The Skinny:
The team has new owners, but the same old players, and the stress there should probably be on OLD.  Not a single one of the everyday starters with the exception of Geovany Soto is in the prime of his career, and as they age, the statistics and the production can be expected to slip.  That doesn't mean that the Cubs can't contend -- this division is basically wide open and even the Cardinals are vulnerable, so writing off the Cubs wouldn't be smart.

The team has some young talent in its farm, but if new ownership is to be believed, the attitude might well be, win sooner, not later, and that talent could be on the trading block if the team looks like it's in the mix come July.  That's a big if, but as mentioned above, this division is wide open.

The Cubs are waiting for the return of Ted Lilly to the rotation.

Photo by pastorbuhro, used under creative commons license.

Painting the Town:
IF - Bryan LaHair* (Free Agent from Mariners)
IF - Kevin Millar* (Free Agent from Blue Jays)
IF - Chad Tracy* (Free Agent from D'Backs)
UT - Xavier Nady (Free Agent from Yankees)
OF - Marlon Byrd (Free Agent from Rangers)
RHP - Carlos Silva (Free Agent from Mariners)
RHP - Jeff Gray (Trade with A's)

Escaping the Wind:
IF - Aaron Miles (Traded to A's, then traded to Reds)
UT - Jake Fox (Traded to A's)
OF - Reed Johnson (Free Agent, signed with Dodgers)
OF - Milton Bradley (Traded to Mariners)
LHP - Neil Cotts* (Non Tendered, signed with Pirates
RHP - Kevin Gregg (Free Agent, signed with Blue Jays)
RHP - Rich Harden (Free Agent, signed with Mariners)
RHP - Aaron Heilman (Traded to D'Backs)
RHP - Chad Fox (Free Agent, unsigned)

*Signed minor league contract.

Strengths:  Starting pitching (kind of), Offensive Potential in the Middle of the Lineup
Despite the loss of Rich Harden in the offseason the Cubs have reason to feel optimistic about their starting rotation, especially in a division where pitching is thin and offense is generally light.  Only divisional rivals Milwaukee (785 runs scored) and St. Louis (730) scored more runs than the Cubs did in 2009, but only St. Louis boasted better pitching, and St. Louis took far bigger hits in both of those categories since last year.

That means that when the dust settles and the pitching staff is healthy once again that the Cubs feel that their starters -- Carlos Zambrano, Ryan Dempster, Ted Lilly, Randy Wells and Carlos Silva -- will match up well against anyone in the division.  It's outside the division that it might really be a problem since Zambrano is only marginally a number one pitcher, Wells is still fairly unproven and Silva has to prove he can throw anything other than batting practice to the opposing team (6.82 ERA over the past two seasons -- while playing in a pitcher friendly park).

Still the Cubs don't have to finish with better records than teams in the east or west (good thing).

Like most teams in this division the Cubs don't have an overwhelming offense, but what they have has a lot of potential -- especially when it comes to power.  The lineup however does have quite a few holes and question marks, there is no question that hitters 3 through 5 -- Derrek Lee, Aramis Ramirez and Marlon Byrd -- can hit, and there is plenty of hope that Alfonso Soriano and Geovany Soto can contribute big time.

But Soriano is a big question mark in many ways.  Now at age 34 it's obvious that the twilight years of his career have either already begun or are just a season or two away.  His speed which once could be counted on for 30-40 stolen bases is mostly gone, his power numbers have fallen consistently since 2006 and he's only managed to play 115 games per season on average too.  The Cubs believe that the post surgery Soriano can do a lot better, but unless he impresses a bit more this spring it's hard to imagine that the improvement will be dramatic.

While Soriano has upside with the bat, you have to wonder if the same can be said for catcher Geovany Soto who crashed back to earth last season (.218-11-47) after his 2008 rookie campaign (.285-23-86).  The answer is that Soto probably can produce numbers somewhere between those two extremes based on what he'd done both here and in the minor leagues too.  Still, until he proves that last year was a fluke he has to be counted as a weak link in a lineup that really has too many.

As the Cubs come into the season with no true leadoff hitter the team will probably rely an awful lot on the light hitting Ryan Theriot (.284) to fill that void.  If he can handle the pressure he should be all right -- he has a modicum of speed and a solid OBP, but it's not the most familiar of roles for him and expectations will be high.

Kosuke Fukudome (.259) will bat second, and while he's failed to impress many, his high OBP (.375 last season) is the reason he's the number two hitter in the lineup.  He's far from the weakest link.  That honor belongs to Mike Fontenot who hit just .236 last season and doesn't seem to have a lot of upside.

Weaknesses: Bullpen, Defense, Bottom of the lineup.
Only three teams in the National League had more errors than the Cubs (105) last year (Arizona, Florida, and Washington) and that's not good company to be in.  That's especially true when three of the guys the team is most counting on Ryan Theriot (15), Alfonso Soriano (11) and Aramis Ramirez (10) accounted for over a third of the team's gaffes.  It doesn't promise to be a lot better in 2010, although there are hopes that Soriano with his surgically repaired left knee will show some improved defense -- that might not be wishful thinking though, as Soriano managed 11 errors combined between 2007 and 2008.

As mentioned along with the offense above, the bottom of the Cubs lineup looks to be Alfonso Soriano, Geovanny Soto, Mike Fontenot and the pitcher.  That could be a very big vulnerability if Soriano and Soto struggle.

The bullpen is another potential hazard for the Cubs, especially right now as they've just received word that setup man Angel Guzman tore a ligament in his throwing shoulder.  The Cubs will have to throw a patch on that and look for some help, or rely heavily on youngsters to fill the late inning voids.  Closer Carlos Marmol isn't a sure thing either, he's failed twice to hang onto the job and only managed to regain it towards the end of last season.

Potential Lineup
SS Ryan Theriot
RF Kosuke Fukudome
1B Derrek Lee
3B Aramis Ramirez
CF Marlon Byrd
LF Alfonso Soriano
C Geovany Soto
2B Mike Fontenot

Rotation
Carlos Zambrano
Ryan Dempster
Randy Wells
Carlos Silva
Ted Lilly - on the DL - look for Jeff Samardzija or Tom Gorzelanny to be the place holder (Gorzelanny probably has the edge as he's a lefty and the Cubs don't have one in their rotation otherwise)

Closer
Carlos Marmol

One question that need answering:
Was last season's Cubs collapse a fluke or a sign the team has passed its prime already?  The Cubs need a lot of guys to step up from last year if they want to compete.  New ownership seems to think the team is capable of getting to the playoffs, but once the season starts they may need to adjust to a different reality.

Prediction:
The Cubs could contend, but like the Reds, Brewers and Astros, they'd need a lot to go just right.  None of their key offensive guys are in the prime of their careers and it showed quite blatantly last year.  This year is likely to bring more of the same.  Even if someone like Geovany Soto does step back up, a decline can be expected from Aramis Ramirez, Marlon Byrd, Derrek Lee, and maybe even Alfonso Soriano (who didn't have a great year last year either).  The loss of Rich Harden won't help either, and I'd expect the Cubs to finish somewhere around third, with a sub .500 or .500 record at best.  A move up or down by one position in the standings would not be much of a surprise as so many teams in the Central are close to being on par with one another.

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