Fantasy Mailbag 8/27/05

I play in a league where our lineups include four SP’s and two RP. I have Rich Harden, Matt Morris, Zach Duke, Mark Mulder, Tim Hudson, John Lackey, John Patterson, and Kris Benson on my roster. For relievers, I use Francisco Rodriguez and Eddie Guardado each week. I was offered Jason Isringhausen and Chipper Jones for Guardado and Duke. Should I take it?
Joe, Duluth, Minnesota

Chipper has suffered his share of injuries this year, but he has done very well when he has been in the lineup, especially since the all-star break (.341-6-22-15 in 27 games). I would however be a little wary of counting on him to be an everyday player at this point since his shoulder injury makes it real difficult for him to throw (he’s on pace for a career low in games played). Izzy has been racking up the saves, 33 and counting, despite working on his highest WHIP since 2000 (1.25). Funny thing, he is also working on a career low ERA (1.84), so it just goes to show you that relievers ratios can be a bit deceiving because they pitch so few innings.

Duke has been a revelation in Pittsburgh becoming just the second Pirate ever to begin his career 5-0. While Duke does have a 1.81 ERA and 1.17 WHIP he just injured his ankle and is likely to miss at lest one start. Since he is a young, the Pirates might use this injury as a reason to curtail his innings. Plus rookies often struggle a bit when the league gets a “book” on them. Guardado has very quietly put together a great season in the Pacific Northwest (1-1, 1.47 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 29 SV). “Everyday Eddie” seems to have fully recovered from his shoulder issues and has pitched like a champ all year.

The Izzy for Guardado portion of the trade is a coin flip as far as SV go, but Guardado trumps Izzy in ERA, WHIP, though we are kind of splitting hairs here since the differences are really rather minimal considering the number of innings they pitch. It appears to me that you really don’t need Duke at this point since you have a very strong group of SP’s, plus his recent “struggles” and his current injury make his status going forward a bit murky. I would say that any team could use Chipper, especially since he qualifies at 3B an OF in most leagues, so I would give this trade offer some serious consideration despite Chipper’s injury struggles. At the end of the day, I would accept it.


Are Melvin Mora and Brian Roberts going to produce any significant numbers in the last few months of the season, or should they be dealt while their overall numbers remain high?
Tim, Ridgefield, Connecticut

Well Tim let’s review before I answer this question.

Recall March 25th… your sitting in a room with all your buddies and you still don’t have a 2B. You realize its getting might close to the time where your gonna pull back on a six pack and review how your draft went when you decide to take a chance on Roberts in the 15th round of your mixed draft. What the heck, he scored 107 Runs and had 29 SB in 2004, so you feel that he’s a pretty good value at this point.

Flash forward to July 12th at the all-star break. Your 15th round gamble has been the story of the first half of the AL season with staggering numbers: .345-15-49-56-18 (not to mention a 1.007 OPS). Is this guy the second coming of Rogers Hornsby?

Flash forward to today. People seem to think that Roberts is the worst player ever. Sure he has struggled since the break (.243-2-12-21-7 in 38 games) but is that really surprising? Roberts isn’t a .345, 30/30 hitter, he is a quality 2B/leadoff hitter. Roberts has already set career highs in HR/RBI, and is well on pace to surpass his career highs in Runs/Hits/SB/AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS. Will he rebound to his first half levels? No way. Is he worth more in a trade at this point than keeping him on your roster? Possibly. Will he be a useful fantasy player the rest of the season? I wouldn’t bet against it since he still will score runs and garner you some SB. But everyone should give this guy a break, he has been a fantastic bargain this year.

Mora, well he’s a different story. The last two years it can be argued that he, and not Arod, has been the most valuable 3B in baseball based on what you had to pay for him on draft day (his average the past 2 years has been a spectacular .331-21-76-80). Mora, along with the whole Orioles team, has really struggled lately. In fact, Mora has been pretty awful lately. In his last 35 games he is hitting .238-1-10-11 and hasn’t hit an HR since July 15th. He has an injury to his ankle that he is dealing with, but he has shown the last two years that he is a much better hitter than this. However, in his career he is a substantially worse post-break player with lower marks in AVG/OBP/SLG/OPS after the all-star game. It’s a tough call with Mora, but I think he should bound to bounce back a bit, he’s just too good a hitter not to.


I am looking to solidify my pitching staff for the remainder of the season. My rotation is D. Willis, M. Buehrle, J. Garland and B. Myers. I have P. Clement and R. Johnson benched because of their recent lackluster performances. John Patterson is available and has been impressive lately. Would you drop either Johnson or Clement and pick up Patterson?
Richard, Nashville, Tennessee

I’m having a hard time understanding how Patterson is available in your league Richard. Why aren’t I ever in leagues where these guys are available!

Currently, Patterson is 3rd in the NL in ERA (2.43), 12th in WHIP (1.15) and 12th in K (145), not to mention the fact that he is 7th in the league in BAA (.229). Sure he’s only 8-4, but all the numbers I listed in the previous sentence better those of Clement (4.35 ERA, 1.31 WHIP, 126 K and a .256 BAA). I think those numbers show that it’s worth the trade off in wins to grab Patterson (7 Wins) and drop Clement (11 Wins). The real question boils down to would you rather have RJ or Patterson in your rotation?

Let’s look at RJ vs. Patterson based on their season numbers:
RJ: 11-8, 4.34 ERA, 167 K, 1.22 WHIP in 174.1 IP
Patterson: 8-4, 2.43 ERA, 145 K, 1.15 WHIP in 155.2 IP.

RJ has more 3 more Wins, but 4 more losses as well. Amazingly, Patterson’s ERA is 1.91 lower than RJ, meaning that if you added Patterson and Roger Clemens ERA’s together (1.56), they would still be less than RJ’s! Patterson even betters RJ in WHIP, and falls just behind in K. However, Patterson has pitched 18.2 fewer innings than the Unit, so despite having fewer K overall he basically produces them at the same rate as RJ with 8.4 K per 9 IP compared to RJ’s 8.6 mark. Let’s take this comparison one step further and look at the hurlers numbers since the all-star break.

RJ, with his back issues, has basically matched his season numbers since the break (2-2, 4.82 ERA, 50 K, 1.18 WHIP in 46.2 IP). Patterson, on the other hand, is one of the best pitchers in the NL during that time (5-2, 1.77 ERA, 65 K, 1.11 WHIP in 66 IP). In the end I would drop Clement for Patterson without a second thought Richard. And for those of you out there with RJ in your rotation, you might want to think about moving him for Patterson as well, no matter how crazy that sounds.

Ray Flowers, a member of SABR and FSWA, can be reached with comments/questions or suggestions at: ray@athomeplate.com. Please also visit Ray’s website at: www.wildpitch.blogspot.com for a plethora of baseball related posts and discussions.