At Home Plate - 2010 Season Preview: Florida Marlins

2010 Season Preview: Florida Marlins

Written by Jonathan Leshanski (Contact & Archive) on April 02, 2010

The Skinny:
Despite falling short last season, the Marlins didn't make a lot of changes over the offseason and the ones they did make don't seem for the better. Clearly the fear of spending money is still strong within the organization -- the Marlins spent $0 guaranteed in free agency -- despite the fact that the team finished well. The tail end of the rotation is up for grabs, but this team seems awfully similar to what the Marlins put on the field last season, but you have to question where the upside is when the team doesn't support the strong pitching that Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson showed last year.

2009 Regular Season Record:87-75
Rank: Second in the NL East - 6.0 Games Back
Home Park: Sun Life Stadium

Reeled In:

Superstar Hanley Ramirez is already a veteran leader on the Marlins squad.

Photo by SD Dirk, used under creative commons license.

3B - Danny Richar* (Free Agent from Reds)
IF - Jorge Jimenez (Rule V Draft Pick From Red Sox)
IF - Mike Lamb* (Free Agent from Mets)
LHP - Hunter Jones (Trade with Red Sox)
RHP - Jose Veras* (Free Agent from Indians)
RHP - Seth McClung* (Free Agent from Brewers)
RHP - Derrek Turnbow* (Free Agent from Rangers)
RHP - Scott Strickland* (Free Agent from Dodgers)
RHP - Mike MacDougal* (Free Agent from Nationals)

The Ones that Got Away:
1B - Nick Johnson (Free Agent signed with Yankees)
1B/OF - Ross Gload (Free Agent signed with Phillies)
IF - Alfredo Amezaga (Non-Tendered signed with Dodgers)
OF - Jeremy Hermida (Trade with Red Sox)
RHP - Matt Lindstrom (Traded to Astros)
RHP - Scott Proctor* (Released signed with Braves)
RHP - Brendan Donnelly (Free Agent signed with Pirates)
RHP - Kiki Calero* (Free Agent, signed with Mets)

*Signed minor league contract.

Strengths: Youth and potential, Hanley Ramirez and a decent center of the lineup, Top of the Rotation
The Marlins throughout most of their history have been about player development and potential and this year's version of the Florida Marlins is much more of the same. They've had a lot of success in bringing talent to the big leagues, but they've failed to keep much of it. They are waiting for another season where everything seems to gel at once so that they can take a big leap forward and contend for the division title.

This might be the year they do it, but anytime you ask a bunch of players to step up at the same time it's a longshot. In the starting rotation the potential is clear -- after Ricky Nolasco and Josh Johnson, the bulwarks of the staff, the players competing for the final spots are all highly touted guys who the Marlins expected big things from. So far none of them have delivered, although Chris Volstad made some big steps last year. Anibal Sanchez is still on the rebound from the elbow surgery that derailed him back in 2007 and looks to have his first truly healthy since then and the remaining contenders, Andrew Miller, Rick VandenHurk and Sean West, all have good arms and have gotten plenty of hype.

On the offensive side the Marlins do need to see if Cameron Maybin can live up to the potential everyone thinks he has, while probable first baseman Gaby Sanchez has been waiting in the wings for his chance to jump out and shine. Chris Coghlan, will need to build on his terrific rookie year.

However the only proven strength of this team is the center of the order where the elite Hanley Ramirez bats third, followed by Jorge Cantu who has evolved into a solid power/average type of hitter as has Cody Ross who'll bat fifth. After him comes Dan Uggla, whose power is unquestioned but has an ugly tendency to strike out a lot. Still it's a decent offense and while they might not rate an A, they'd certainly rate no lower than a C+/B- going into the season.

Weaknesses: Closer situation, lots of unproven players.
With just a half season of experience under his belt, Leo Nunez doesn't have a clear lock on the closer's job and if he fails the Marlins options (Derrek Turnbow, Dan Meyer, Seth McClung) are far from elite.

After that the Marlins biggest problem is that few of their players are proven commodities. Coghlan, the most proven of the trio of Coghlan, Maybin and Sanchez (provided Sanchez gets the job) only has a single year of experience, and that as has been shown time and time again, isn't enough of a track record to presume that he can be counted on. The same goes for pretty much the whole pitching staff, where the senior starter, Josh Johnson, is only 27 and has a grand total of 76 Major League starts under his belt.

That means there is likely to be some fairly erratic production for the Marlins at the top and bottom of the batting order and in the starting rotation.

Potential Lineup
LF - Chris Coghlan
CF - Cameron Maybin
SS - Hanley Ramirez
3B - Jorge Cantu
2B - Dan Uggla
RF - Cody Ross
C - John Baker
1B - Gaby Sanchez

Rotation
Josh Johnson
Ricky Nolasco
Chris Volstad
Anibal Sanchez
Andrew Miller

Closer
Leo Nunez

One question that need answering:
Is this the season that Maybin becomes a star? There has been plenty of hype since he was taken 10th in the 2005 draft. He's got the potential to be a five tool player, and if he shows it the Marlins offense will make up for a multitude of pitching woes, especially if Chris Coghlan can prove that 2009 was not a fluke.

Prediction:
The Marlins are as likely to take a step back as they are a step forward in 2010. However, no one in the East, save the Phillies, look to be all that impressive and the Phillies pitching isn't rock solid despite the pundits who claim that it is. Still I think asking the Marlins to overtake them is just too much -- the Phillies lineup is that good. The Marlins are another dark horse contender, although far more likely for the Wild Card than for the division. I'll pick them to finish second once again, mainly because I think the Braves will take a step back without Javier Vazquez and the Mets and Nationals just won't have the horses to get much further than about .500.

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