Expert Predictions: The NL East
April 2, 2006

For the previous century or so, the Atlanta Braves have owned the top spot in the National League. The Mets have totally rebuilt their team, while the Phillies have a lot of promise on their squad. Could this be the year someone unseats the Braves? Our writers have the answers.

Daniel Paulling
Atlanta Braves – It’s no surprise (I’m a Braves’ fan), so I have to pick them to repeat. Most prognosticators are saying that you shouldn’t pick against someone who has been this good for this long until someone else actually beats them. I hope that should be applied here. The Braves feature a good starting rotation at the top with John Smoltz and Tim Hudson, along with a decent offense. The bullpen can be the downfall, but the potential for several good arms out there is very good. I’m knocking on wood, however.

New York Mets – The Mets spent this offseason pumping up their team, but there are some major concerns. We all know that Carlos Beltran isn’t playing for a contract, having already gotten his money; Carlos Delgado missed serious time this spring due to elbow issues; and Pedro Martinez is an injury waiting to happen; surprisingly enough, it hasn’t been to his shoulder this spring. Combine that with a thin starting rotation and weak middle relief corps, and you have to question a few of the moves made by Omar Minaya.

Philadelphia Phillies – General Manager Pat Gillick hasn’t been any more successful than previous GM Ed Wade. Why? He still hasn’t gotten an ace pitcher, when it seems you need at least two power arms to win in the postseason. The bullpen looks very shaky, especially if Tom Gordon goes down with injury or shows ineffectiveness. However, the offense should bash enough to make this season look good.

Washington Nationals – Their luck has to run out sometime. The Nats were excellent in one-run games last year before ultimately falling apart down the stretch. The Jose Guillen injury is a major blow to the offense that only sports Alfonso Soriano and a few questions marks. The bullpen lost Luis Ayala to Tommy John surgery, and that has to be considered a major blow. Fans in the nation’s capital can only hope that Livan Hernandez and John Patterson can throw 450 amazing innings next year.

Florida Marlins – What a surprise, I’m picking the Florida Marlins to finish dead last. The franchise lost nearly every single decent player from its Major League roster, and now they’re stuck with a 105+ loss season. At least it’ll be nice to see Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera play a little bit. They’ll be helped by Mike Jacobs and Jeremy Hermida, but it’s going to be absolutely putrid next season in Miami.

Bjoern Hartig
New York Mets - Why did GM Minaya trade away Jae Seo and Kris Benson? Were Jorge Julio and Duaner Sanchez really worth it? If Seo and Benson were still on the team, I wouldn’t feel so bad about picking them to finish first. Now, a serious injury to Pedro or a breakdown of Glavine and their whole season is in jeopardy. On paper, the Mets have the best team, but they are not that deep as I’d like them to be. Still, the other contenders have issues, too. And the additions of Delgado and Wagner turn the Mets into the only team in the division that could win 90+ games if all things go according to plan.

Philadelphia Phillies - The Phillies were close last year, but they didn’t do much to improve in the off-season. Replacing Wagner with Gordon is a huge downgrade and the front office also failed to get a top starter, which Ryan Franklin sure isn’t. Brett Myers might become an ace, but the rest of the rotation is solid, but unspectacular. The offense should be ok and it might even improve a bit now that the Phillies finally get some production out of centerfield. Of the top three teams in the division, the Phillies are the team with the least upside and downside. I see them between 85 and 90 wins again. While that might be enough to finally overtake the Braves, it’s not enough to win the division unless someone important gets hurt in New York.

Atlanta Braves - The Braves have won 101 games in 2002 and 2003, 96 in 2004 and just 90 games last year. So there is a trend. In the off-season, they lost Furcal, Franco and Farnsworth. Chris Reitsma, who blew 9 of 24 saves chances last year, is the designated closer. Worst of all, Leo Mazzone won’t work his magic any more for the Braves. How can they win 90+ games again? I’m afraid, they can’t and this year, 88 wins won’t be enough like they were in 2001. Smoltz and Hudson might be the best 1-2 punch in the division, but without Mazzone, the other starters and relievers might play as uninspiring as they look on paper. I see the Braves win 85 games and drop from first to third in 2006 (only to rise from the ashes in 2007!?).

Washington Nationals - Stuck in nowhere land, the Nationals are a save bet to finish forth. They didn’t improve much in the off-season, if at all. They made one excellent trade when they dealt Vinny Castilla to San Diego for Brian Lawrence, but followed it with a highly questionable one when they acquired Alfonso Soriano for Brad Wilkerson, Termel Sledge and Armando Galarraga. The Nationals have some average pitchers who will look relatively good pitching half their games in RFK Stadium, but the starters are not good enough to carry the team far. Neither are the hitters. Jose Guillen, Soriano and Nick Johnson are all fine players. But Guillen is a clubhouse incident waiting to happen, Soriano has much less value in left field and Johnson should hit for more power as a first baseman. The most exciting thing for the National fans might be watching 3B Ryan Zimmerman get a long look at the majors.

Florida Marlins - The Jeffrey-Loria-firesale turned the Marlins from contenders into a Triple AAA club. A very talented Triple AAA club, but still Triple AAA. Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera are the only proven producers on this team. They are superstars, but even they cannot work wonders with the help they are going to get. Don’t get me wrong, I like Jeremy Hermida and, although I think he’s overrated, Hanley Ramirez. And the Marlins have a lot of talent in the minors to be really good (and cheap) in maybe two or three years. But in 2006, they are going to stink. Other than Cabrera, there may be no player in the starting lineup with more than 123 major league at-bats. Except for Willis, who struggled at the WBC, the rotation is not exactly scary, thought it has some potential. Still, while some people see the Marlins win 70 games and some even have them in front of the Nationals, I predict a 100 loss season.

Scott Barzilla
Atlanta Braves - I’ve picked against the Braves too often to do it again. Yes, they have problems in the bullpen and their rotation isn’t as strong as it used to be, but they still have a good lineup and they always find good young players to fill holes. The keys to the season will be finding a closer, ironing out the bottom of the rotation, and seeing young players like Dan McCann and Jeff Francoeur come through.

Philadelphia Phillies - The Mets are the darlings of the National League, but they also perennially disappoint. The Phillies have nice young players in Ryan Howard, Chase Utley, and Aaron Rowand. Rowand in particular was a nice find because he will shore up the defense in centerfield. Losing Billy Wagner was tough, but Pat Gillick managed to bring in Tom Gordon and Arthur Rhodes through free agency and trade. It won’t be enough to win the division, but it should be enough to win the wild card.

New York Mets - The Mets always make a big splash and this off-season was no different. Carlos Delgado, Billy Wagner, and Paul LoDuca were brought into the fold. On paper this team looks unbeatable, but there are already chinks in the armor. Pedro Martinez will not be ready by Opening Day and Tom Glavine might as well change his name to Methuselah. The key will be health as it always has been for the Mets.

Washington Nationals - We should congratulate Jim Bowden for being the idiot of the year. Alfonso Soriano didn’t want to play in the outfield and he’s always made that abundantly clear. Why trade your best all-around player and another outfielder for him? As usual, the Nationals will struggle at the plate. Moreover, this is a franchise that’s still in limbo years after MLB took them over. Shame on Bud Selig for delaying the process of giving this team legitimate ownership.

Florida Marlins - Who wouldn’t trade the Marlins last decade for their own? They’ve won two World Series titles which is more than every team except the Yankees. Unfortunately, they’ve also gone through two painful salary dumps. This off-season’s salary dump makes the one from 1998 look like child’s play. Dontrelle Willis and Miguel Cabrera will keep this team from losing 120 games. 110 losses might be a closer bet.

Bryan Roth
New York Mets (90-72) - I have a feeling this is going to come back and bite me in the ass, but this has to be the year someone else wins the NL East. I mean, the law of averages has to count for something, right? GM Omar Minaya has done too much to have this team finish second. Carlos Delgado will finally give the Mets a first baseman who can hit and Paul Lo Duca will be good for the first half, like he always is. Of course, if Pedro falters, this is going to be an 80-win team. I really feel that the pitching must catch up to the hitting or this season will be a failure. On the bright side, a much improved bullpen (minus Braden Looper) won’t be blowing what seemed like every other game. There’s too much potential in this team for them not to take first.

Atlanta Braves (88-74) - This streak has to stop, it’s bad for competition. Without Leo Mazzone and a team doing more growing up than succeeding, the Braves are due for a drop in the standings. This is a very solid team, but other than Andruw Jones, no one really sticks out. The pitching staff will keep the games close enough for the offense to win, but there’s just no one on this team that really blows me away. Jones’ explosion last year was something that everyone was waiting for, but a .263 average to go with 50+ home runs isn’t that great. He won’t be able to carry this team all by himself. If the sophomore slump is true, then just about the whole team is going to be a letdown.

Philadelphia Phillies (82-80) - This is a team with a tremendous offense in a great hitter’s ballpark. Unfortunately, the Phillies also have to pitch. Beyond Brett Myers, there really isn’t much. If GM Pat Gillick doesn’t think the Phils have a chance, then why should I? I fully expect solid numbers from around the diamond, but I’m not buying into Ryan Howard just yet. He’s got lots of power, but one thing I’ve learned is never to trust spring training power stats. If he can keep up his current pace for the first few weeks of the season, then I’ll be a believer. Other than Jimmy Rollins attempt at the hitting streak record, there’s not going to be much worth watching in Philly in 2006.

Washington Nationals (78-84) - Jim Bowden is the worst general manager in baseball. What a shame the Nats have to have him at the head of this franchise. With just about anyone else, I feel like this could be a team on the rise. I’m sorry, but no major league team should be starting Brandon Watson in center and the ageless Michael Tucker in right. Don’t forget Royce Clayton at shortstop! At RFK Stadium this pitching staff will be decent, but the loss of Louis Ayala will be felt. Don’t expect this team to be cracking the front pages in the nation’s capital any time soon.

Florida Marlins (?-forever) - The Marlins get this spot by default as it’s anyone’s guess at just how many games they’ll lose this year. They could very well lose 120. This is a Triple-A team playing major league baseball and there’s no other way to put it. When Lenny Harris gets cut by Florida, you know something’s amiss. Nonetheless, whenever the Marlins move out of Florida, this team will be good. There is more than enough pitching between the majors and minor league teams and enough young bats to make this team a potential contender in 2008.

Daniel is an AtHomePlate blogger; to see his article archive, click here.

Bjoern Hartig is the Angels' Blogger

Scott Barzilla is the author of “Checks and Imbalances,” “The State of Baseball Management,” and is looking forward to his release of “On the Outside Looking” at the end of 2006.

Bryan Roth is the Prospect Pulse Blogger