How good are they? As I type Friday afternoon, the Dodgers have the best record in baseball at 47-26, and will easily win their division, the NL West. But come on. If Uncle Bud switched the Blue Jays and Dodgers, the Jays would easily win the NL West. Switch the Dodgers and Braves, and Atlanta easily wins the NL West. I hope you are starting to see my point: The NL West is not good. Dad tried to tell me that the Giants could be dangerous in the playoffs because of their pitching. If you ignore the awful defense and lack of an offense PLUS the fact that they only have Tim Lincecum and Matt Cain plus a trio of ERAs north of 4.50, then sure, maybe, why not? The Diamondbacks lost Brandon Webb. It's over. Hello and goodbye, Colorado. Do I even need to mention the Padres?
What about the offense? Russell Martin lost his bat, but it'll probably be back soon enough. I'm a big Martin fan. He's an elite catcher, but that's almost like saying he's a really smart American auto maker -- the crop has thinned. James Loney is not a great first baseman unless that OBP leaps up from its current .346.  Given that his career rate is just over .350, he's really only a serviceable first baseman (because he's not the best first basemen in baseball for glovework or power, that's all that is left). Orlando Hudson hits well and is alright with the glove. Good signing. Rafael Furcal is struggling to make contact, and his defense is falling apart. Reeks of injury. But, he is 31...we've had short stops fall off and die before, but I do wonder if he's just in a pronounced slump. Manny Ramirez will be back and mashing as usual soon in left, Matt Kemp is a star in center and Andre Either is a fine right fielder.
What do you want me to say? They can play. They'll punch their ticket in early September.
But what about once October comes around? It's the nature of the beast, but no one knows. There is just no real indicator of success come postseason time. Any of the eight teams that make it to the dance can win the Championship. Any of them.
So the Dodgers would have no real advantage over the Phillies or Mets or Cubs or whatever. They might, actually, have a slight disadvantage, because of their division. I don't know how much credence to put into the argument that the Dodgers won't play many meaningful games past the All-Star Break, but it has to have some effect, right? Maybe not enough to lose a series, but something.
Right now, they are the prohibitive favorite to win the NL, because the Cubs can't pitch and the Mets can't either and the Phils just seem to be so flaky. But I'm not confident in picking playoff winners, because it's literally random.
But getting to the dance is important, and the Dodgers will be there.
Adam also writes for his blog.
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