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By Nate Tarpey

2012 List: From this list, the names you should have been targeting were the young-ish guys with low SIERAs. Scherzer & Wainwright stood out as decent bargains. They were a $19 guys where elite SP were going for much more. Yu Darvish also did great, but that was mostly due to strikeouts, and he probably cost you more. Beware chronic BABIP underperformers, though, like Joe Blanton.


Photo by Harsh, used under creative commons license.

Name

ERA

SIERA

Diff

Story for 2013:

Luke Hochevar

5.73

4.2

1.53

Became elite RP

Joe Blanton

4.71

3.45

1.26

Continued to struggle. Seems like a chronic SIERA underperformer.

Tim Lincecum

5.18

3.97

1.21

SIERA too high to be of much use. Rebounded a bit though.

Ivan Nova

5.02

3.84

1.18

SIERA too high to be of much use. Rebounded a bit though.

Jon Lester

4.82

3.94

0.88

SIERA too high to be of much use. Rebounded a bit though.

Ervin Santana

5.16

4.35

0.81

SIERA too high to be of much use. Rebounded a bit though.

Ricky Romero

5.77

4.98

0.79

Out of the league

Justin Masterson

4.93

4.17

0.76

SIERA too high to be of much use. Rebounded a bit though.

Bud Norris

4.65

3.9

0.75

SIERA too high to be of much use. Rebounded a bit though.

Max Scherzer

3.74

2.99

0.75

Became an ACE.

Bruce Chen

5.07

4.34

0.73

SIERA too high to be of much use. Rebounded a bit though.

Derek Holland

4.67

3.96

0.71

SIERA too high to be of much use. Rebounded a bit though.

Adam Wainwright

3.94

3.33

0.61

Became an ACE.

Rick Porcello

4.59

4

0.59

SIERA too high to be of much use. Rebounded a bit though.

Mike Leake

4.58

4.01

0.57

SIERA too high to be of much use. Rebounded a bit though.

Ubaldo Jimenez

5.4

4.85

0.55

SIERA too high to be of much use. Rebounded a bit though.

Josh Beckett

4.65

4.16

0.49

Injury plagued season.

Dan Haren

4.33

3.87

0.46

SIERA too high to be of much use. Rebounded a bit though.

Jeff Samardzija

3.81

3.4

0.41

Had a great start but imploded later in the season.

Tommy Hanson

4.48

4.1

0.38

Injury plagued season.

Yu Darvish

3.9

3.55

0.35

Became an ACE.

James Shields

3.52

3.19

0.33

Had a solid season.

Henderson Alvarez

4.85

4.52

0.33

SIERA too high to be of much use. Rebounded a bit though.

Edwin Jackson

4.03

3.75

0.28

SIERA too high to be of much use.

Phil Hughes

4.23

3.95

0.28

SIERA too high to be of much use. Rebounded a bit though.

Ricky Nolasco

4.48

4.23

0.25

SIERA too high to be of much use. Rebouned a bit though.

Lance Lynn

3.78

3.56

0.22

Had a great start but imploded later in the season.

Anibal Sanchez

3.86

3.64

0.22

Became an ACE.

2013 List: A lot less variance (read: bad luck) in ERA-SIERA this year, very interesting! Not much to say here except don't sleep on Felix or AJ Burnett. Chris Sale is also elite, and I like Homer Bailey over Cole Hamels this year, but don't pay too much for either.

Name

ERA

SIERA

Diff

Story for 2014:

Edinson Volquez

5.71

4.34

1.37

SIERA too high to be of much use, probably ignore him for 2014 fantasy purposes.

Dan Haren

4.67

3.6

1.07

I won't be surprised if he does well, but he's getting old.

Jeremy Hellickson

5.17

4.15

1.02

Out for the season.

Edwin Jackson

4.98

4.04

0.94

Chronic underperformer, and the Cubs still have a poor defense.

Rick Porcello

4.32

3.39

0.93

Chronic underperformer, but improved defense could help him.

CC Sabathia

4.78

3.95

0.83

Watch his ST velocity, he would be a nice comeback story if not injured.

Joe Saunders

5.26

4.49

0.77

SIERA too high to be of much use, probably ignore him for 2014 fantasy purposes.

Ian Kennedy

4.91

4.16

0.75

SIERA too high to be of much use, probably ignore him for 2014 fantasy purposes.

Jeff Samardzija

4.34

3.6

0.74

See Edwin Jackson. The talent is there though.

Tim Lincecum

4.37

3.75

0.62

Chronic underperformer at this point, I don’t trust him.

Kyle Kendrick

4.7

4.34

0.36

SIERA too high to be of much use, probably ignore him for 2014 fantasy purposes.

Ryan Dempster

4.57

4.26

0.31

Retired?

Lance Lynn

3.97

3.76

0.21

Chronic underperformer at this point, I don’t trust him.

Felix Hernandez

3.04

2.84

0.2

Maybe slightly undervalued as he sometimes isn't being taken as a top 3 SP.

A.J. Burnett

3.3

3.1

0.2

Getting old, but still should be dominant in the NL.

Doug Fister

3.67

3.49

0.18

Move to NL plus SIERA regression--nice combo.

Jerome Williams

4.57

4.42

0.15

SIERA too high to be of much use, probably ignore him for 2014 fantasy purposes.

Yovani Gallardo

4.18

4.05

0.13

SIERA too high to be of much use, probably ignore him for 2014 fantasy purposes.

Cole Hamels

3.6

3.48

0.12

Solid.

Chris Sale

3.07

2.96

0.11

Solid.

Homer Bailey

3.49

3.39

0.1

Solid.

Matt Cain

4

3.91

0.09

SIERA too high to be of much use, probably ignore him for 2014 fantasy purposes.

Felix Doubront

4.32

4.26

0.06

SIERA too high to be of much use, probably ignore him for 2014 fantasy purposes.

Justin Masterson

3.45

3.4

0.05

Solid.

R.A. Dickey

4.21

4.18

0.03

Watch his ST velocity, he would be a nice comeback story if not injured.