At Home Plate - Anything Goes: Tim Lincecum versus San Diego Padres

Anything Goes: Tim Lincecum versus San Diego Padres

Written by Adam Adkins (Contact & Archive) on July 11, 2009

Okay kiddies, I'm here to do a diary of Tim Lincecum's start at home against those mighty San Diego Padres. Some background: Lincecum last 5 starts: 42 IP, 27 H, 5 BB, 46 K, 0.86 ERA, and since May: 89 IP, 67 H, 20 BB, 98 K, 1.91 ERA. Yeesh. Also, he's in the midst of a 23-inning scoreless streak. Figure that tonight, that sucker continues.

Tim Lincecum is 10-2 with a 2.33 ERA, 149 Ks and a 1.05 WHIP this season.

Photo by rocor, used under creative commons license.

According to this Fangraphs page, Lincecum has thrown his fastball 58% of the time. Yet his velocity this year is lower than last, by 1.4 MPH. Velocity isn't always an indicator of a good fastball though. Pay attention to how the batters react to a pitcher's stuff. I'll keep an eye on how this band of jokers -- sorry, Pads fans -- reacts to Lincecum's dynamite stuff. (That'll be fun, too. How many different adjectives can I use to describe Lincecum? A bunch.)

The Padres, meanwhile, have a team OPS+ of 92, which is frankly higher than I expected. Then again, they are dead last in runs scored, and 29th in OPS. So, um, there you go. In 69 career innings against The Freak, the Pads are hitting a robust .201 with 12 runs scored.

The lineup he'll face (I'm only focusing on Lincecum's performance, I don't care how the Giants hit, although I am intrigued by this Kung-Fu Panda guy):

Everth Cabrera, SS: 109 OPS+
Tony Gwynn Jr.., CF: 120 OPS+
Adrian Gonzalez, 1B: 161 OPS+
Kevin Kouzmanoff, 3B: 88 OPS+
Chase Headley, LF: 95 OPS+
Will Venable, RF: 69 OPS+
Luis Rodriguez, 2B, 72 OPS+
Eliezer Alfonzo, C: 83 OPS+
Josh Geer, P: 41 OPS+

Goodness, with a lineup like that, how do they ever lose?

First Inning

-Cabrera versus Lincecum

Lincecum misses with several fastballs, and walks Cabrera. Am I shocked? Eh.

-Gwynn Jr. versus Lincecum

Lincecum gently tosses to first twice to hold Cabrera close. The gun says 91 on his fastball, but Gwynn feebly fouled one off prior and the mitt seems to be popping. Lincecum follows up to 0-2 with a nasty hammer curve on the outside corner. Next pitch, a curve down and in for the K. Nasty. Thanks for playing, Tony.

-Adrian Gonzalez versus Lincecum

Gonzalez quickly lines the first fastball to the second baseman, who then throws to first for the double play.

Through 1 inning: 0 H, 1 BB, 1 K, 9 Pitches-5 Strikes

-Kouzmanoff versus Lincecum

Kouzmanoff worked himself into a 2-1 hitter's count, but Lincecum fired a 95 MPH heater low and away, inducing a groundout.

-Headley versus Lincecum

First pitch curveball for a strike, fastball low for ball one. Change-up for strike two, unreal deception. Headley grounds the following fastball to second, two out. That change is perfect.

-Venable versus Lincecum

Curveball again for strike one, inside. Throws another in the dirt, ball one. Heater time? Yes, high and away, Venable checks his swing. Tough to lay off. Ball three low and away, driving to 3-1. Lincecum misses again for the walk, another fastball.

-Alfonzo versus Lincecum

Command not excellent tonight, but the stuff is. Fastball inside, strike one. He's hitting strike one a lot, a very important thing for a pitcher. Dials up the velocity, a little more in for a swinging strike. Curve time? Yes, but Alfonso lays off it, 1-2. I think you go heat here, this guy can't touch it. Painted strike three, but the ump didn't pull the trigger. Ooh. Lincecum throws to first, probably a little annoyed. Replay shows Molina wanted it high and in and Lincecum missed the spot, but it was still strike three. Alfonso spoils a flat curve foul, but swings right over another nasty change for strike three.

Through 2 innings: 0 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 28 Pitches-15 Strikes

-Rodriguez versus Lincecum

L-Rod grounds out to first on the first pitch. That's just kind of him. Why make the Freak embarrass you?

-Geer versus Lincecum

Strike one fastball, and then Geer flies out to right. 2 outs, 3 pitches. These Pads can really swing it!

-Cabrera versus Lincecum

Goes 1-1 after missing with the curve outside, and then to 2-1 after missing with a change. Lincecum goes with a fastball up and in, easy pop out to center. 7 pitches, 3 outs.

Through 3 innings: 0 H, 2 BB, 2 K, 35 Pitches-20 Strikes

-Gwynn Jr. versus Lincecum

Two pitches, pop out, 1 down.

- Gonzalez versus Lincecum

Lincecum misses with his first two pitches, gets a strike to make it 2-1. Gonzalez lined the next pitch hard on the ground to first, two out.

-Kouzmanoff versus Lincecum

Misses with the first two again, then fouls a fastball straight back for strike one. Change up time, inside. Lincecum ignores me and paints 94 on the black, outside, 2-2. Nasty. Curve? Fastball? Kouzmanoff swings over the change, low and in, for strike three. Thanks for playing, Kouzmanoff.

Through 4 innings: 0 H, 2 BB, 3 K, 46 Pitches-26 Strikes

Two walks aren't great, but his stuff is just untouchable tonight. The change-up is nasty and the arm motion is identical. I love this guy. And I thought Chamberlain had good stuff... please. The Freak has stuff so good that Billy Mays wanted to sell it on TV. (Is that wrong? Sorry.)

-Headley versus Lincecum

1-1 count, then drills a fastball high and away. With his gas, he can just live anywhere in the zone. He does a wonderful job of mixing pitches, too. Can't find a pattern. Headley dies by changeup for the K.

-Venable versus Lincecum

Hops on the first pitch and stings one to second. Juan Uribe makes a good play, saving the hit. 2 down.

-Alfonzo versus Lincecum

Again misses twice, 2-0. Misses high again, 3-0. Chill Tim. Just throw it down the middle. Duane Kuiper says Alfonzo is dangerous. Really? Dude's OPS+ is 83. He misses on a change up and barely fouls off another change up, 3-2. Bring the gas, Timmy. He does, and Alfonzo fouls off two in a row. Okay, paint a change, outside corner. He throws one, but leaves it over the plate, foul. Okay, heat, right on the hands. It'll work. Trust me, Tim. He throws it, Alfonzo grounds out. See?

Through 5 innings: 0 H, 2 BB, 4 K, 62 Pitches-38 Strikes

I'm not going to come out and say it, but Lincecum has really good stuff tonight. Like, filthy stuff. Nuclear stuff, you know? Nasty, man. Like, "I made a guy on MLB 2k9, and he's not as good as this" kind of nasty. His stuff might be good enough for a... nevermind. Oh yeah, and the Giants have a 3-0 lead. I think Big Molina hit a bomb, and this Travis Ishikawa guy just hit one too. That's several more runs than they need.

And now it's 4-0! Man, this is unfair! Someone stop this! They're not facing Barry Zito, for God's sake! It's The Freak!

And then, the man himself singles! This is a massacre! And then he scores after the Panda doubles in two more! 6-0! Not fair!

-Rodriguez versus Lincecum

Lincecum runs it to 3-1, but in reality it's 2-2, the fastball was a strike. Lincecum comes back in with the fastball, and L-Rod pops up it down the third base line, and by God the Panda tried to catch it, but couldn't. Ah well. 3-2 to L-Rod, how about a curve? Nope, change, swung and missed. Worked just as well.

-Luis Perdomo versus Lincecum

Pinch-hitter for Geer, tries to bunt on the second pitch and misses, and then flails at a nasty fastball outside. Strike out

-Cabrera versus Lincecum

What a nasty curve, down, but it misses, 2-1. Lincecum runs it to 3-1 after missing with a change. Seems like he's throwing backwards, and I can't figure out why. 95 low and down the middle, more like a 2-seamer. 3-2 again, and a change-up outside for the K.

Holy crap, folks. This guy can pitch.

Through 6 innings: 0 H, 2 BB, 7 K, 77 Pitches-47 Strikes

So, here we go, The Freak is up with the bases loaded. Knock one out! Nope, struck out. Ah well.

-Gwynn Jr. versus Lincecum

Pounding strikes, Lincecum runs it to 1-2, and Gwynn barely fouls off a change. And then... NO!

NO!!!

THE NO-HITTER IS GONE! NO!

I need to be alone for a while.

-Gonzalez versus Lincecum

With Gwynn on first, Lincecum runs it to 1-1. Challenges him up and in, and Gonzalez takes. Is Adrian the most underrated hitter in baseball? Maybe. Takes another fastball high, 3-1. Fouls one off, 3-2. Okay, change up time. Over the plate, and Gonzalez grounds it through the hole.

Lincecum is at 87 pitches. Almost finished

-Kouzmanoff versus Lincecum

Throw a curve ball, break the pattern. He throws one beneath the zone, swing a miss. Excellent pitch. Look for the double play, fastball low and away. No, misses up and in. That's a set up pitch, perhaps for a change-up away. He's thinking DP here. Damn!

NO!!!

And the scoreless streak is over! Kouzmanoff dinks one in front of the right fielder, who really screws up the throw and sails it over Big Molina's head. Damn.

-Headley versus Lincecum

He's about through, I'd say. Fastball inside, strike one. Hangs a change up inside, yanked foul. Blow him away, Timmy. Nope, same pitch, another run scores on the ground out to first.

94 pitches.

-Venable versus Lincecum

Fastball, strike one. Curveball, hangs it, ripped foul. I'd go fastball high and in. Seems the safe pitch. Tries one away, misses, 1-2. Still one down. Got him on a change-up, swing and a miss.

The stuff is diminishing, fairly rapidly. He's just about done.

-Alfonzo versus Lincecum

Misses with a big curve, up out of the zone. Hung it. Stay away from curves, man. Misses with a change, low and away, 2-0. That was the 100^th pitch. Try and paint some gas on the outside corner, or anywhere. No breaking stuff. Misses again with my idea, 3-0. Tries again, hits the corner outside, 3-1. Tries again, 3-2. Misses low with a change, walks Alfonzo.

Come get him, Bochy. It's over.

-Rodriguez versus Lincecum

Or not, he's only obviously finished. L-Rod isn't exactly A-Rod, though. Damn you Big Molina, quit calling curves! He can't get them over! Throw. Fastballs. 2-0 now. Bochy, what more do you need to see? He has no command. Kid's trying, though. Misses again, 3-0. If he can't get the fastball over, then it's curtains for sure. Misses again, alright, not can it be over?

With the bases loaded, Lincecum is finished. He wore out near the end, but he gets a well-earned standing ovation. Kid's nasty.

Lincecum's Final Line: 6.2 IP, 3 H, 2 R (Both Earned), 4 BB, 8 K, 108 Pitches-64 Strikes

Final Thoughts: The stuff is just other-worldly. A hard fastball, routinely between 91 and 94, which hitters were not taking good swings off of. Most times, the Pads just tried to get through the pitch and wait for a breaking ball, which is an awful idea against Lincecum, because he has by my 'non-scout' eyes, two plus-plus off-speed pitches. The big, 12-6 curve is unhittable if placed well and his change-up is flat out sick, with the movement on the pitch, his command of it and the arm action, which is nearly identical to the fastball.

The command wasn't great tonight -- 4 BBs -- but the stuff was good enough that hitters couldn't take advantage. He missed his spot several times, but was good enough to fight back from hitter's counts, often into a strikeout.

I was impressed, to say the least. Why didn't anyone tell me about this guy? He's kind of good.

Adam also writes for his blog.

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Tim Lincecum is 11-10 despite a 2.53 ERA that ranks third in the National League. Cain is 10-9 with a 2.86 ERA that ranks ninth in the N.L. And then there is Cain's 67-71 career record, which is criminally unfair considering his 122 quality starts since 2006 are the fifth most in the majors.

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Lincecum was known for his long stride, unorthodox mechanics, and ability to generate high velocity despite his slight build: originally listed as 5'11" and 160 pounds, Lincecum put on about 15 pounds prior to the 2011 season.

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