The Skinny:
2010 probably won't be as cruel to the Mets as 2009 was when the team was decimated by injuries from top to bottom. The Mets don't seem to have dodged that bug particularly well though as they'll be missing both Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes for at least the early part of the season. Their one major signing of the offseason, Jason Bay was a bone to throw to the fans, rather than one which will benefit this team in the long run. Speculation that the Mets are out of money could well be true as the team failed to address many of their major needs.
2009 Regular Season Record: 70-92
Rank: Fourth in the NL East - 23.0 Games Back
Home Park: Citi Field
Citi Boys:
C - Henry Blanco (Free Agent from Padres)
C - Shawn Riggans* (Free Agent from Rays)
C - Rod Barajas (Free Agent from Blue Jays)
1B - Mike Jacobs* (Free Agent from Royals)
IF/OF - Frank Catalanotto (Free Agent from Brewers)
OF - Jason Bay (Free Agent from Red Sox)
OF - Jason Pridie (Wavier Claim from Twins)
OF - Gary Matthews Jr. (Trade from Angels)
LHP - Hisanori Takahashi* (Free Agent played in Japan last year.)
RHP - Ryota Igarashi (Free Agent played in Japan last year.)
RHP - Kelvim Escobar (Free Agent from Angels)
RHP - Kiki Calero* (Free Agent, signed from Marlins)
Getting those Little Town Blues:
C - Brian Schneider (Free Agent signed with Phillies)
1B - Carlos Delgado (Free Agent, unsigned)
IF - Mike Lamb* (Free Agent Signed with Marlins)
IF - Ramon Martinez (Free Agent, unsigned)
OF - Cory Sullivan* (Non-Tendered signed with Astros)
OF - Jeremy Reed* (Non-Tendered signed with Blue Jays)
OF - Gary Sheffield (Free Agent, unsigned)
LHP - Ken Takahashi (Released, signed in Japan)
RHP - Tim Redding (Non-Tendered signed with Blue Jays)
RHP - J.J. Putz (Free Agent signed with White Sox)
*Signed minor league contract.
Strengths: Starting Pitching, some promising youngsters, David Wright.The Jason Bay signing isn't one that will put this team over the top anytime soon, but it did possibly have one benefit that could actually help the team. Bay, by all accounts, is a very nice guy and a great team player -- something the Mets desperately needed to help change the attitude in the clubhouse (and a reason they didn't bring back Carlos Delgado). He'll provide some veteran leadership and serve as a role model for David Wright, the only reliable star this team has had over the past few seasons.
As these Mets have little hope of competing without a quick and full recovery by Beltran and Reyes (who could miss a lot more time then the Mets have estimated), and barring that, logic would dictate that general manager Omar Minaya won't survive the season, we might get a chance to see some of the top young players in the Mets organization get to try their hand in the big leagues. Those include first baseman Ike Davis and pitcher Jenrry Mejia both of whom have a chance to make the team out of Spring Training. Pitcher Eric Niesen and catcher Josh Thole might not be far behind.
The other positive point for the Mets, albeit a very uncertain one, is the pitching staff which has the potential to do a lot better than it did last year. Johan Santana who is returning from late season surgery should be his usual self.  Mike Pelfrey is capable of improving and youngsters Jonathon Niese and Fernando Nieves both have some upside. A healthy season by John Maine, and even an appearance of being average from Oliver Perez would help tremendously.
Weaknesses: Offense, defense, bullpen, injuries.
Without Beltran and Reyes the Mets will be only a tiny bit better off than they were last year when it comes to generating offense. Wright will need to rediscover his power, else Bay might be the only real threat in the lineup.  After Bay, the threat level in the lineup falls considerably with only Jeff Francoeur and Daniel Murphy, both serviceable players there before Cora, Barajas and the pitcher offering an easy 1-2-3.
The loss of Reyes at the top of the order will force the Mets to rely on Luis Castillo to lead off (unless they do something radical like ask David Wright to do it) which won't help their offense much.
The Mets bullpen, which hasn't been a strength in the past few seasons, won't look to be much better in 2010. Ken Takahaski, one of the few relievers with a sub 3 ERA is gone, and the Mets seem to be relying on Kelvim Escobar (coming off an injury last year, and is expected to start the season on the DL) and Japanese righty Ryota Igarashi are the only sure additions to the pen, although another Japanese pitcher, lefty Hisanori Takahashi, may earn a shot this spring.
Defensively the Mets are going to struggle too. Alex Cora is no Reyes in the field, Murphy is always an adventure, Castillo committed 11 errors last year, Wright committed 18, and Jason Bay and Angel Pagan don't have great range. It's not an ideal situation and it will cost the team some games.
Besides the chronic injuries which seem to be derailing Jose Reyes the team has a lot of key guys coming back either from surgery or from mental issues which sidelined them last year. That includes Santana (elbow), Maine (shoulder), Perez (mental block), Reyes (Hamstrings/thyroid) and Beltran (knee).
Potential Lineup
2B - Luis Castillo (With Reyes on the shelf pickings are slim)
CF - Angel Pagan
3B - David Wright
LF - Jason Bay
RF - Jeff Francoeur
1B - Daniel Murphy/Ike Davis
SS - Alex Cora
C - Rod Barajas
Rotation
Johan Santana
Mike Pelfrey
John Maine
Oliver Perez
Fernando Nieve/Jonathon Niese
Closer
Francisco Rodriguez
One question that need answering:
When is Reyes coming back? Reyes more than Beltran is the engine who'll spark offense for this Mets team. If he returns and hits and runs like Reyes, this team will probably score 60 more runs than it will score with the replacement players. That will translate to wins or losses and determine if the Mets run at .500 or at last place.
Prediction:
Before the whole Reyes thing I thought the Mets were probably about a .500 team, with a shot at third in the division, maybe even second if the Marlins and Braves both took a step back. Now I think .500 would be a real reach, one that could only be accomplished if the starting pitching outperformed all expectations. I think the Mets might have a hard time finishing fourth and the longer they go without Reyes and Beltran the more likely I think the cellar is.
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