2006 Season Preview: The San Diego Padres

by Jeff Curry
March 31, 2006


2005 Regular Season Record: 82-80
Finished 1st in the NL West: 5 games ahead of the Diamondbacks
Home Park: Petco Park


New Faces:
Mark Bellhorn INF (Free Agency)
Geoff Blum INF (Free Agency)
Dewon Brazelton RHP (Acquired from Devil Rays)
Doug Brocail RHP (Free Agency)
Mike Cameron OF (Acquired from Mets)
Vinny Castilla 3B (Acquired from Nationals)
Alan Embree LHP (Free Agency)
Shawn Estes LHP (Free Agency)
Adrian Gonzalez 1B (Acquired from Rangers)
Doug Mirabelli C (Acquired from Red Sox)
Mike Piazza C (Free Agency)
Terrmel Sledge OF (Acquired from Rangers)
Chris Young RHP (Acquired from Rangers)
Walter Young 1B (Claimed off waivers)

Looking for Greener Pastures Elsewhere:
Sean Burroughs 3B (Traded to Devil Rays)
Adam Eaton RHP (Traded to Rangers)
Robert Fick 1B (Signed with Nationals)
Chris Hammond RHP (Signed with Reds)
Ramon Hernandez C (Signed with Orioles)
Damian Jackson INF (Signed with Nationals)
Brian Lawrence RHP (Traded to Nationals)
Mark Loretta 2B (Traded to Red Sox)
Xavier Nady OF (Traded to Mets)
Miguel Olivio C (Signed with Marlins)
Akinori Otsuka RHP (Traded to Rangers)
Joe Randa 3B (Signed with Pirates)
Rudy Seanez RHP (Signed with Red Sox)
Mark Sweeney 1B/OF (Signed with Giants)

The Skinny: Add in the 3 game sweep by the St. Louis Cardinals in the playoffs and this division winner finished 2005 with a sub-.500 record. Not the stuff of legend in San Diego. Still, being able to hang any banner at the end of the season is an accomplishment. The Padres responded to this measure of success by completely overhauling their roster for the 2006 season. The lineup should have some more punch to it with the acquisition of aging right handed power hitters Mike Cameron, Mike Piazza, and Vinny Castilla. The pitching staff didn’t fare quite as well losing steady contributors Adam Eaton and Brian Lawrence while second year pitcher Chris Young was the only real help provided to staff ace Jake Peavy.

Prospect Josh Barfield has been the talk of training camp and has won the starting second base job from Mark Bellhorn. The spot opened up after the Padres shipped Mark Loretta and his contract to the Red Sox for backup backstop Doug Mirabelli and 20 pounds of meat. Mirabelli became the starter for about 10 minutes until Mike Piazza was brought in to fill in spot vacated by Ramon Hernandez whom San Diego declined to even offer a contract. The result of all of these offseason moves is even more question marks than the 2005 club.

Ryan Klesko led the team with 18 homers last year and enters the last year of his contract. If he leads the team again this year, it will mean that Cameron, Piazza, and Castilla didn’t live up to expectations. It will also mean that third year starting shortstop Khalil Greene wasn’t able to stay healthy for a full season. While the lineup should offer more power this year, the team that finished 12th in the NL in batting average will see that average drop accompanied by a jump in strikeouts. The same guys that are counted on to hit for power are going to kill rallies with their poor averages (Piazza @ 251, Castilla @ 253) and strikeout rates (Cameron 1 K every 3.6 ABs). The return of Brian Giles is a big plus. While his 301 average is the only number that stands out, his ability to contribute in all categories makes him indispensable to this club.

An early shoulder injury to Klesko may get Adrian Gonzalez a starting spot sooner than expected. Once blocked by Mark Teixeira in Texas, this prospect may not give up that spot easily. He joins Jake Peavy, Josh Barfield, and Khalil Greene as the future of the franchise. Barfield and Greene could be turning double plays in San Diego for the next decade.

Chris Young isn’t the only new starter for the Padres in 2006. While Young is a bit of a question mark after a wearing down in the second half of ’05, the rest of the staff is even less reliable. Shawn Estes joins the starting rotation as the lone left hander so his spot is probably safe as long as he can recover from the ankle injury that cut short his 2005 season. Chan Ho Park, Woody Williams, and newcomer and former first round pick Dewon Brazelton will battle it out for the remaining two spots in the rotation. Although Park pitched 10 innings without giving up an earned run for Korea in the World Baseball Classic, he threatens to again underplay his huge contract after posting a 9.39 ERA in spring training with the Padres. Given the $15 million Park is due to make this year, he’ll likely be in the rotation which leaves Williams and Brazelton. After a sharp spring Brazelton looks like the one more likely to stick, pushing the 39 year old Williams to relief.

Strengths: Number one starter. For a team that finished in first place last season, this is a team of surprisingly few strengths. The Padres feature a solid lineup but do not excel in any one area. The Padres season starts and ends with Jake Peavy. The 24-year old ace has the power (NL leading 216 K’s) and control (2.88 ERA / 1.08 WHIP) to keep the keep the team in contention in a weak division.

Weaknesses: Health and Middle Relief. The lineup and staff is full of players with a long injury history. Odds are that Dave Roberts, Mike Cameron, Mike Piazza, Vinny Castilla, Ryan Klesko, Shawn Estes, and Woody Williams all spend some time on the DL this season. Klesko may already be headed there with shoulder trouble. With the departure of Akinori Otsuka, Rudy Seanez and Chris Hammond, much of the relief corps that helped the Padres finish second in the NL in relief ERA is gone. Left to fill that void are Scott Linebrink, Clay Hensley, and the loser of the battle for the 5th starter spot.

Potential Lineup
Dave Roberts LF
Mike Cameron CF
Brian Giles RF
Mike Piazza C
Ryan Klesko 1B
Vinny Castilla 3B
Josh Barfield 2B
Khalil Greene SS
Rotation
Jake Peavy - RHP
Chris Young - RHP
Shawn Estes - LHP
Chan Ho Park - RHP
Dewon Brazelton - RHP
Trevor Hoffman - Closer RHP

Keys to Success: A healthy year would be a big step toward a successful season. Since that isn’t going to happen, the Padres will need some of their younger players to step up and carry the team. A young nucleus of Khalil Greene, Josh Barfield, and Adrian Gonzalez has the ability to do it, now they need to perform on the big league stage. Jake Peavy will have to challenge for the Cy Young and carry the rest of the staff on his back.

Prediction: The good news is that NL West should be wide open again in 2006. The bad news is that a healthy year out of the Giants and Dodgers will leave the Padres in third place. Maybe a Cy Young contender and more home runs will put more fans in the seats but they won’t bring a pennant. The Padres will be hard pressed to match last season’s win total. Expect a record of 77-85.


 

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