At Home Plate - Budget in a Buyer’s Market: Mariners Pick a Bad Time to be Cheap

At Home Plate

Budget in a Buyer’s Market: Mariners Pick a Bad Time to be Cheap

Written by Matt Souders (Contact & Archive) on January 18, 2009

The player’s union must be getting worried at the moment. The bear market is not just influencing whether we do that extra round of shopping this holiday season. It’s keeping a lot of teams from giving their fans a late Christmas gift that could make a large impact on pennant races around the game. Take a look at these players who are still available and the list of suitors still interested in pursuing them.

Manny Ramirez (Dodgers, Giants): Manny hurt himself pretty badly by entering a bear market at age 37 with demands for four or even a six-year contract. As baseball teams realize that the steroid era is over and that it will become increasingly difficult for players passing the age of 33 to be as productive as they were in the 90s, they become far less interested in gambling on 15-year veterans of the game. Ramirez’ aging peers – guys like Jim Thome, Frank Thomas and Jason Giambi (who, let’s face it, weren’t much less productive than Manny in their primes), are lucky to scratch out one-year, 4 million dollar contract offers these days. Yet Ramirez is still holding out for a four-year, nine-figure deal. Dream on, Manny.

Ben Sheets (Brewers, Rangers, D’Backs): I’m really stretching here. The rumor mill has been ghostly quiet regarding Sheets, so I’m picking up on only the faint rumblings that were bandied about a month ago and my own intuition about what is likely to happen to the injury-plagued ace. The Rangers are desperate for pitching and sent out feelers for other aging stars like Randy Johnson and even Tom Glavine. The longer Sheets sits out there unsigned, the less he’ll be able to extract from the few teams who are still considering him. If he price drops too far, he may decide to stay in Milwaukee at a “home town” rate. But if not, the Rangers may make a desperate bid for his services in an attempt to compete with the weak AL West.

Adam Dunn (Mariners, Dodgers, Giants, Nationals): The Dodgers are only on this list if they strike out with Ramirez. Otherwise, Dunn is the last survivor on the market among the “primarily DH sluggers with question marks” list and he’s watched as Raul Ibanez got 3 years and 33 mil, Milton Bradley got 3 years and 30 mil, Pat Burrell got 2 years and 16 mil, and Jason Giambi got one year and four mil. His hopes of reining in a 4 year, 15 mil per year deal are completely gone. Not only are few teams actively pursuing Dunn (the Nats and Mariners made a public spectacle of withdrawing from the Dunn race recently, though I doubt the sincerity of those words), but all of his peers got chiseled for low cost deals. It certainly feels like the Dodgers and Giants have a nice racket going to chisel both Manny and Dunn to lesser contracts.

Bobby Abreu (??): After some lukewarm interest from the Mariners and Mets, Abreu’s name has not been appearing on the rumor charts. Although, unlike Dunn, Abreu carries a (mostly untrue) reputation as a decent outfielder, he’s also 34 years old, visibly declining offensively, and attached to a reputation as being lazy and not particularly clubhouse friendly. He’ll be very lucky to get two years out of someone and it’s not going to be for the 16 mil he was making in 2008.

Oliver Perez (Mets, D’Backs): Here again, for a productive, high upside lefty starter (albeit a maddening inconsistent one), Perez isn’t getting a lot of buzz. It’s always possible for a team to suddenly emerge and buy a guy you weren’t expecting, but it doesn’t seem likely that Perez will hit the kind of jackpot that a very similar pitcher – Gil Meche – hit a couple of years ago.

Orlando Hudson (Giants, Mariners?, Nats?, Jays?): There are no concrete reports on the Mariners being involved in the Hudson bidding, just a lot of rumbling inside the Mariner blogosphere. But if you do the market math and figure out which teams would even potentially be interested in Hudson, the list shrinks to three or four candidates, two of whom have professed their disinterest (Nats and Jays, both saying they’re not going to spend money this winter). Lest you think it’s only 1-D sluggers, injury prone pitchers and old guys who are having trouble finding work, O’Dawg is both a great clubhouse presence and one of the best defensive second basemen around (and a consistent solid bat too). And yet…crickets.

Orlando Cabrera (??): Getting up there in age, but still an above average defensive shortstop and a plucky hitter, Cabrera got exiled from Anaheim in a bizarre trade that netted the Angels a really bland pitcher, and has since been exiled from the White Sox. Teams are really reticent to spend money on guys over 33, especially when their bats are starting to fade and they’re asking for multi-year contracts. Expect Cabrera to be forced to sign a one year guaranteed contract (perhaps with an option year).

There are a few others, but I think the message is clear. This is a down year similar to the 2002 off season. Only a few of the best and brightest -- the least risky, the most upside, and the best fits with contending franchises -- are getting paid. Now is the time when cash strapped organizations in the middle of rebuilds, should be looking for bargains and spending a little more now to save themselves from having to spend more money later.

The Mariners have spent the last four years engaged in profligate spending on middle-tier free-agents in a bullish talent market. They paid the going rate for Jarrod Washburn, Carlos Silva (OK…they may have overpaid here), Kenji Johjima, Adrian Beltre, Richie Sexson, Jose Vidro (acquired in trade, but still…), Miguel Batista and countless many others who were supposed to step in and provide safe, consistent middle-tier production and make it easier to bring in kids and build a winner. They bought when prices were up.

Now it sounds as though they plan on further compounding their mistakes by staying out of the market when prices finally drop! This is the equivalent of buying thousands of shares of stock in various lending houses at the beginning of fiscal year ’07 and now that the market has bitten you, staying out of the game. It’s madness.

If the Mariners hope to build a cost-effective club, they’re going to need to spend while the spending hurts less. That time is now. They should be leading the charge for guys like Hudson and Dunn rather than sitting back and praying prices drop to even bigger bargain rates.

They may be in the process of rebuilding, but it’s a lot easier to rebuild if you’re willing to spend a little money in intelligent ways than it is if you get a reputation as cheap amongst your fans and potential free agents. And the problem is more pronounced for Seattle because they have precious little time to convince the few good young players they do have (especially “King” Felix Hernandez) that they have a chance to be part of a winning team in Seattle. If in three seasons, the Mariners haven’t become contenders, you can bet they won’t. Guys like Hernandez, Bedard and Lopez will be defecting to brighter lights.

What do you think about this offseason market? Feel free to comment below.

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