Expert Predictions: The NL West

Widely considered the weakest division in all of baseball, the NL West sure has a chance to be an amazing race. Teams like the Dodgers, Giants, and Padres are very close to each other in talent, while the Diamondbacks are up and coming, with the Rockies’ Generation R not too far behind. What’s the order for the finish of these teams? Read on for AHP’s answers.

Daniel Paulling

Los Angeles Dodgers
For the past two years, a Dodger player going on the DL has been as set in stone as death and taxes. This year has been no exception. Closer Eric Gagne is out for two months, first baseman Nomar Garciaparra is always there, and center fielder Kenny Lofton is out. When healthy, they win this division by a lot. Injuries will just make this race interesting.

San Francisco Giants
Barry Bonds is looking pretty old and is swinging helplessly at those down and away pitches, but Jason Schmidt and Matt Morris still are capable of leading a pitching staff. There are some nice other pieces on offense, but not enough to compete with the Dodgers. The only way they can beat their rivals is for Barry Bonds to hit 74 homers and Armando Benitez to come back from bursitis quickly and lengthen out that bullpen.

Arizona Diamondbacks
They’ve got some great young players over there in Phoenix. Conor Jackson is stepping in as the everyday first baseman and Chad Tracy has cemented his spot at third. Combine that with the veteran bats of Shawn Green and Luis Gonzalez, and the middle of the lineup is looking decent. Behind Brandon Webb, however, the rotation offers diddly squat. The bullpen is more of the same. I bet they’re just counting the days until Dustin Nippert is ready.

San Diego Padres
A fall to fourth place for last year’s division winner is a big one. Their offense doesn’t have any bats that really scare you other than Brian Giles, and even he is getting up there in years. Combine that with a solid, but not great, starting rotation after Jake Peavy and a thinned bullpen (they did lose Chris Hammond and Akinori Otsuka, after all) and you’ve got a recipe for disaster.

Colorado Rockies
Generation R hasn’t quite come to fruition yet. However, when Ian Stewart is ready for the Show, just you wait and see. The Rockies have the bats to compete, and if their arms keep developing, they could be a surprise team in 2007 or 2008, especially in this weak division. All Dan O’Dowd has to do is pray that the humidor keeps working.

Bjoern Hartig

Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers were hit hard by injuries last year and this season starts no differently with Nomar Garciaparra, Kenny Lofton and Eric Gagne already on the DL. But after a rather active off-season and with a loaded farm system, LA is better prepared to overcome the inevitable losses during a long season in 2006. The signing of former batting title winner Bill Mueller addressed a major weakness at third base and now the lineup has no real holes any more, although the bench doesn’t provide much pop right now, which is why waiving first baseman Hee-Seop Choi probably wasn’t the best move. The Dodgers also have no real ace, even though Brad Penny could evolve into one if he continues to pitch like he did in his first two starts. But their starting pitching is solid from #1 to #5 anyway, and the bullpen won’t totally fall apart even without Gagne. In a weak division, the Dodgers don’t need to be more than solid to end up on top.

San Diego Padres
The team that won the division with only 82 wins last year made some questionable moves during this winter. Dealing away 2B Mark Loretta for C Doug Mirabelli and then signing Mike Piazza gives me the impression that this team doesn’t have a plan; so does sending away Brian Lawrence to get 3B Vinny Castilla. The front office was able to bring back Brian Giles and closer Trevor Hoffman, but both are not getting younger. The rotation is headed by Jake Peavy, who struck out 216 batters last year, but except for Chris Young, who is still relatively young, I don’t like it too much. On paper, the Padres don’t look much weaker than the Dodgers, if at all. But an injury to Peavy and their season is essentially over. Even if Peavy stays healthy, age and lack of quality depth will hurt them.

Arizona Diamondbacks
The Diamondbacks rebounded nicely last year after a disastrous 2004. But did they get better this winter? Troy Glaus and his 37 homers will be missed and even though Javier Vazquez wasn’t great last year, can Orlando Hernandez replace him? At least 2B Orlando Hudson is a good addition, and Brandon Webb’s ERA will look even better because of him. The outfield of Luis Gonzales, Shawn Green and Eric Byrnes is a good one, but the Diamondbacks are probably better off if they trade some of these guys when their value is high, because even if they are still in the race in July, they most likely are not good enough to win the division anyway this year, although they might reach .500 again.

San Francisco Giants
A few days ago, the Giants sent out the oldest outfield ever to take the field: Barry Bonds (41), Steve Finley (41) and Moises Alou (39). Shortstop Omar Vizquel will turn 40 in a few days, too. That can’t be good. If all Giants played like they did during the primes, they would win this division in a landslide. Of course, that’s won’t happen, but the Giants still have an outside shot at the division crown if Barry Bonds plays in more than 140 games, if he hits like he has two years ago, and if Jason Schmidt finds his magic again. These are three big IFs and even that might not be enough because the starters behind Matt Morris (Can you name one?) probably aren’t good enough to carry the Giants far this year.

Colorado Rockies
If this team played anywhere else, I’d say their pitching is decent and the lineup would be unspectacular on paper. But at the end of this season, the stats will say the very opposite. The Rockies will score a lot of runs at home and allow even more. The extreme environment in Coors Field will drain the self-confidence out of their pitchers and make the hitters slump on the road. The Rockies might surprise or they might disappoint, even by their standards, who knows? Predicting them is so difficult and by picking them to finish last I take the safe route.

Scott Barzilla

San Diego Padres
What a difference a couple of weeks make. I never would have given the Padres much of a look until Eric Gagne went down for two months. It seems the NL West is more of a game of survival than excellence. I really like the Curt Young deal and if Chan Ho Park can survive in any park it has to be this one. Yet, it is Jake Peavy that makes this pitching staff go. Mike Piazza and Mike Cameron add to a lineup that was lackluster a year ago. If they can remain healthy (Cameron is already hurt), they should be enough to lead the Padres to another division crown.

Arizona Diamondbacks
I know I must be nuts, but they are the only team in this division young enough to avoid the injury bug. I love the Orlando Hudson acquisition and Eric Byrnes gives them a decent centerfielder as well. Last season, the Diamondbacks were a mess up the middle. Now, they have Hudson, Byrnes, Johnny Estrada, and Craig Counsell. Luis Gonzalez, Shawn Green, and Chad Tracy are decent on the corners, but they can’t generate enough offense on their own. The key will be at first base where Conor Jackson and Tony Clark share the position for now. Look for Jackson to be the guy as the season moves on.

Los Angeles Dodgers
This is a team Methuselah could be proud of. On paper they look like the best team in the division. Unfortunately, that paper isn’t the lineup card. Nomar Garciaparra, Kenny Lofton, and Eric Gagne are already on the disabled list. If history is any indication, J.D. Drew is not that far behind. They still have talent in Rafael Furcal, Jeff Kent, and Bill Mueller. The pitching staff has some good arms in it, but the injuries are going to kill this team again.

San Francisco Giants
This is a team that Methuselah’s older brother would love. Ray Durham, Omar Vizquel, Mike Matheny, Barry Bonds, and Moises Alou are a combined 183. I’m not great at math, but it looks like the average age between those five is about 37. That’s obviously not good. Then again, if they want to bring someone off the bench they can bring the 41 year old Steve Finley into the game. Even relatively young players like Armando Benitez can’t seem to remain healthy. It has often been said this team will go as far as Barry Bonds takes them. He will turn 42 in July and supposedly his body has been broken down by steroids.

Colorado Rockies
Dan O’Dowd is the luckiest man in America. He works in a great city, makes high six figures, and he doesn’t even have to be successful at what he does. Todd Helton is a nice piece to build around and Matt Holliday looks like a decent player as well. They have some other decent young players like Clint Barmes, Garrett Atkins, and Luis Gonzalez. They have some decent pitchers as well (Jeff Francis, Jason Jennings, and Aaron Cook). The problem is that a team of only decent players won’t make it very far. This is especially true when only two-thirds of the team is decent.

Bryan Roth

San Francisco Giants (88-74)
In a division of futility, the Giants are the best of the worst. Everyone's old and besides Barry Bonds, there's really little to no offensive talent. If Bonds gets 400 to 450 at-bats, he's going to get San Fran eight to 10 wins. If Jason Schmidt can bounce back from 2005, he'll team with Matt Morris to make one of the best 1-2 combos the Giants have had in years. Noah Lowry and Matt Cain are both average at worst and could easily win 12-15 games each.

San Diego Padres (81-81)
Boy did that Adam Eaton trade work out for San Diego. Eaton is injured and even though Chris Young had a rough spring, he should be better than Eaton was in 2005. The loss of Brian Lawrence hurts, but if this team was good enough to win the division last year, they should be good enough to stay around 80-85 wins in 2006 with the additions of Josh Barfield, Adrian Gonzalez, Mike Piazza and eventually Mike Cameron.

Los Angeles Dodgers (80-82)
The infield is much improved offensively, but I'm just not sold on what the outfield can produce. Too much rests on what injury-prone players like JD Drew and Nomar Garciaparra can do and we've already seen what happened with the latter. Not only that, but the starting rotation is full of middle-of-the-rotation starters and Eric Gagne is done for the year. This is a team that has promise, but won't amount to much.

Arizona Diamondbacks (75-87)
Stephen Drew, Justin Upton, Chris Young and Carlos Quinton are all going to make this team great in a year or two. Too bad they just can't make a splash this season. Much like the other teams in the NL West, there's not much after number one starter Brandon Webb and in a hitter's park like Bank One Ballpark, the D-Backs can get all the help they can get.

Colorado Rockies (72-90)
This whole "Generation R" is coming along slowly. The gimmick to advertise their young players isn't really drawing many rave reviews from fans or fellow baseball players. They've got a decent team right now, but not anything to get excited about. With no pitching now or on the way, the Rock Pile is a long way from being a winner.

Daniel is an AtHomePlate blogger; to see his article archive, click here.

Bjoern Hartig is the Angels' Blogger

Scott Barzilla is the author of “Checks and Imbalances,” “The State of Baseball Management,” and is looking forward to his release of “On the Outside Looking” at the end of 2006.

Bryan Roth is the Prospect Pulse Blogger

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