Written by Jonathan Leshanski (Contact & Archive) on March 30, 2011
Adrian Gonzalez will swing his big stick for the Red Sox now.
Photo by SD Dirk, used under creative commons license.
2010 Record 89-73, third in the division, seven games back
Key Additions:
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B
Carl Crawford, OF
Bobby Jenks, RP
Dan Wheeler, RP
Matt Albers, RP
Key Losses:
Adrian Beltre, 3B
Victor Martinez, C
Key Man: Adrian Gonzalez
Move over Kevin Youkilis, Josh Beckett and David Ortiz, this is Adrian Gonzalez’s team now. Actually you could probably argue that it’s Carl Crawford’s at least until Gonzalez inks his extension (something expected to happen sometime next month). Then Gonzalez will be the face of the franchise for years to come, and he’ll wield the bat to prove it. The addition of A-Gon and Crawford make the Sox’ offense one of the best in the game, and one with a lot more youth than those in New York and Philadelphia.
And while their offense is solid, their bullpen is too. With Bobby Jenks, Daniel Bard and Jonathan Papelbon the final innings are pretty much nailed down, but like the Yankees they have some serious rotation questions. Jon Lester at this point is the real deal, but John Lackey and Josh Beckett can charitably be called erratic. Daisuke Matsuzaka is an inning eating workhorse, but far from a star, and Clay Buchholz despite his huge step forward last year is young and it’s hard to predict if he’ll be able to build on last year. If Buchholz can do that, they are several steps ahead of the competition.
Prediction: 97-65, first in the division.
Manny will try to prove that he can still hit.
Photo by Keith Allison, used under creative commons license.
2010 Record 96-66, first in division
Key Additions:
Manny Ramirez, DH/OF
Johnny Damon, OF Joel Peralta, RP
Cesar Ramos, RP
Adam Russell, RP
Kyle Farnsworth, RP
Key Losses:
Jason Bartlett, SS
Carl Crawford, OF
Matt Garza, SP
Carlos Pena, 1B
Dan Wheeler, RP
Rafael Soriano, RP
Grant Balfour, RP
Gabe Kapler, OF
Chad Qualls, RP
Key Man: Manny Ramirez
The Rays lost a big part of what was thought to be their heart and soul this season, and many think that without Carl Crawford and Carlos Pena the Rays aren’t going to be contenders. But success or failure in 2011 will have little to do with the departure of those names. It will be determined by the bats of Manny Ramirez and Johnny Damon and what happens with the bullpen.
If Damon can churn out one more respectable season as a leadoff hitter and Manny can find redemption after two disappointing seasons the Rays might very well continue to chug right along. And that actually seems likely, as the Rays still possess the best starting pitching in the division. The weakness looks to lie in the arms of a bullpen that underwent wholesale changes in the offseason.
On paper the changes were not for the better, but paper isn’t what determines who wins games, and if the relative unknowns the Rays have brought in can do their job and Kyle Farnsworth can manage to be even a mid level closer the Rays are not going to lay down or even fall out of contention.
Predicted record: 94-68, second in the division, winner of the Wild Card.
Always relaxed, even if things do not look so good for the Yankees this season: Robinson Cano
Photo by Keith Allison, used under creative commons license.
2010 Record 95-67, second in the division
Key Additions:
Russell Martin, C
Rafael Soriano, RP
Pedro Feliciano, RP
Key Losses:
Lance Berkman, DH
Javier Vazquez, SP
Chad Gaudin, SP/RP
Kerry Wood, RP
Key Man: Robinson Cano
The Yankees are still an offensive juggernaut, but that could change in the blink of an eye. Both Derek Jeter and Alex Rodriguez are in the twilight years of their career, and both are coming off years that could be harbingers of a continuous decline. Part of that slack was taken up by the rise of Robinson Cano, hands down the best offensive second baseman in the AL, but a down year by Cano with no sign of rebound could leave the Yankees even deeper in the hole then they may already be.
For the Yankees the potential Achilles heel is in the pitching, and not the late innings where Mariano Rivera and Rafael Soriano might be the best 1-2 in baseball. But after CC Sabathia the Yankees rotation is as big a question mark as any in the Majors. The names A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Ivan Nova and Freddy Garcia sure don’t have professional hitters quaking in their boots. If the pitching falls apart, even the vaunted Yankees offense and their high payroll won’t stop the collapse.
Prediction 88-74, third in the AL East
Can Jose Bautista repeat his breakout season and hit 50+ home runs again?
Photo by Keith Allison, used under creative commons license.
2010 Record 85-77, fourth in the division, 11 games back
Key Additions:
Chad Cordero, RP
Rajai Davis, OF
Octavio Dotel, RP
Jon Rauch, RP
Brian Stokes, RP
Carlos Villanueva, RP
Key Losses:
John Bick, C
Scott Downs, RP
Kevin Gregg, RP
Fred Lewis, OF
Shaun Marcum, SP
Lyle Overbay, 1B
Key Man: Brandon Morrow
The Jays have potential. They have an up-and-coming pitching staff with tremendous upside, they’ve got some solid offensive players, they’ve got youth coming from the farm system, but what they don’t have is hope of competing this year in East.
That’s not to say they won’t give the opposition fits, at least at times. Brandon Morrow, Brett Cecil, Kyle Drabek and Ricky Romero are each capable of throwing a gem at any time but there is too much youth and inexperience to expect any degree of consistency.
The offense will score enough runs for the Jays to win a fair number of games and the Jays could make a legit run at 90 wins, but probably will fall short.
Prediction: 88-74, fourth in the division.
After a surprise trip to the World Series with the Rangers, Vlad will anchor the O's lineup in 2011.
Photo by artolog, used under creative commons license.
2010 Record 66-96, last in the division, 30 games back.
Key Additions:
Vladimir Guerrero, DH/OF
Derrek Lee, 1B
J.J. Hardy, SS
Mark Reynolds, 3B
Kevin Gregg, RP
Key Losses:
Matt Albers, RP
Ty Wigginton, 1B/OF
Key Man: Vladimir Guerrero
The Orioles finally seem to have jumped on the bandwagon when it comes to focusing on the development of young talent, especially young pitching. This isn’t a team built to win, but to play entertaining baseball, put some butts in the seats and hopefully show some promise for the future.
The hitting should put up a respectable showing as long as older players Brian Roberts, Vladimir Guerrero and Derrek Lee can remain healthy. That should give Matt Wieters and Adam Jones a chance to grow up a bit more while pitchers Chris Tillman, Brian Matusz, Brad Bergesen and Jake Arrieta can try to take some steps forward.
Prediction: 75-87, last in the division.
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