I’m dating myself with that reference. When I was a kid I remember watching the “Laff Olympics” where the “Really Rottens” always found ways to lose each event. In our continuing series at the quarter pole we look at the teams on pace to lose more than 100 games (well more than 100 as it were). I don’t know futility fascinates me. I’m certain my critics will find a punch-line in their somewhere. Yet, the 2003 Tigers fascinated me nearly as much as the 2001 Mariners.
This year, there are four teams ready to satiate my appetite for futility. Yet, much like the pleasant surprises, these train wrecks may not look much like train wrecks at the end of the season. Most of us predicted futility for the Marlins and the Royals find new creative ways to be futile, but the Bucs and Nats appeared on their way to respectability. Perhaps, we should have seen this coming, but it is just as possible that they aren’t as bad as they appear.
The Marlins
W-L Record: 11-24
Pythagorean W-L: 15-20
Difference: -4
One Run W-L: 3-8
Runs Scored: 165 (25th)
Runs Allowed: 195 (23rd)
Defensive Efficiency: .688 (24th)
True fultility can’t be missed. The Marlins aren’t futile, they’re just young. Conventional wisdom tells us that good teams win the close ones, but conventional wisdom is often wrong. Truth be told, most teams split the close ones. The talent gap is seen in the blowouts. Shift two one run games in either direction and this club is a relatively respectable 13-22.
Don’t make any mistake, the Marlins are a bad baseball team, but there’s a far cry between bad and deplorable. Their pitching and defense match up pretty well, but the offense might pick up as the season goes on. The Marlins will lose 100 games more than likely, but I wouldn’t put their mark at many more than 105 losses. Fans of the 1962 Mets will have to wait for another team to break their mark. Even more embarrassing, Larry Beinfest has done a great job of bringing in young talent while the next few teams are still finding their way.
The Nationals
W-L Record: 13-25
Pythagorean Record: 17-21
Difference: -4
One Run W-L: 2-9
Runs Scored: 170 (22nd)
Runs Allowed: 193 (22nd)
Defensive Efficiency: 0.718 (7th)
The Nationals poor record is almost a mirage. Of course, Jim Bowden isn’t doing himself any favors these days, but this club isn’t that bad. The pitching staff is still the same as last year and the offense looks better on paper. The key stats of hope are found in the record in one run games and defensive efficiency. Both stats bode well as we move forward.
Like with the Marlins, you can expect that record in one run games to turn around. Truth be told, a .500 record in one run games might be too much, but a .500 overall record might also be asking too much. The key here is for them to get back to 70 wins and deal some of the high priced veterans away so they can build for the future like the Marlins have. At any rate, don’t look for the Nationals to break the Mets’ record for futility either.
The Bucs
W-L Record: 12-27
Pythagorean Record: 15-24
Difference: -3
One Run W-L: 4-10
Runs Scored: 155 (28th)
Runs Allowed: 199 (23rd)
Defensive Efficiency: 0.672 (29th)
The Bucs surprise me, but I find myself getting surprised more and more often these days. I thought acquiring Jeromy Burnitz and Sean Casey would boost their offense, but Burnitz has been terrible and Casey is hurt. Jason Bay is a heck of a player and Craig Wilson is always underrated, but two players aren’t enough to carry an offense. If Casey can return and perform at past levels this team won’t be as bad as they are now, but their pitching staff might actually be overachieving (given their defensive efficiency).
If MLB could find a way to uproot PNC Park and put it in another market they would contract the Marlins and Pirates and be done with it. The Pirates were relevant way back when Barry Bonds’ head fit through doors. Heck, Doug Drabek was in his prime back then. Now, his son might be a first round pick in this year’s draft. Time flies when you’re losing 90 or more games every year. Dave Littlefield has actually done a good job, but this franchise is floundering. Still, I wouldn’t expect much more than 100 losses from then this year.
The Royals
W-L Record: 10-26
Pythagorean Record: 11-25
Difference: -1
One Run W-L: 4-6
Runs Scored: 138 (30th)
Runs Allowed: 217 (28th)
Defensive Efficiency: 0.696 (20th)
Now, this is a bad baseball team. I’m sorry Royals fans, but the only race Allard Baird and Buddy Bell are in is the race to the unemployment line. Two comments stand out to me in regards to the futility of the Royals. First, Allard Baird talked about acquiring a prospect because he recognized the curve ball. The problem was that the kid had four times as many Ks as walks. This begged the question: if he recognizes the curve ball, why is he still swinging at it?
Looking at the defensive efficiency data should make me optimistic, but the club walks more than four runners per nine innings while striking out less than six. This prompted comment number two. Buddy Bell and their pitching coach told the press that they would talk to their pitchers about the importance of throwing strikes. Ah, is that how it works? Perhaps I should talk to a professional golfer about the importance of hitting it 280 yards and in the fairway off the tee. That should do the trick right?
The Sum of All Fears
All of these teams could lose 100 games, but the Royals stand to lose the most. They could lose 100 or more for the third season in a row and for the fourth time in five seasons. Baseball history is full of futility in these regards and they are nowhere close to meeting that mark. The Phillies lost 100 or more games 12 times between 1920 and 1945 with five seasons in a row between 1938 and 1942. Considering the 154 game schedule, I should mention the fact that they lost 90 or more games 9 additional times during that 25 year period.
The Royals have had similar problems since 1990, but that gives them ten years to turn it around. Firing the general manager is one thing, but getting the Glass’s to agree to a genuine rebuilding process is another. What’s the worst that can happen in rebuilding? You lose 100 games again? The future for the Marlins and Nationals is more optimistic. They at least have forward thinking people at the helm.
Scott Barzilla is the author of “Checks and Imbalances,” “The State of Baseball Management,” and is looking forward to his release of “On the Outside Looking” at the end of 2006.
