I usually like to wait until the quarter pole to look at how players and teams are doing. Every year there are surprise teams at the quarter pole. This time we are looking at pleasant surprises. Every year, there are one or two teams that hold it together for the whole season, but most of the teams fade from this point forward. I might be overlooking a team or two, but three teams have surprised most so far: the Rockies, Tigers, and Reds.
What we will do here is look at what each team is doing and their chances for sustaining their level of play. For each team we will look at their Pythagorean record, record in one run games, and some other key categories that some people overlook. We will begin our journey in alphabetical order by looking at the Cincinnati Reds.
The Reds
Won-Loss: 23-14 (2nd in NL Central)
Pythagorean: 20-17
Difference: +3
One run Record: 9-3
Defensive Efficiency: 0.696 (21st)
Runs Scored: 195 (4th)
Runs Allowed: 183 (15th)
The Reds deserve a great deal of credit for building a pretty decent pitching staff in the last year and a half. Bronson Arroyo will not win 20 games this season, but 15 wins isn't out of the question. Dave Williams isn't a game-breaker either, but both solidify a shaky rotation. Yet, no team with David Weathers as their closer can expect to go too far can they?
The above numbers point towards a team that is improved, but not as good as they are showing right now. In particular, their +3 rating in Pythagorean record correlates directly to their won-loss record in one run games. A team with a shaky bullpen shouldn't expect to be that good for very long. However, if they play better than .500 ball for the whole season it will be a momentous victory for the organization. They should be free from Griffey's contract eventually and the farm system will begin to produce some pitching down the road.
One key stat here is the defensive efficiency. The Reds pitching staff (including Arroyo) have outperformed their defense through the first 37 games. Watch for their runs scored to come closer to their rank in defensive efficiency. If that happens they will definitely come back to the pack in the Central. However, a third place finish is a revelation for this franchise.
The Tigers
Won-Loss: 23-13
Pythagorean: 24-12
Difference: -1
One Run Record: 7-4
Defensive Efficiency: .738 (1st)
Runs Scored: 181 (15th)
Runs Allowed: 125 (1st)
How about those Tigers? The funny thing about the Tigers is that people focus on their power at the plate. The emergence of Chris Shelton will do that, but the Tigers pitching and defense has been more impressive. Their lead in runs allowed is even more pronounced in the American League where clubs have the benefit of the DH. The Tigers pitching staff isn't much to look at, but their defense has been top notch so far.
Out of the three teams, the Tigers have the best chance of sticking as the season goes along. Their Pythagorean record is very promising and the fielding also bodes well for the future. Be careful not to read too much into Jim Leyland and his antics. Talent wins in baseball and the Tigers emergence has more to do with the health of Magglio Ordonez and the emergence of Chris Shelton than anything Leyland has done or what Alan Trammel didn't do.
The Rockies
Won-Loss: 21-16
Pythagorean: 18-19
Difference: +3
One Run Record: 10-4
Defensive Efficiency: 0.689 (23rd)
Runs Scored: 176 (17th)
Runs Allowed: 177 (15th)
I was harsh in my assessment of the Rockies on the preseason predictions feature, but they have some good young pitchers that make their outlook brighter. Still, if you are average or worse in runs scored and runs allowed you have to count your lucky stars if you are anywhere near first place. The Rockies have the look of a very average team, but average is better than they have been.
We can predict a bump in runs scored for them in the future, but their defensive efficiency also points to more runs allowed. All told, they should finish somewhere between 75 and 80 wins. All three teams have done their best to prove this reporter wrong. Although the odds are against all three of these teams going to the playoffs, the future is bright.
Common Threads
If these three teams have anything in common it is their reliance on young players to bring them back to contention. In an age where teams try to suddenly reverse their fortunes through free agency, it is refreshing to see teams rely on the Cory Sullivans, Chris Sheltons, and Felipe Lopezs of the world. Nearly every team at the top of the standings can thank at least a couple of young players for their fortunes.
The other bottom feeders continue to feed on the bottom because they continue to rely on mediocre veterans. You can never purchase enough mediocrity to be mediocre when you live on a budget. All three teams suffered through long dry spells, but the ominous clouds appear to be clearing for them. There will be growing pains and they could fade down the stretch, but the first division is a place none of these teams expected to see at the beginning of the season.
Scott Barzilla is the author of “Checks and Imbalances,” “The State of Baseball Management,” and is looking forward to his release of “On the Outside Looking” at the end of 2006.
