2005 Predictions: The NL East

Ray Flowers' Picks

1. Atlanta Braves - Can’t bet against them after 13 in a row, though all this talk of them having their best rotation ever is crazy talk. No way that Hudson/Smoltz/Hampton can compare to Maddux/Glavine/Smoltz.

2. Florida Marlins - Delgado helps a lot, but the key might be the performance of Beckett and Burnett. If they win 20 games they are toast. If they win 35, then the playoffs might be a callin’.

3. NY Mets - Tempted to put the Mets in the spot above, but how many times have we thought that the Mets would be good to be utterly disappointed? Great show though with Beltran and Pedro.

4. Philadelphia Phillies- Rollins/Abreu/Thome lead a potent offense that could rise to the level of the elite if Burrell ever figures things out. If Padilla and Wolf are healthy, they could make a run at the Braves.

5. Washington Nationals- Out of that hell-hole in Montreal, but not out of the cellar. Might be a spoiler but nothing more.

Joseph Kirshenbaum’s Picks

1. Atlanta Braves - Is there anything more automatic?

2. NY Mets - Beltran and Pedro not enough to bring down the dynasty

3. Philadelphia Phillies - Great lineup, no pitching

4. Florida Marlins - The most overrated team in baseball

5. Washington Nationals - New city, new name, same results.

Jonathan Leshanski’s Picks

“One of baseball’s toughest divisions to pick, there are 4 excellent teams here”

1. Philadelphia Phillies - With the Bowa era at an end there is a good chance that this team will finally gel and put together a season with great offense and greatly underrated and now healthy pitching.

2. Florida Marlins - Great offense, talented pitching, but so many pitching injuries have plagued this team. It would help if Josh Beckett could pitch more than 24 games in a season.

3. New York Mets- The Mets made some outstanding moves in the off-season and might have the best overall rotation in the division. Might is the key word in that sentence. Health is a factor with Piazza, Cameron, Floyd, Reyes, Benson, Zambrano and Pedro otherwise I would have picked them higher.

4. Atlanta Braves - Pitching took a step up, offense took another hit. They won last year because of a big year from J.D. Drew and the fact that no one else in the division could get out of their mediocrity. That’s not the case this year, expecting a big fall as everyone else in the division has made big strides to get better.

5. Washington Nationals - Still the Expos in spirit and largely in roster but with new owners coming expect that to change.

Daniel Paulling’s Picks

1. Atlanta Braves - The Braves have lost many key players over the years, but manager Bobby Cox, pitching coach Leo Mazzone, and general manager John Schuerholz still are a part of the team. Add in a good offense with good pitching, and you get a good team. Also, history is on their side with 13 consecutive division titles, which should count for something.

2. Philadelphia Phillies - The change in manager will prove to be a good one. Burrell and Thome will start hitting; Wolf and Padilla will start dealing. Expect things to turn around in Philadelphia, not enough to pass the Braves, but enough to win a Wild Card.

3. New York Mets- The Mets have brought in the right pieces to contend for this year, but they just don't have enough to put it all together. This team will play spoiler to a few other clubs and will be very good themselves, upwards of 90 wins.

4. Florida Marlins - The Fighting' Fish will have either Beckett or Burnett face time with injury and the bullpen will show just how weak it really is. It's only a matter of time. The offense will mash, but the pitching will not produce. It's a bad thing when Ismael Valdez is guaranteed 25 starts on your team.

5. Washington Nationals - The Nats finally have a home and probably will be the best fifth place club. They can win upwards of 80, but their offense will hold them back. The pitching and defense will be good, but they won't hit to win games. Luis Ayala and Chad Cordero are going to be nasty, though.

Matt Souders’ Picks

1. Florida Marlins (NL East, 88-74) - The Marlins added Delgado and lost Pavano and Benitez this off-season At first glance you would expect a decline from this club, and indeed the back end of the Marlins’ rotation, and the front end of their bullpen have in fact been weakened, but there are other factors to consider as well. AJ Burnett looks to have a good chance to stay healthy all year. Josh Beckett will probably see more playing time in ’05 than he did in ’04. Dontrelle Willis is probably not as bad as he appeared last year and the Marlins have at least one more brilliant pitching prospect expected to contribute this season. They will benefit from a full season out of Paul LoDuca. And stepping in to replace Benitez is skilled set-up man Guillermo Mota. The Marlins will have a more balanced attack this season than they had in 2004, and it should propel them past a sputtering Braves franchise.

2. Atlanta Braves (WC, 87-75) - Here again…the experts disagree with me. The Braves feature what is supposedly a much improved pitching staff in 2005, but to be frank, other than the upgrade from Russ Ortiz to Tim Hudson, I don’t see much to celebrate in Atlanta. John Smoltz was beginning to struggle to keep up with the work involved with being a closer. Bringing him back to the rotation is going to prove to be disastrous for his career and for the Braves’ season. Expect Smoltz to either be back in the pen closing or on the DL by July. After that, the rotation is basically the same as last year’s rotation core, which doesn’t bode well for Georgians. The pen is now anchored by oft-injured Danny Kolb…a pitcher whose control is excellent but whose defense independent pitching looks a lot less impressive than his ERA. If the Braves don’t get world class pitching and stellar defense, an offense anchored by feeble minded Andruw Jones, slumping veteran Chipper Jones, and Johnny Estrada/Adam LaRoche/Raul Mondesi isn’t going to win many games.

3. Philadelphia Phillies (84-78) - This is essentially the same Phillies team that choked its way to another year of mediocrity. The differences this year are Jon Lieber, Kenny Lofton, and health. This means they have yet to address a team defense which hasn’t seen league average since 1980, or a bullpen with as many health concerns as my local VFW hall.

4. New York Mets (83-79) - Mets fans are feeling pretty bulky after managing to steal Pedro Martinez and Carlos Beltran (the top pitching and hitting free agents), but Beltran has made his living mashing away in hitters parks so expect some decline in his numbers this year. Pedro Martinez, meanwhile, is a ticking time bomb waiting to go off. His arm is likely to explode like a lighted fire cracker. Most red Sox fans will tell you they’re relieved to see him go before this happened in Boston. I don’t see the Mets being any more secure in this division than they were in 2001 after they added a bunch of veterans to a decaying team center.
5. Washington Nationals (70-92) - OK, yes the Nats will stink up RFK, but no I don’t consider them to be nearly as bad a team as most. They actually did a nice job strengthening their starting rotation, their team defense, and their everyday line-up this year If Jose Vidro and Nick Johnson can just stay healthy, they could surprise some people.

Brandon Wilson
“Top to bottom this is the best division in the National League and should be contested to the last month.”

1. Atlanta Braves- I picked the Braves to miss the playoffs last season and they won the division again. Bobby Cox will have to lose the division before I vote against him again. The lineup does not look as good on paper, but I expect improvement from Adam Laroche and Chipper Jones, not to mention that I am picking Andruw Jones to win the MVP. Toss in a side of John Smoltz plus Tim Hudson at the top of the rotation and that adds up to another division title.

2. Florida Marlins- This team improved its offense with Carlos Delgado, but did not adequately address the loss of Carl Pavano from the rotation. I just think Al Leiter is about out of gas. Combine that with the unproven Guillermo Mota as the closer and it will be just enough to keep them from winning the division title, but they should grab the wild card.

3. Philadelphia Phillies- The Phillies may be better just by the absence of Larry Bowa. The offense should be similar to last season (very good) with possible improvements from Lieberthal and a full season of Chase Utley. The rotation, on the other hand, still does not impress me, especially when compared to Atlanta and Florida. Jon Lieber is not an ace (though he was close to that good a few years ago) and Cory Lidle has always been inconsistent at best.

4. New York Mets- The Mets are an intriguing team this year, but several things will have to go right (or should I say Wright) for them to move up. Pedro needs to return to his Cy Young form, Kris Benson needs to live up to his potential and Kaz Ishii needs to throw strikes. On the offensive side Beltran needs to live up to his contract and Piazza needs to stay healthy. If all of that happens they could challenge for a playoff spot.

5. Washington Nationals - As good as the rest of the division is, there is little hope for the Nationals. Hernandez will anchor the rotation, but I expect him to slide back a bit after an excellent season last year. The rest of the rotation is a giant question mark. The signings of Vinny Castilla and Christian Guzman are a mystery and will do little to help the offense. Having said all that, they could still be better than last season and finish last.

Expert Predictions: The NL East March 28, 2005

Expert Predictions: The NL East
March 28, 2005