2005 Predictions: The NL Central

Ray Flowers’ Picks

1. Cardinals- Reigning league champs, too much offense to hold down. A full year of health from Walker and Carpenter, and a return by Morris sooner than expected might make them even better.

2. Cubs- If Wood and Prior are out, so are the Cubs. If they rebound, the talent is there to make a run at erasing the “Bartman incident.”

3. Reds- Too many injuries to contend, not enough pitching. Could be great fun to watch with 4 OF capable of 30 HR.

4. Astros- Too much age, too many player loses…they could actually finish higher if Pettitte and Clemens pitch well, but with Kent/Beltran gone, and Berkman out for at least for a month, it doesn’t look likely.

5. Brewers- Finally moving in the right direction with young talent an a plan, the Brew Crew will be respectable this year as they wait for their young talent to arrive (Fielder/Weeks).

6. Pirates- Trading your best player (Kendall) isn’t usually a smart move. At this point they just seem to be treading water.

Laura Nist’s Picks

1. Cardinals - As long as they stay healthy, the Cardinals will win the division and quite possibly return to the World Series. Their starting pitching is outstanding, they have a proven closer and their offense with Pujols, Walker, Rolen and Edmonds may be the best in the NL.

2. Cubs – I don’t think that this will be the year that they break the curse. The Cubs will need everything to go their way in order to top the Cardinals; everyone needs to be healthy and in top form and they need to find a solid closer.

3. Astros – Losing Beltran and Kent was not a good thing for the Astros and even with a healthy Pettitte and dominating performances from Clemens and Oswalt I just don’t think that this team will be nearly as successful as last year.

4. Pirates – The Pirates are getting better and they have a lot of young talent but overall they do not have enough hitting or pitching to compete in this division.

5. Reds – This team does not impress me – there are a lot of question marks such as, will Ken Griffey Jr. finally be healthy? The pitching is also questionable and certainly will not strike fear into the opposition.

6. Brewers – The rotation is still pretty inexperienced and the line-up is less than formidable.

Jonathan Leshanski’s Picks

1. Cards - The NL’s best offense can get by without a dominating pitching staff behind them and only the Cubs could stand in their way - but that’s not likely.

2. Cubs - Pitching and Dusty Baker are old enemies and the guys feeling the pain are usually his young starters notably Kerry Wood and Mark Prior. While health is a concern so is the lack of a real closer. That cost the Cubs too many games last year, and history will repeat itself unless the starters stay unusually healthy,

3. Astros - Clemens can’t be as good as he was last year and Andy Pettitte is still a question mark, but that’s still pretty good. The offense minus Beltran, Kent and the injured Berkman will hold them down. It’s likely that the window of opportunity for the “killer B’s” has passed.

4. Pirates - Better offense, developing pitching and a team that is a lot of fun to watch, but not ready for prime time yet.

5. Reds - Hey guys... trade away some outfielders for some pitching!

6. Brewers - I like the direction and the addition of Carlos Lee, but the talk of trading away Ben Sheets would be a big step backwards.

Daniel Paulling’s Picks

1. Cardinals - The Red Birds have the offense, of course, to put them at the forefront of this division, but what about pitching? Of course! The former National League champions feature Mark Mulder at the front of Jason Marquis, Jeff Suppan, and Chris
Carpenter. They will be hard pressed in the fifth spot, but just until Matt Morris comes back from injury. They have it in the cards to win this division easily, probably by 5 games.

2. Cubs- I don't think Wood and/or Prior will be injured all year. I think the two youngsters will return to the rotation and be dominant. The offense figures to be very productive with Patterson, Ramirez, Lee, and Walker. The bullpen will cause them to lose to the Cardinals, however, and might cost them the Wild Card.

3. Astros - This is still a very good team, but injuries have already ended their chances of contention. The Astros have lost Lance Berkman until mid-season. Bagwell, Biggio, et al. do not have enough support to keep things going until then. The bullpen will be very thing and the rotation is questionable with Backe (look at that WHIP) and whoever the fifth starter turns out to be.

4. Reds - The Reds have brought in a few extra arms, but it won't be enough to put them into the top three. I expect plenty of high scoring games for the Reds with a home park conducive to home runs. The lineup should be built for it, the rotation for giving
up home runs. The bullpen depth might be questionable, but the back two pitchers should be great in Graves and Wagner.

5. Pirates - The Pirates feature two of the greatest young players in Jason Bay and Oliver Perez, but that's pretty much all you can get on the Bucs. The rotation will be filled with question marks like Mark Redman, Kip Wells, and worse. The bullpen with Jose Mesa will always be a cause for alarm, except with Brian Meadows and Solomon Torres setting up. The offense will be weak, especially with the loss of Jason Kendall, but the addition of Lawton gives them a
true leadoff hitter.

6. Brewers - This year the Brewers will win quite a few games, something around 75, and will be very close to the Pirates in terms of getting out of the cellar. They have Ben Sheets and Doug Davis at the top of the rotation, but after that question they have marks. The offense should be good with Carlos Lee, Geoff Jenkins, and Lyle Overbay. The bullpen is another reason for concern. This will be the best sixth place club in the majors, guaranteed.

Matthew Souders’ Picks

1. Cardinals (NL Central, 97-65) - Going from Edgar Renteria and Tony Womack in a career year to David Eckstein and Mark Grudzielanek is a huge set-back both offensively and defensively. Adding Mark Mulder isn’t as much of an upgrade to an average Cardinal rotation as one might prefer in an ace. But if Matt Morris remains healthy this year, the Cards should still do a solid job preventing runs and their usual fine job scoring them.

2. Cubs (85-77)- The Cubs will soon regret letting Matt Clement walk in free agency and failing to pursue Magglio Ordonez or Carlos Beltran. The rotation on paper looks excellent: Mark Prior, Kerry Wood, Carlos Zambrano, Greg Maddux, and Glendon Rusch are all very effective. But Wood and Prior are already hurting in spring training. Their lack of depth in the rotation is going to absolutely KILL them this year. They also have a pretty horrendous bullpen, solid but unspectacular team defense, and a line-up that’s now missing Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou. It looks like a regrouping year in Chi-town.

3. Astros (71-91)- This off-season has to be considered an unmitigated disaster. The Astros managed to overpay for a HOF veteran in his age 42 season (Roger Clemens), fail to sign their best player (Carlos Beltran), drop their third best starting pitcher (Wade Miller) for…no apparent reason, lose their team leader (Jeff Kent) to free agency, and acquire absolutely NOTHING to compensate for those losses. Oh and Lance Berkman required surgery and is out until at least late May. They’re relying an awful lot on youngsters (Jason Lane, Justin Burke, Carlos Hernandez), one-year wonders (Morgan Ensberg, Brandon Backe), and aging or injury prone veterans (Clemens, Andy Pettitte, Craig Biggio, Jeff Bagwell, Brad Ausmus). It’s gonna get UGLY at Minute Maid.

4. Pirates (70-92)- Anchored by Oliver Perez and a lot of other kids with plenty of potential and not much experience, the Pirates may improve some in 2005, but they’re a long way from being competitive.

5. Reds (80-82) - (67-95)- Adding Joe Randa and Eric Milton is simply not going to solve the massive problems in the Reds’ pitching staff or team defense. They’re still lousy.

6. Brewers (65-97)- We’ve got Ben Sheets, Carlos Lee and not much else to point to on this Brewers team. Making matters worse, the Brewers are looking into trading Sheets for yet more prospects.

Brandon Wilson’s Picks

1. Cardinals - The Cardinals should repeat, given something goes wrong with the Cubs (it always does). The rotation loses Woody Williams, but adds Mark Mulder (who despite the negative press following the 2nd half of last year, will have a good season) making it arguably the best five top to bottom in the league. The offense was never a question. David Eckstein may not be the greatest leadoff hitter, but can he be worse than Tony Womack?

2. Cubs - This team probably still has the most talent in the Central, although it is much closer now with the departures of Matt Clement, Sammy Sosa and Moises Alou. Nomar can help with the offense and if the arms of Wood and Prior stay healthy, they may not miss Clement. With health this team can win, but something is bound to go wrong.

3. Reds - The Reds have a potentially potent lineup with a Dunn, Griffey and Kearns outfield finally healthy (insert your own joke). Ok, even if one of them goes down, Wily Mo Pena can adequately fill in and they should score some runs. The pitching staff is a question, especially the rotation, but if Milton can finally make good on his promise and one of the young pitchers steps up, this team will be better than .500.

4. Astros - The pitching is not a question. Oswalt, Clemens and Pettitte match-up against anyone's top three and Brad Lidge may be recognized as the best closer by the end of the season. The lineup, on the other hand, is a mess. Biggio will leadoff and Bagwell will bat third at ages where they should be supporting cast. Either Jason Lane or Morgan Ensberg will bat cleanup (at least until Berkman returns). Yuck!

5. Brewers - The Brewers have built a team that could finish as high as third, but that is not Doug Melvin's goal. They will likely be continuing to build once it is clear they are out of the playoffs and will slide back in the wake of trading veterans. The only way that doesn't happen is if Capuano and Hendrickson take big steps forward and Sheets and Davis repeat last season's success.

6. Pirates - This is a bad team and Lloyd McClendon may be the guy that takes the fall for it (which may come by the end of May). They can avoid the National League cellar if Oliver Perez is joined in a good season by a couple of others out of Wells, Redman, and Fogg. The offense could really use another big bat, so the pitching will need to be even better for this team to approach .500.

Expert Predictions: The NL Central