Taking a Closer Look at Three Mets by Brian James Oak I was intrigued enough by our athomeplate Mets fantasy outlook, which has Beltran listed as a first tier player and Reyes and Wright as second tier players to take a closer look at the Mets in question. Preliminary fantasy drafts (think mixed 15 team leagues) have Beltran listed as a first round pick whereas the other two are solid second rounders. I differ from Jonathan in that I see them all as first tier players, but the AHP evaluation of them going Beltran first, Wright second, and Reyes third is probably the order they will fall in by most fantasy drafts. To look at them objectively, I use a system that calculates the precise value of each stat, where a homerun is worth x more than an RBI, etc. It spits out one number for each player. A calculation of 0 means that the player would give exactly the amount of value you would need to win a mixed fantasy league, given that all your other players had the same value, though, of course, you have to get a collection of guys who give you different types of stats. Most of these guys should have positive values as they are among first and second round players. The projections assume 540 at bats. Let's play with some numbers for these guys: Beltran 82R, 17 HR, 78 RBI, .268 Avg., 16 SB Value Over Ideal Fantasy Player: -11.7 Yikes, I don't want him in the first round, though my projections aren't fond of him, I know. His BA has been in decline for a while and his new ballpark and declining skills don't bode well for homers, especially since he was painfully consistent in that area over the course of last season. Recent performance is the best predictor for SB's and I don't see much happening there, though he was stealing a lot in August. Wright 93 R, 25 HR, 95 RBI, .300 Avg., 16 SB VOIFP: 34.4 Much better. I am assuming the kid can keep it up, but he's been nothing but sparkling so far and his minor league numbers don't suggest a collapse. Interestingly, he is not a panacea in any one category but he is above average everywhere and won't hurt any one category. Reyes 81 R, 6 HR, 45 RBI, .284 Avg., 56 SB VOIFP: 51.0 I wonder where his value comes from. The three players go in the opposite order you'd expect, but Reyes is arguably the most likely to be injured and it is relevant that all his value comes from stolen bases which are worth the most since you don't need that many to win the category and VOIFP assumes that they are harder to come by than other stats for the same reason. If you are banking on the health and production of, say, Ryan Freel and figure he can approach these numbers in the eighth round, then Reyes will obviously have less value for you. The same argument couldn't really have been applied to Wright. Nevertheless, at second base Reyes has considerable value and if the exercise teaches us anything, it is that though players come to be regarded as first or second round players by various publications and consistency in fantasy drafts, an objective look can show us something quite different. Thank you for reading. If you have any questions, comments, concerns, or suggestions, please do not hesitate to email me at bjoak@yahoo.com. |
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