2006 Season Preview: The Washington Nationals

2005 Regular Season Record: 81 - 81
5th in the NL East: 9 games behind the Atlanta Braves
Home Park: RFK Stadium (Extreme Pitcher's Haven)

New Faces:

C - Wiki Gonzalez (Mariners FA Signed Minor League Contract)
C - Mike DeFelice (Mets FA Signed ML Contract)
C - Alberto Castillo (Royals FA Signed ML Contract)
OF - Robert Fick (Padres FA Signed 1-Year $850 K Deal)
RP - Mike Stanton (Red Sox FA Signed 1-Year/$1 M Deal)
SP - Ramon Ortiz (Reds FA Signed 1-Year/$2.5 M Deal)
1B - Daryle Ward (Pirates FA Signed ML Deal)
RP - Valerio de los Santos (Marlins FA Signed ML Deal)
RP - Felix Rodriguez (Yankees FA Signed 1-Year/$600 K Deal)
2B - Marlon Anderson (Mets FA Signed 2-Year/$1.85 M Deal)
OF - Michael Tucker (Phillies FA Signed 1-Year/$800 K Deal)
IF - Damian Jackson (Padres FA Signed 1-Year/$700 K Deal)
1B - Matt LeCroy (Twins FA Signed 1-Year/$850 K Deal)
SP - Pedro Astacio (Padres FA Signed 1-Year/700 K Deal)
SS - Royce Clayton (Rockies FA Signed to ML Deal)
2B/LF - Alfonso Soriano (Traded from the Rangers)
SP - Brian Lawrence (Traded from the Padres)

Staying Put:

RP - Joey Eischen (Signed 1-Year/$1.1 M Deal)
SP - Tony Armas Jr. (Signed 1-Year/$2.1 M Extension)
C - Brian Schneider (Signed 4-Year/$16 M Deal)
1B - Nick Johnson (Signed 1-Year/$3.2 M Deal)
RP - Chard Cordero (Signed 1-Year/$525 K Deal)
SP - John Patterson (Signed 1-Year/$322 K Deal)
RP - Luis Ayala (Signed 2-Year/$2.2 M Deal)

Looking for Greener Pastures:

3B - Vinny Castilla (Traded to the Padres)
C - Cedric Brooks (Traded to the Padres)
OF - Brad Wilkerson (Traded to the Rangers)
OF - Termel Sledge (Traded to the Rangers)
SP - Armando Galarraga (Traded to the Rangers)
SP/RP - John Halama (Released)
RP - Antonio Osuna (Released)
SP - Esteban Loaiza (Signed with Athletics)
IF - Junior Spivey (Released)
CF - Preston Wilson (Signed with Astros)
RP - Hector Carrasco (Signed with Angels)

The Skinny:

He's really done it this time. Bobby Bowden has everyone in the Washington area and around the nation wondering just what the heck he's thinking. In the first year of their existence in the Nation's Capitol, the Nationals were a rousing success, drawing over two million baseball starved fans to watch a team that contended for most of the season in a competitive NL East. Bowden apparently decided the way to address this success would be to trade away one of the most popular men on the team for a brooding, streaky "superstar" who hadn't hit like one since 2003. Making matters worse, that superstar (Alfonso Soriano) is being asked to play out of position, and will be taking over for the man he was traded for. Just about everyone who has commented on this deal has remarked about the hilarious lack of logic. It looks as though Bowden was groping around in the dark with two hands and a flashlight trying to find a combination of deals that would turn his team into an offensive powerhouse in one off-season, and after pulling off move #1, he couldn't make anything else happen that would make his first deal logical in any way. Some of the other deals and free agent signings he came up with were similarly confusing. He decided it was important for instance to waste 2.5 million dollars on Ramon Ortiz when he's strapped for cash. Not to mention signing oft-injured Nick Johnson to a huge contract and then turning around and acquiring Matt LeCroy, whose only position is first, and whole now is essentially without a useful role. I'm left to wonder whether the "spaghetti against a wall" approach (throw a bunch of spaghetti at a wall and see if any sticks) will result in anything more than a directionless team that spends the season unable to cobble together any runs.

Strengths:

If there's one thing the Nationals have on their side, it's a solid bullpen. Even though they decided to hand Mike Stanton a spot in the pen at the cost of a million dollars worth of horrid pitching, the rest of the pen is shaping up to be among the best in the NL. If they have a lead in the sixth, it'll probably hold up most of the time. Their starting rotation is solid as well, although replacing Loaiza with either Ramon Ortiz or Ryan Drese or Pedro Astacio probably won't lead to improvement over last season. To aid in the prevention of runs, they fielded a pretty good team defense last year and most of it is returning although dropping from Wilkerson to Soriano in the outfield does hurt. They may be in a lot of close games again this year if their pitching holds up as expected.

Weaknesses:

Unless top prospect Ryan Zimmerman breaks through with a monster rookie season and they find some serious thunder from Vidro, Johnson, Guillen, and Soriano, all at the same time, the Nationals will field one of the worst team offenses in Major League Baseball even when adjusted to account for the park in which they'll play half of their games. Soriano attempting to lead off when he can't take pitches, draw walks, make contact, handle the bat, or run the bases smartly should provide hours of pain and misery for the new baseball fans in Washington. Don't be surprised if Soriano greets DC with a .240 batting average and severely reduced power.

Probable Starting Line-up:

LF - Alfonso Soriano
CF - Ryan Church/Marlon Byrd
2B - Jose Vidro
RF - Jose Guillen
1B - Nick Johnson
3B - Ryan Zimmerman
C - Brian Schneider
SS - Christian Guzman
Pitchers

Probable Bench:

1B - Matt LeCroy
IF - Marlon Anderson
OF - Marlon Byrd/Ryan Church
C - Robert Fick
OF - Michael Tucker

Starting Rotation:

Livan Hernandez
John Patterson
Brian Lawrence
Tony Armas Jr.
Pedro Astacio/Ryan Drese/Ramon Ortiz

Bullpen:

CL - Chad Cordero
SU - Gary Majewski
SU - Joey Eischen
MR - Luis Ayala
MR - Mike Stanton
MR - Jay Bergmann
LR - Jon Rauch

Prediction:

If the Nationals acquired Alfonso Soriano thinking he'd hit better than Brad Wilkerson, then they apparently aren't aware of the impact their home park has on hitters. If they acquired him thinking he'd have more drawing power than Wilky, they apparently aren't aware of how popular he was all last season when they were contending. If they thought they were getting a second baseman, they apparently forgot they already had a pretty darned good one. And if they thought they were getting a left fielder, they apparently didn't check with him first because he's not happy about the change. Not only is he going to be a moody, disruptive cancer in the clubhouse, but he's an offensive and defensive downgrade from Wilkerson in a park where good outfielders are an absolute requirement. That trade, along with the lack of any moves to truly replace Loaiza will have the Nats flopping around near the cellar along with the Marlins. I'll go out on a limb and say they don't even win 70 this year. I'm thinking a very flat, uninteresting 66-96 is in the cards.

Comments or questions? E-mail the author at m_souders@yahoo.com - Thanks for reading!