Written by Adam Adkins
Published: 21 June 2007
In April, it seemed rather clear that Alex Rodriguez was on his way to
his 3rd AL MVP. 14 Homers. 34 RBI. 2 Walk Off Home Runs. No one could
In May, he slumped to the tune of about a .750 OPS
, and someone passed him in VORP
and in OPS.
Hello, Mr. Ordonez! Where have ye been?
That's right folks, Magglio Ordonez is trucking along to the tune of a .354 EQA
and a league-leading 47.3 VORP
. His 1.104 OPS,
is 2nd in the AL behind Rodriguez.
So, it appears this whole MVP thing is turning into a quagmire! Who to chose?
Well, it's not like Rodriguez has simply quit. His own .344 EQA
, 45.5 VORP
and 1.110 OPS
are all quite good. Also, his WARP1
is 5.1, besting Ordonez's 4.4. (WARP1
takes into account defense...Rodriguez is 2 runs above average at Third, Ordonez is 3 below average in Right.)
there's one key teeny-tiny little stat that should be considered. It's
called BABIP. It means, in layman's terms, the percentage of balls put
in play that turn into hits. Typical averages are around .280, and
anything drastically lower or higher can usually point towards a
regression to the mean.
Magglio Ordonez's 2007 BABIP: .383
Alex Rodriguez's 2007 BABIP: .306
like Rodriguez is getting a few lucky bounces, while Ordonez is about
70 points higher than normal. He isn't likely to stay at .383 and when
it drops, so will the Batting Average, (his own league-leading .371
average will end up around .300, and with it the VORP
if I voted today, my vote would have to go to Ordonez. But chances are,
Magglio will regress, and Rodriguez will end up challenged by a
superior hitter, one like Travis Hafner or Vladimir Guerrero.
Ok, on the to Senior Circuit folks.
you watch ESPN, the first name that will pop into your head when
someone says "NL MVP" is the new face of the Mets, Jose Reyes.
can't say I'd disagree too much with that. The NL has a bunch of really
good players so far, but no A-Rod type performance that sets someone
Here are your NL leaders in VORP as of June 18th:
1. Matt Holliday- 35. 1
2. Miguel Cabrera- 34.4
3. Chase Utley- 32.9
4. Jose Reyes- 32.1
5. Hanley Ramirez- 31.2
Difference between #1 and #5? 3.9. That's incredibly close. Now, the NL Leaders in OPS:
1. Barry Bonds- 1.073
2. Matt Holliday- 1.015
3. Miguel Cabrera- 1.013
4. Prince Fielder- 1.011
5. Chase Utley- .969
Still incredibly close, at least between #1-#4. A familiar face fills the first position, and the Prince fills the 4 hole.
Holliday is 1st in VORP and 2nd in OPS (with a .320 EqA and a 4.3
WARP1). However, Holliday's BABIP is incredible (.409) and therefore
almost guaranteed to drop about 50 points (his career BABIP is .344)
and with that most of his rate stats. Still, a 60 VORP year is well
within his grasp.
Reyes and fellow young stud short-stop Hanley
Ramirez nearly cancel one another out. 32.1 (Reyes) vs 31.2 (Ramirez)
in VORP scores. .861 OPS vs .879 OPS. .306 vs .311 in EQA. 4.1 vs 3.4
I can't really see a winner in that debate, so we'll
move on to who I think has been the premier player in the NL this year
Yep, Chase is the best player in
the NL right now. His EqA is a fantastic .322, and his WARP1 is an
incredible 5.3 (he's already provided the Phils with 5 wins, and it's
June? Wha-what?) His BABIP is 2o points higher than normal, but this
could end being Utley's career year.
(Note: this is all subject to change when Phat Albert reclaims his throne as the best player in baseball.)