We’ve seen the surprises and the really rottens, but now it’s time for the really good teams. In this case, I limited it to the teams currently at better than ten games over .500. This limited the field to three teams and one of them is a team we’ve already looked at. Of course, we looked at the Tigers in relationship to the other surprise teams. Since then, they have continue to win.
The other two teams (the Cardinals and White Sox) aren’t much of a surprise at all. The Cardinals are on pace to win 100 or more games for the third consecutive season while the White Sox look even better than they did last year. Unfortunately for the Cardinals, they’ve run into two buzz-saws the last two seasons in the Red Sox and Astros. They might be one of the best dynasties in history if they can claim a championship.
Tigers
Won-Loss Record: 30-14Pythagorean W-L: 29-15
Difference: +1
One Run W-L: 8-4
Runs Scored: 218 (15th)
Runs Allowed: 149 (1st)
Defensive Efficiency: 0.738 (2nd)
The Tigers are a shade from having the best fielding and pitching in baseball. In many ways, they remind people a lot of last season’s White Sox. The White Sox offense could charitably be called average, but their starting pitching overwhelmed the American League all season. The addition of Kenny Rogers has certainly been key, but the development of Mike Maroth, Jeremy Bonderman, and Justin Verlander is the key. It’s good to see good old-fashioned player development leading a team to the top.
Still, the mediocre offense will catch up with the Tigers before the season ends. Kenny Rogers is a notorious first half pitcher and the young arms (particularly Verlander) could falter as they go through the league a second or third time. It’s not as if they will fall off the map. They will probably win around 90 games, but that might not be good enough in the American League Central.
White Sox
Won-Loss Record: 29-15Pythagorean W-L: 27-17
Difference: +2
One Run W-L: 6-5
Runs Scored: 248 (2nd)
Runs Allowed: 194 (5th)
Defensive Efficiency: 0.720 (6th)
The White Sox have experience on their side, but the real key this season has been the addition of Jim Thome that has improved the offense. Thome coupled with Paul Konerko and Jermaine Dye give the White Sox a dynamic attack they didn’t have a year ago. Of course, adding Javier Vazquez to an already strong rotation helped as well. Being in the top ten in all three important categories bodes well for the future of the White Sox.
However, what impresses me the most is their 6-5 record in one run games. No, a .500 record in one run games is not impressive in to itself, but it does show that they have won their games legitimately and not because of luck. The Tigers .667 mark indicates they will lose some games as the year goes by in that category. The White Sox are what they are.
Cardinals
Won-Loss Record: 29-16Pythagorean W-L: 28-17
Difference: +1
One Run W-L: 7-7
Runs Scored: 226 (12th)
Runs Allowed: 174 (2nd)
Defensive Efficiency: 0.739 (1st)
Like the White Sox, the Cardinals are good in both pitching and defense, so they should do well for the rest of the year. To many, the Cardinals are about Albert Pujols, Jim Edmonds, and Scott Rolen, but they are really about a solid starting rotation and good all around fielding team. Chris Carpenter, Mark Mulder, and Jeff Suppan are durable pitchers, and Jason Isringhausen is reliable as a closer. However, not is all good in St. Louis.
Jim Edmonds is on his last legs and Rolen is coming off of an injury, but Pujols should be enough for the offense. Yet, after the first three starters (plus Jason Marquis) it gets pretty bumpy. Also, the rest of the bullpen isn’t as reliable as it used to be, but the Cardinals are in the same division as the lowly Pirates and Cubs. Add in six freebee games against the Royals and you have 100 wins pretty easy.
Scott Barzilla is the author of “Checks and Imbalances,” “The State of Baseball Management,” and is looking forward to his release of “On the Outside Looking” at the end of 2006.
