Fantasy Ball and the QuesTec System
by Jonathan Leshanski
June 5, 2003
QuesTec: Its impact on fantasy baseball.
The QuesTec system has been a major topic for discussion these days since
being brought to the forefront by Curt Shilling taking a bat to one of
their “umpire monitoring systems” out in Arizona (hmm…wonder
if that may have contributed to his broken hand?) The real question is
why are Curt and so many other managers, pitchers, pitching coaches, and
umpires so upset? The answer is multifold but the bottom line is that
QuesTec affects not only pitchers during their games, but fantasy statistics
as well.
QuesTec is operational in 13 of 30 major league ballparks and the effects
are still being measured. However the trends already noted seem to point
to much smaller strike zones because umpires get punished if more than
10% of their called strikes are not also called by the QuesTec system.
This leads to ace pitchers losing out on calls they would usually get
which results in fewer strikeouts, more walks and a tighter strike zone
that ultimately favors the hitter.
QuesTec makes even good pitchers parks much more friendly to hitters.
They no longer have to pay as much attention to the corners and are more
likely to get a pitch they can handle better. It goes without saying that
most veteran pitchers hate it because they are no longer getting the borderline
calls. The umpires are scared to call borderline pitches the way they
think they should be called - because they are punished and considered
ineligible for post season umpiring if their calls don’t match with
what the QuesTec machine says they should be.
Because of this, pitching at all of the parks where QuesTec has been installed
has been less than what we might usually expect. Aces like Curt Schilling,
Tom Glavine, Randy Johnson, Andy Pettite, Jeff Weaver, Al Leiter, Derek
Lowe and many others have been getting hit much harder than anyone expected,
especially in their home parks where QuesTec is installed. Umpires have
apologized saying that they’d like to call it the way they see it
- but it’s a computer night. (paraphrased from a number of sources).
By contrast younger, less developed pitchers who don’t yet have a
reputation are able to get the same calls as the veterans do but only
because the vets are no longer getting the calls that were once “theirs”.
Its effects are narrowing the difference in the pitching field in all
of fantasy baseball. Aces are no longer as dominating due to the loss
of these calls while rookies and average pitchers are finding the disadvantage
much less when they face big name pitchers. WHIPS have seemingly increased
due to more balls being called and the forcing of more hittable pitches
that end up being hits.
So what that means is that pitching when at the QuesTec parks is devalued
greatly and offense is valued higher than elsewhere. So which parks have
QuesTec? After extensive searching we still did not have a complete list
but we know it’s at both New York ballparks (might be a factor in
the Yankees troubles - especially at home), Boston, Anaheim, Baltimore,
Cleveland, Arizona, Milwaukee, Houston, Oakland, and Tampa bay. It is
expected to be operational this season in Kansas City, U.S. Cellular Field
in Chicago, and Cincinnati.
Numerically the changes have been looking something like this at the parks
with QuesTec.
Earned Runs Per Game Average scored against the home pitching staff
Yankees
2002 - 3.93
2003 - 4.07
Diamondbacks
2002 - 4.35
2003 - 4.72
Mets
2002 - 3.74
2003 -4.19
Athletics
2002 - 3.52
2003 -2.78
Red Sox
2002 - 3.96
2003 - 4.30
Angels
2002 - 3.59
2003 - 4.04
Orioles
2002 - 4.23
2003 - 4.18
Brewers
2002 - 4.51
2003 - 5.38
Devil Rays
2002 - 5.14
2003 - 5.46
Astros
2002 - 3.94
2003 - 4.20
Indians
2002 - 4.88
2003 - 4.11
In looking at those numbers only two teams have noticeable oddities. Oakland
which possesses the best staff in baseball has fewer runs scored which
have over half a run (probably due to a healthy Mulder and the emergence
of Ted Lilly) and Cleveland which is rebuilding and throwing a lot of
rookies has improved (which may be due to lack of offense in the weakest
division in baseball).
However all of the other teams have either remained roughly the same or
in the case of the teams that have better staffs such as the Astros, Yankees,
Mets, Angels, Red Sox, and Diamondbacks, we have seen more runs yielded.
While statistically this is small sample we’ve all seen top pitchers
almost across the board have a harder time in the QuesTec ballparks. It’s
something we’ll keep an eye on, but it could be a big factor in baseball
this year. And it will be a huge factor next year as it devalues almost
all top pitchers.
We will bring you more statistics throughout the season
as the information becomes available.
Please visit the forums
and let us know what you think about the QuesTec System.
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