 20.3% | 49.7% | 30.0% | 8.0% | 0.145 | 0.342 |
***In Rios's minor league career he had a 5.7 BB%, 13.8 K%, .108 ISO, and a .332 BABIP***
It appears as if Rios is showing better control of the strike zone in 2006 as displayed by his increased BB%, and decreased K%. This, no doubt, has played a part in his improvement but can't fully explain the out-of-this-world numbers he is putting up. The reasons for that are very clearly high-lighted in the above table. Rios is lifting the ball into the air this season; and doing it a lot. This isn't necessarily always a good thing, but when 15.4% of those fly balls are going over the fence, it is (AL Average HR/FR=12%). That astounding HR/FB rate has led to an ISO that is unquestionably too high for a player of Rios' caliber. A quick look at Rios' past ISO, including his minor leagues number, confirm this.
We also see that Rios, who for one reason or another has always had a high BABIP, is having tremendous success when it comes to balls in play falling for hits; even more success that he has had in the past.
Rios is playing a game that is so out-of-line with his previous track record that it is almost a guaranteed fact that he will go through a decline in the coming months, and probably a steep one.
He is sure to start hitting less fly balls, even if he has adjusted his hitting style to put more balls in the air; and sure to hit more ground balls (remember, a pitcher's number one goal is to get a hitter to hit the ball on the ground). On top of this, of the fewer fly balls that he will hit, much, much less of them will fly out of the ball park. And lastly, the dumb luck he is benefiting from with his abnormally high BABIP is sure to wane. Even if his BABIP falls to his normal rate, which is higher than average, it will still be significantly lower than his current rate.
There are far too many factors that are too out-of-line with his past record to believe we are looking at an All-Star caliber player in Alex Rios this season. Due to his hot start he is sure to finish this season with his best statistical output, but the numbers won't be anywhere near where they are at now.
Before I end the article, let's take a quick look at how Gabe Gross is performing in 2006 with the Milwaukee Brewers for comparison purposes. First, it is important to realize that Gross is suffering through another year where he will not get a full-season's worth of playing time as he is the Brewers fourth outfielder. Anyhow, in 71 PA's he has a .217/.319/.450 batting line with 4 HR's. While this is nothing compared to Rios in 2006, his OBP and SLG are both better than what normally would have been expected out of Rios this season.
You should not be surprised when you look at Gabe Gross' batting line at the conclusion of the season, in whatever amount of plate appearance he accumulates, and see that it is similar, if not better than the one Rios will post from here on out.
Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at frnkbndy@yahoo.com.
