Breaking news, kids, the Texas Rangers are in first place!  Top 3 record in the American League!  If you think about it, well, it's about time. I mean, they have plenty of offensive talent, albeit some of it overrated (I'm staring right square at you, Josh Hamilton).  The pitching was always the problem for the Rangers.  I won't remind Ranger fans of the Chan Ho Park era, but the Kevin Millwood era hasn't exactly been stellar.  Brandon McCarthy has been either injured or awful, usually both, and John Danks turned into a fine pitcher for the White Sox.

Josh Hamilton and Ian Kinsler have a lot to celebrate in Texas this season.

Photo by Keith Allison, used under creative commons license.

The Rangers have scored a respectable 299 runs, while allowing a not great but not horrible 274 runs, giving them a Pythagorean Win-Loss record of 31-26, which is two below where they are, at 33-24.  The Pythagorean Win-Loss formulates the projected record based entirely off of the Runs Scored-Runs Allowed data.  You see, good teams tend to score many more runs than they allow, while bad teams allow more than they score.  Looking at a team's Pythagorean W-L is a fine way to see if a team is overachieving or slumping.  (Pythagorean W-L data is available on each individual team's page at Baseball-Reference.com)

So, the team hasn't been wildly out of proportion in terms of RS-RA.  But, let's dig deeper and look at some individual players and what they are doing.

(Before I delve in, let me explain two statistics I'll be relying on for this next part.  The first, for the batters, is called Adjusted OPS, or OPS+, and it's a simple rate stat for production solely at the plate, so stolen bases don't factor in.  100 is baseline, anything above 100 is good, anything below is bad.  The number above or below tells how far above or below average a given player is offensively.  So, if Adam Adkins has an OPS+ of 184, that means he is eighty-four points above average offensively.

Now, Adjusted ERA, or ERA+, is exactly the same, but for pitchers.  Like OPS+, it factors in park effects, era and opponents, giving it a well-roundness that other stats don't.  Again, 100 is baseline, anything above is good, anything below is bad.  If Adam Adkins has an ERA+ of 56, that means he is 44 points below average as a pitcher.)

Josh Hamilton

Yes, you are overrated, mostly because you suck defensively.  I don't care what people on TV say, I trust John Dewan's Plus-Minus system found on BillJamesOnline, and it says you were awful in 2008 with the glove and not any better this year.  But, you can hit.

Well, you could, at least, but I'll forgive your 94 OPS+ because you've been hurt.

Oh, there's that.  You are always hurt.

I think you are a fine player, and I appreciate your story and what you did, that is commendable.  But it doesn't change your skill set.  You are, for all intents and purposes, a corner outfielder.

Ian Kinsler

Easily the best player on the team and hitting like mad.  Your 134 OPS+ is probably sustainable, given the park, but injuries are a concern with you, as is defense (that is a recurring theme with the Rangers).  Still, Kinsler is a great player.

Kevin Millwood

Oh, here we go.  Anyone think that Kevin Millwood can realistically maintain the eighth-best ERA+ in the American League (153).  Just to clarify, that number would currently beat CC Sabathia, Jon Lester, Justin Verlander and Felix Hernandez.

Guys, he is not better than Sabathia, Lester, Verlander or Hernandez.  Not the guy who's posted ERA+ counts in the last few years of 87, 87 and 102.  It isn't all about the park, either: he pretty much sucks everywhere.  In 2008, his home ERA was 5.09.  His away ERA was smaller, sure.  Ahem.  5.05.

Kevin Millwood has been far and away the Rangers' best pitcher, and he likely still will be come August when his ERA is near 5 again.  That's not a good thing.

Seemingly Every Reliever the Rangers Have

Frank Francisco, Jason Jennings, CJ Wilson, Darren O'Day and Eddie freaking Guardado all have ERA+ rates above 120.  Francisco is nearly at one-thousand, while O'Day is in the four-hundreds.  I'm sure those numbers are perfectly sustainable and won't violently regress to the mean.

Ben Sheets

He had some sort of surgery -- not Tommy John -- to repair his flexor tendon, which is not the thing replaced by TJ (the UCL, Ulnar Collateral Ligament is).  Sheets was a very, very good pitcher for the Milwaukee Brewers, but, again, he cannot stay healthy.  I like taking the risk and signing him, but if they think Sheets will push them over the hump into the playoffs, then Nolan and company are misreading their team.  The Rangers are not a good team.

But, it could be enough. Sure, the pitching is going to end sucking -- but their team ERA is already 23^rd in the world.  The question for the Rangers is, Can their offense sustain the production they are at, which is roughly eighth best in the world.  They could win the AL West, but it is not likely.

The Angels are still a good baseball team, with far better pitching (I know, their ERA is terrible, but it's early and their best pitchers were hurt, and we can't measure the effect that Nick Adenhart's death had on the team).   Plus, their offense should liven up some.  The Rangers pitching is going to collapse even worse than it is -- that bullpen is flying high right now -- and they might end up in the bottom three in league ERA.  Unless their offense mirrors the pitching collapse with an increase in production, I can't realistically project them, right now, to win the AL West.

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