The National League central division continues to produce the best talent in the Senior Circuit. The Houston Astros and St. Louis Cardinals have represented their league in the last two World Series. With two good teams mixed the talented Cubs and up-and-coming Brewers, who should we expect to come out on top of this rough and tumble division? At Home Plate’s writers give you their answers.
| Daniel Paulling |
Bjoern Hartig |
Scott Barzilla |
Bryan Roth |
Jeff Reppert |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals | Cardinals |
| Brewers | Brewers | Astros | Brewers | Astros |
| Cubs | Astros | Cubs | Astros | Cubs |
| Astros | Cubs | Brewers | Cubs | Brewers |
| Pirates | Pirates | Pirates | Reds | Pirates |
| Reds | Reds | Reds | Pirates | Reds |
Daniel Paulling
St. Louis Cardinals – I might as well go with the homer pick here. The St. Louis Cardinals are just too deep and too strong to be beaten by a ballclub in the National League Central. Their rotation features three or four very solid starters, their bullpen has some nice arms, and then the lineup has Albert Pujols (‘nuff said). Throw in good defense behind the pitching staff, and it’s just too much.
Milwaukee Brewers – Everyone’s favorite sleeper team, the Milwaukee Brewers are quite the franchise. They’ve got legit power threats at first, second, short, left field, and right field. Combine that with one of the best starters in the game, Ben Sheets, along with a good rotation helped by Mike Maddux and Derrick Turnbow at the backend, and you’ve got the makings of a Wild Card team.
Chicago Cubs – We’ve all heard the refrain: “Prior and Wood, Wood and Prior.” Eventually, you’ve gotta throw your hands up and something to the extent that the entire franchise is cursed beyond hope. There’s no way these two will be healthy for an extended period of time. Aramis Ramirez and Derrek Lee will try their best, but it won’t be enough to help them break the Curse.
Houston Astros – Pretty harsh to put the defending National League champs fourth in their division, but it’s entirely possible. Andy Pettitte pitched over his head, and there’s no way anyone duplicates the season Roger Clemens had, even if Roger Clemens returns May 1. The rotation is already worse. Combine that with the fact that the offense is pretty much the same, and there’s no reason to expect an improvement; in fact, there will probably be a slight regression.
Pittsburgh Pirates – Jim Tracy brings respectability to the new Pirates’ ballclub. No offense to Lloyd McClendon, but Tracy has won at the Major League level. General Manager Dave Littlefield and Tracy get along, which should only help things. The Bucs have added a lot of players who avoid striking out, which is good; when the ball is put in play, good things can happen for the offensive ballclub. A promising, young rotation that should only get better (especially with the addition of lefty Tom Gorzelanny, a prospect) as the season goes along will bring much hope to the Steel City.
Cincinnati Reds – While the Reds have gotten a new owner, they are still making the same stupid moves. Trading away a potential superstar for a mediocre pitcher does not rank at the top of the Billy Beane Guide to Winning. Then the team won’t start second baseman Ryan Freel, despite his merits (yeah, he’s on my fantasy team). Plus, the farm system ranks one of the worst in baseball. This is a perfect storm for a last-place finish by the Reds, a sad outcome for some of the smartest fans in baseball.
Bjoern Hartig
St. Louis Cardinals - The Cardinals lost second baseman Mark Grudzielanek, left fielder Reggie Sanders and starter Matt Morris, but third baseman Scott Rolen is back and they still have Cy Young winner Chris Carpenter and MVP Albert Pujols on the team. If the Cardinals were playing in the AL Central, they might finish third, but in the NL counterpart, they are the only team with 90+ win potential. They won’t dominate the division any more, but they should still win it easily.
Milwaukee Brewers - The Brewers finally had their first non-losing season since 1992. This year, they are primed to take the next step. First Baseman Lyle Overbay was sent to Toronto to make room for top prospect Prince Fielder with fellow youngsters Richie Weeks and J.J. Hardy already on the team. With Leo Mazzone signing with the Orioles, Milwaukee arguably has the best pitching coach in the NL in Greg Maddux’ brother Mike. The Brewers still need ace Ben Sheets to stay healthy for the rest of the season to fight off the Astros and the Cubs, but I really expect them to surprise and take second place behind the Cardinals in 2006.
Houston Astros - Off-season acquisition Preston Wilson is not going to jump start their offense, which had trouble scoring runs all season last year. Houston’s pitching is still top notch with Roy Oswalt and Andy Pettitte and a pen anchored by Brad Lidge, but the loss of Roger Clemens hurts them (although not as much as some say, since Clemens only got 13 wins in 2005). If Clemens decides to return to Houston in May, the Astros might make another run, but the competition for the wild card as well as second place in the NL Central got tougher this winter, so without the Rocket, unless Oswalt and Pettitte both win 20+ games, the Astros’ playoff streak will end this year. And not only that, they will drop to third base and see the Brewers sneak by them.
Chicago Cubs - The fate of the Chicago Cubs rests on Mark Prior’s shoulder and apparently, that’s just too much weight. With Prior and Kerry Wood already on the disabled list, the Cubs season is starting with a bad omen. So with these two guys out, manager Dusty Baker will ride Carlos Zambrano even more, making him a good bet to hit the DL some time during the season, too. The bullpen should be better than last year as the front office added some decent (though overpriced) arms, but can Ryan Dempster really be successful as the closer for another year? The offense is highlighted by corner infielders Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez, although Lee is likely to regress a bit after his monster 2005. Behind these two, there is not much too like. Right fielder Jacque Jones can’t hit southpaws at all and even his production against right handers isn’t exactly impressive for a corner outfielder, the rest of the lineup is average at best. Without Prior and Wood, the Cubs won’t play a role in this division in 2006.
Pittsburgh Pirates - The Pirates have some nice young pitching in Oliver Perez and Zach Duke, a solid lineup headed by Jason Bay and a lot of young players trying to make an impression. Picking them to finish fifth in the division is a really conservative choice, because I think the Cubs and the Astros have high bust potential if one of their top starters goes down. The Pirates’ starting pitching certainly isn’t deep enough to make them think about a serious run, but they should be fun to watch at times and, if the old clubs in Chicago and Houston fell apart, could make a run at .500 and third place.
Cincinnati Reds - I really liked Bronson Arroyo at the back of the Red Sox’ rotation, but in Cincinnati, he might be considered the ace of the staff. That already explains why the Reds are not going to make much noise in the NL Central in 2006; their pitching is easily the worst in the division, if not the league. On the other side, their outfield with Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns and Ken Griffey Jr. is the best in the division and shortstop Felipe Lopez and third baseman Edwin Encarnacion make up a nice young right side of the infield, but the Reds won’t be able to outslug every other team.
Scott Barzilla
St. Louis Cardinals - The Cardinals will come back to the pack this year after two dominating seasons in a row. There is no better player in baseball right now than Albert Pujols and you always have to respect the team with the best player. The key to this season will be the play of Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds. If the two of them can play like stars (like they did in 2004) this will be an impossible team to beat. Mark Mulder and Chris Carpenter are good pitchers and Jason Isringhausen is a solid closer. The combination should be enough again this year.
Houston Astros - I was ready to pick the Cubs this year (and did on some other forums), but seeing Mark Prior and Kerry Wood go on the DL to start the season is a big reminder of why they won’t finish second. The Astros didn’t do a whole lot to improve their offense, but Preston Wilson was a decent addition. The Clemens factor is interesting and might play a huge role in the wild card race. The bullpen is the best in the league and Taylor Buchholz may surprise some people.
Chicago Cubs - I like what the Cubs did offensively. Juan Pierre is the top of the order guy they have been starving for. He gives Derrek Lee and Aramis Ramirez some traffic to clear off the bases. Jacque Jones is a lukewarm addition, but he should be a better defensive player than Jeromy Burnitz. Neifi Perez is a black hole at the plate, but he will be a better shortstop than Nomar. Yet, this team is still relying on Kerry Wood and Mark Prior to be lucky. Good luck.
Milwaukee Brewers - I like what the Brewers have done over the last couple of seasons. Quietly they have assembled a young everyday core that will lead them into serious contention soon. I’ve been teetering between the third and fourth slot on them. Prince Fielder and Rickie Weeks will be nice players, but their time will likely be 2007. Corey Koskie is a nice addition at third base while Geoff Jenkins and Carlos Lee anchor a sneaky lineup. The issues for the Brewers come on the mound. Doug Davis had a nice campaign, but Ben Sheets must stay healthy.
Pittsburgh Pirates - I know people who consider the Bucs the surprise team in the Central. I’ve heard crazier notions over the years. The club reacquired Joe Randa to man third, Sean Casey to take over at first, and Jeromy Burnitz to provide pop in the outfield. Yet, it is Jason Bay that is the real prize. Bay quietly put up tremendous numbers last season and signed a long-term contract that will keep him in Pittsburgh for awhile. Jack Wilson also will be there a long time. Like most of the teams in the division, pitching will be the key for the Bucs. Losing Kip Wells didn’t help their cause any.
Cincinnati Reds - This falls under the category of “someone must finish last”. The Reds have been mysteriously cash strapped, so they have huge holes, but they are working to fill those holes. Bronson Arroyo will help give the Reds some much needed innings in the rotation. He will join Dave Williams in a rotation that is experienced, but lackluster. It is the bullpen that will keep this team in the cellar. Yet, teams coming into to play the Reds need to pay attention. Their lineup is surprisingly strong with Ken Griffey Jr., Adam Dunn, Felipe Lopez, and Jason LaRue (when healthy). Those four will keep the Reds competitive.
Bryan Roth
St. Louis Cardinals (90-72) - Without Albert Pujols, this is a .500 team. Pujols accounted for a major league-leading 38 win shares in 2005, good for about 12.5 wins for the Cards. Chris Carpenter wasn’t too far behind in importance, ranking 14th out of all MLB pitchers with 18 win shares, or about 5.5 total wins. It’s easy to see that St. Louis is a two-trick pony. After a good spring, there’s really not much beyond Carpenter in a rotation full of otherwise average pitchers. The high-powered offense hides that effectively, but this will be a down year for St. Louis, especially with the improvements in the Brewers and to a lesser extent, the Cubs and Astros. Either way, the playing field is more level than ever in the NL Central and the Cardinals need a full season out of Scott Rolen to push to the top.
*Note: The next three teams are so evenly matched in my opinion, I’m giving a three-way tie for second place* Milwaukee Brewers (87-75) - Mike Maddox has done a great job with his pitching staff. Last year he helped to create the most unnoticed 200 K (Doug Davis) and 18-win (Chris Capuano) combination in the big leagues. David Bush had a great spring after coming over in the Lyle Overbay trade and if Ben Sheets can stay healthy for most of the season, the Brew Crew will actually have that season everyone expects them to. JJ hardy finally understood major league pitching the second half of 2005 and Rickie Weeks could be scary if he improves on his .239 average from last year. Along with Prince Fielder, this lineup has enough pop and speed to make a difference. This is a perfect example of a young team that could make a huge splash like the 2003 Marlins or flop and churn out a .500 season.
Houston Astros (87-75) - I know it sounds mean, but I'm really glad that Jeff Bagwell is done. He certainly deserves lots of respect from the organization, but it was past his time. Without Bagwell, Lance Berkman can finally go full-time at first, which means Willy Tavares is all set to play 2006 in center. Between Berkman, Jason Lane and Morgan Ensberg, there's enough power in the lineup to score enough runs to win. Beyond Roy Oswalt, there are too many questions. Andy Pettitte can be great, if healthy, but Houston will have to rely on the same teamwork and luck that got them into the playoffs last year. That, and Roger Clemens.
Chicago Cubs (87-75) - We all know how to judge this team. With a healthy Prior and Wood, they’re almost unstoppable. Without them, they can barely stay afloat. The addition of Juan Pierre will be felt, especially because he’s in a contract year and wants to make the most out of it. Matt Murton could be above-average in left field if he gets enough playing time, but who ever knows with Dusty Baker and his distaste for young players. The Cubs’ success is solely based on what happens with the pitching staff. Who knows, Rich Hill could actually harness his stuff and make people forget about the other two guys. But, if Chicago has to rely on just Greg Maddux and Carlos Zambrano, there’s going to be trouble in the Windy City.
Cincinnati Reds (80-82) - The Reds’ offense is incredible. Adam Dunn, Austin Kearns and Ken Griffey Jr. would be enough to get the team by, but just about everyone on this team can hit and hit well. Too bad Cincinnati has probably the worst rotation east of Tampa Bay. With Bronson Arroyo is your number one guy, you have trouble. The staff is full of fly-ball pitchers in a hitter’s park and there’s no hope in sight for the franchise. Everyone in the staff will be the undoing of this club in 2006.
Pittsburgh Pirates (80-82) - Jason Bay is a star among average talent. For that reason, the Pirates will have trouble scoring runs in 2006, but this will be much more productive than last season. While the young arms in the rotation continue to develop, the bats will be well ahead. The additions of Sean Casey, Joe Randa and Jeremy Burnitz will give everyone else in the lineup an easier time. Plus, the speed of center fielder Chris Duffy will give the team a base stealing threat. The Pirates are a few years away, but still making positive strides.
Jeff Reppert
St. Louis Cardinals – Two words: Albert Pujols. With the reigning MVP and a healthy Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds, the Cardinals will score some runs. Despite some turnover in the NL’s best bullpen in 2005, the Cardinals pitching staff (including a starting rotation that features the reigning NL Cy Young winner) is deep and durable. The Cardinals probably win the division in another landslide and make some waves in October.
Houston Astros – It’s hard to put a brand name on Astros baseball without knowing the future of Roger Clemens, but with Roy Oswalt, Andy Pettitte and Brad Lidge, Houston still maintains one of the top staffs in the league. Was 2005 Morgan Ensberg’s coming-out party, or just a career year? Anything the ‘Stros get from Clemens and Jeff Bagwell will be bonus enough, and Houston will still be in the Wild Card hunt the final week.
Chicago Cubs – Like with the uncertainty of Clemens’ return, the Cubs will need Mark Prior and Kerry Wood healthy for at least a portion of the season. Their offense should be adequate and their bullpen is much improved. Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Juan Pierre will have to carry the offensive load, but the starting rotation is full of question marks beyond Carlos Zambrano and Greg Maddux. If the Cubs get either Prior or Wood back, they’re in the conversation. Getting both back puts them in the hunt.Milwaukee Brewers – The Brewers have become the sexy sleeper pick among many of the pundits, but they’re not quite over the hump yet. Especially given the condition of ace Ben Sheets – if Sheets has a healthy and productive season, the Brew Crew probably climb on his back and makes a serious Wild Card run. Simply making a run is impressive enough – who would have thought we would be talking about Milwaukee as serious contenders two seasons ago? Too heavily relying on youth at this point – 2007 may be the Brewers year.
Pittsburgh Pirates – The Pirates revamped their lineup by adding Jeromy Burnitz, Joe Randa and Sean Casey, but obviously they’re not ready to compete yet. Zach Duke and Oliver Perez have the potential to dominate, and the bullpen won’t be as bad as some expect. Still, the Pirates won’t be able to prevent enough runs the three out of five days that Duke and Perez don’t pitch, and their lineup probably won’t be outscoring many division foes either.
Cincinnati Reds – With a lineup as potent as Cincinnati’s, it’s really tough to place them in the cellar. Ken Griffey Jr. and Adam Dunn feature the division’s most premier left handed sticks, complimented by righties Felipe Lopez and Austin Kearns. Ryan Freel wreaks absolute havoc on the bases and Edwin Encarnacion has potential. Unfortunately for Reds fans, their team simply cannot pitch. Final Score: Reds 7, Opponent 8. Get used to it, Cincy
Daniel is an AtHomePlate blogger; to see his article archive, click here.
Bjoern Hartig
is the Angels' Blogger
Scott Barzilla
is the author of “Checks and Imbalances,” “The
State of Baseball Management,” and is looking forward to
his release of “On the Outside Looking” at the end
of 2006.
Bryan Roth is the
Prospect Pulse Blogger
