At Home Plate - End of New Yankee Dynasty May Come Soon

Written by Daniel Paulling (Contact & Archive) on April 04, 2010

We found the blueprint for beating the Yankees about nine years ago. No, it didn't happen when the Diamondbacks rode Randy Johnson, Curt Schilling and a ninth-inning bloop from Luis Gonzalez to win in seven exciting games in 2001.

The true way to beat the Yankees came in the years thereafter. For every season the Yankees didn't win the World Series, it seemed they added another highly paid star: Mike Mussina, Jason Giambi, Alex Rodriguez and the trainwreck known as the end of Kevin Brown's career, to name a few.

At some point, age will catch up with Derek Jeter.

Photo by Keith Allison, used under creative commons license.

Once the majority of those highly paid players left did the Yankees win the World Series in 2009. Even the biggest spenders need payroll flexibility. If you've got a $200 million payroll, you can make mistakes, but you can't afford to be paying Giambi, Mussina and Brown, at the end of their careers, more than the entire Florida Marlins.

And the Yankees have put themselves in the same position again. They already have $144 million due to players in 2011 (according to Cot's MLB Contracts). That figure doesn't include Derek Jeter, Mariano Rivera, Andy Pettitte and Javier Vazquez. The team's heart, superstar closer and No. 3 and 4 starters, in other words.

Figure Jeter signs for something in the neighborhood of $20 million per season, and Rivera for the same $15 million as he currently has. That bumps the Yankees commitments for 2011 to $179 million. They then need to find two starting pitchers, both of whom won't come cheaply.

They don't have anyone in the farm system and going with a rotation of C.C. Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, Phil Hughes, Joba Chamberlain and Sergio Mitre (or Alfredo Aceves) next season isn't going to soothe anyone's fears. Money is the Yankees' best (and perhaps only) option for filling their rotation next season. Pretty soon, we're back to that $200 million payroll with very little flexibility.

But what hurt the Yankees the most were long-term deals for aging players. History's repeating itself all over again. Mark Teixeira is signed until the 2016 season, when he'll be 36 years old. Rodriguez is signed until 2017, when he'll be 42 years old. Jeter figures to receive a long-term deal that will last into his early 40's.

On the pitching side, Burnett will be 36 when he's done with his contract, while Sabathia, if he doesn't opt out, will be 35. Those players don't figure to age well. The former has battled injuries throughout his career, while the latter has a ton of innings thrown at a young age.

Now, it's always tricky trying to predict the future. Guessing what a team is going to look like in 2016 is about as fruitful as guessing what they're going to look like in 2012. But there's one thing for certain: The current Yankees look a lot like the Yankees from earlier this century. There are a lot of players signed for big money in seasons their productivity will diminish.

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Comments (33)

So if you assume a bunch of bad things happen and then assume some things that aren't really true and then assume the Yankees make no intelligent decisions in upcoming years then the Yankees won't be very good? Great analysis!

You can assume the Yanks will have the most expensive DH platoon in the history of the league to go along with a bullpen anchored by Burnett and CC.

That said, they do have the second coming in Jesus Montero...another DH. Maybe they will use him at catcher. They haven't cared about poor defense at that position since Jorge came up so why start now.

Always planning for the future.

just want to know why you hating on the yankees ? you should write about other teams that arent winninng championship mets who rely on there farm system look at what they got out of that ..1986 last time they won... there so many other teams ....its getting kinda old every year you writters writting about the yankees spending money ..yankees pay alot of salary cap money to the league so other teams can get players to and better ..just owners dont want to spend ...dont get mad cause the yankees ownership wants to win!!!!

Michael: If you could explain your argument a little more in depth, I'd greatly appreciate it.

Berto: Did you misread my entire article? I didn't say there was nothing wrong with the Yankees being able to spend money, and I'm not mad. I'm just saying the Yankees' spending may get them in trouble in the future.

You have left out a couple things to try to prove your point. First, contracts are way down the last two offseasons. You can find decent starters for much less than a couple years ago. Top flight FA starting pitching is still at a premium, but #3-5 starters aren't demanding $10 million and up anymore.

The last time I checked players and pitchers are doing things at age 35 and 36 that they weren't doing a generation ago. Burnett strikes me as someone who will age very well. His arm is lively and he is a pretty big guy. Which starter doesn't have some type of injury history? CC, I'll grant you that one because of his weight. Tex not productive at 36? Come on. The A-Rod contract is a joke, but he could still be a productive hitter, and who knows what Jeter will get...

You assume that the Yanks (or any other team) could get superstars any other way. This is the bottom line: players want security. The superstars want, and will get, long term deals. All or them. Beckett just got another 5 years. Holliday is signed through 2016. Mauer signed an extension that will keep him in Minn until he's 34, as a catcher. The list goes on. So why should the Yanks be expected to act different? Paulling, try improving on your analytical skills before writing another column.

So you're saying that Sabathia, the most durable pitcher in baseball, won't age well? What are you basing this on? Also Texeira is one of the most well conditioned athletes in baseball that plays a position that is not that taxing on the body. Jeter and ARod are in the same boat as Tex, they take care of themselves. These guys aren't Giambi, Brown and Randy Johnson. You need to do better research...

You only point out "potential" flaws, but as said above when Tex is 36 he should still be a very good ball player. CC is a horse and will be a quality starter for many years...every yankee hater keeps wanting him to be injured...not happening. AJ has not had injury trouble in a few years.

Posada, Pettite, Swisher are all contracts coming off the books (all are still performing at a high level I might add).

This offseason they just let Damon and Matsui walk and opted to get Granderson (a guy they intend to build the future around) and Javy (a one year contract).

I fail to see where they are a flawed team? In fact I think they've set it up so they can reign for a long time.

Jealousy is what this article is.

Well written and well articulated. I'm not sure why nearly all of you are clamoring so hard. You don't pay $20+ million a year for "productivity;" you pay that kind of money for core superstar talent that helps your team win into the future. Which the Yankees will get for the next few years.
Paulling correctly questions how such maneuvers will play out for the team's maneuverability in the middle- and long-term.

The author's point is that while players like Tex may be productive at that age -- rather, all the long-term deals may provide productivity into their geriatric years -- such spending doesn't afford much flexibility moving forward. And flexibility lets you build a farm system, sign free agents, and keep a franchise strong.

He also makes a meaningful allusion to farm system depth -- something the Yankees don't have much of at present. Again, he contends that predicting the future in sports is as close to a science as blowing bubbles (out of rubberized cement), but the basic argument still stands: the Yankees, and many other teams, limit their flexibility in the future by signing middle- and later-aged players to massive long-term deals. It's a handcuff whether every team in the league does it or just the Yankees do it. Of course, there are benefits to such deals (if it was purely detrimental, who the hell would do it?), but Paulling highlights the downsides. Not a big deal.

Calm down, breath, relax, and notice that he's not saying things aren't changing now for the Pinstriped Ones, and he even suggests they will likely change from an organizational standpoint.

Besides, wouldn't it be nice to avoid paying the bills for every team in the league every single year?

I love how there's nothing in the minors. You've obviously not spent any time looking over scouting reports or reading Baseball Prospectus. The Yanks are ridiculously deep at catcher, 3rd base and the bullpen. If they need a starter next year and don't feel like resigning Vazquez, they have trade chips. Or sign one. Wy do you think Ca$hman didn't go nuts spending on this year's FA class - he knows what's likely to be available this offseason and next.

Is that the Yanks haven't raised payroll dramatically (if you figure in inflation)in more than half a decade (2004).

In 2004, no other team was over $100m.

All of these teams have had a payroll over or around $100m in this or the past couple of seasons.

Boston, Atlanta, LAA, Astro's, Blue Jays, Cardinals, Cubs, Dodgers, Mariners, Mets, Phillies, Twins, Tigers, CWS. With the Yanks that's half the teams in baseball over/around $100 mil.

For 2010, the Redsox ($168m), Cubs ($144m), Phillies ($138m), Tigers ($134m) LAA ($121m) all have pretty high payrolls. (Mets in 09 was $149 mil)

The point being, all the major players have huge payroll liabilities.

If anyone, the Yanks should be able to deal with that better than anyone. Especially if the new stadium starts selling better.

Not only that, but they had already been restricing payorll per their capabilities.

When you have revenue and tv contracts/stations like the Yanks do...you don't need a great farm system.

I'm willing to bet in 10 years the Yankees will be just fine...and probably have a payroll over 300 mil.

Is this moron honestly saying that Mike Mussina was a bust? Are you serious. You mean the only 20 game winner on the Yankees from 2 years ago. Ok just checking. Dont get me wrong Brown was a bust. Giambi would have gotten that money anywhere he went and he was good when he was playing. That brings me to Arod ... No comment there. Where did this guy grow up under powerlines or something?

I really don't want to bother responding more than this..This team is so deep, they could field a team competitive enough to take on most of the league the next few years. Let's not forget that Brian Cashman is regarded as one of the most brilliant GM's in professional sports. That guy has a chart mapped out, sitting over his desk, for the next 10 years of all free agents, prospects and like kind. Only contract that concerns me will be Arod in about 4 or 5 years, but having a guy who will have by then probably hit 800 homers, as a your DH, well now thats not a bad thing.

So, by your calculation, the Yankees need a 3-4 starter and have 21 million dollars less their current payroll to do so for 2011? Wow. Why would Yankee fans even go to the ballpark next year.

The Yankees may have a significant problem. That comes if A-Rod and Tex get old quickly, CC blows out his arm and AJ never grows up.

I agree with the majority of the comments. This is a stupid article in which the writer uses selective cases to prove his point and ignores the ones that don't support it.

Mussina was a bad deal??? Only because they didn't 3 other Mussina's...especially the way he pitched the last year.

Could some of the lack of winning be caused by the highly competitive nature of some other teams in the division they are in that also go out & get good players too? Probably way beyond the writer's thought process.

I could go on & on about nearly every sentence this guy wrote but I can't see wasting all that time.

This guy actually gets paid as sport writer for writing articles like this one?

I KNOW one person who's definitely overpaid based on ability....the guy who wrote this article !!!

The major point of this article is that the way to "beat" the Yankees is to allow them to continue to sign players to long term contracts that go bust when the player fails to live up to expectation in the future and therefore goes bust....like Giambi & Brown did.

Does this sportwriter honestly believe that the Yankees are the only ones who have signed players to long term contracts that have gone bust?

If you look through the history of virtually every team in baseball since free agency began, all that have spent have also had some really bad deals.......the Red Sox have had many shortstop disasters. The Mets have made many bad deals. Using the writer's logic, this is how you beat these 2 teams also as well as many others (like say the Cardinals with Holiday recently signing a long term deal).

One of the only teams that hasn't made bad long term deals is the Marlins....because they never pay their players....they leave.... which also helps to explain why the fans don't support them....unlike the Yankees.

Like I and others said, this is a stupid article with very strange logic.

This is quite an embarrassing attempt at an article. You clearly have no knowledge of the Yankees beyond a shallow, anti-Yankee outsider's typical view. Sabathia and Teixeira are studs in their prime, both instrumental in just helping the Yanks win another championship, and you've jumped to the ends of their contracts already, proclaiming them likely bad deals. Mike Mussina actually turned out to be great signing, and the Yanks went to two World Series during his stay here. 123-72 with a 3.88 ERA is a bad deal?
Kevin Brown was a trade, not a signing. What the Yanks gave up(Jeff Weaver, Yhency Brazoban, and Brandon Weeden) amounted to nothing, and Brown actually started his Yankee career 7-0 before punching a wall and fading into oblivion after a season and a half.
Jeter, Rivera, and Rodriguez haven't slowed a bit, so your point there is irrelevant. It's good that you've decided the 2011 rotation already includes Joba and Sergio Mitre. Chamberlain will remain in the pen and any end-of-the-rotation voids can be filled via trade and free agency.
Catchers? There's a stud prospect named Austin Romine alongside Jesus Montero. The Yanks are loaded at the position, and Posada is still going strong.
The problem is you aren't sharp enough to hit on what the true downfall of the Yankees was. After the smart signing of Mussina in 2001, Cashman went away from a pitching/defense/reliability concept. He signed the oft-injured Rondell White, Sterling Hitchcock, and Steve Karsay. He signed the unproven Jose Contreras and traded for the untested Jeff Weaver, going away from the idea of building a staff around proven winners. He locked into the one-dimensional, non-athletic Jason Giambi long-term, slowing the team up, hurting the defense, and putting the payroll in a stranglehold.
He brought in malcontents like Kenny Lofton, Randy Johnson, and Gary Sheffield, going away from good baseball guys in the clubhouse. RJ and Sheff put up the numbers, but were miserable whiners in the process. Carl Pavano turned out to be soft and lazy, becoming a huge detriment. Jaret Wright was another example of signing injury-prone pitchers with questionable track records.
Things starting turning around when Cashman went back to bringing in solid starting pitching, more athletic position players like A-Rod, Johnny Damon, and Tex, and blending in young talent such as Cano, Melky Cabrera, Brett Gardner, Phil Hughes, Joba, and David Robertson, all of which takes time to accomplish. He's continued the trend with disciplined bats like Swisher(also a great personality to add to a once-uptight clubhouse) and Nick Johnson, an in-his-prime stud center fielder in Granderson, and a beyond-solid #4 starter in Vazquez. Another shrewd move was not locking into a left fielder long-term, leaving the door open to sign Carl Crawford after the season. Getting younger, better, not committing to bad contracts with aging players with diminishing skills(like they would have in re-signing Damon & Matsui), and hanging onto elite prospects each season and you're already calling for the end of a dynasty. Good luck with that.

Matt: My premise is that buying many long-term, big-money deals is going to harm the Yankees in the long run. My premise isn't that there are other ways to pick up superstars. This is basic economics: Purchase commodities when they're cheap and use them until they've outlasted their usefulness. It's better to draft Prince Fielder, pay him nothing during his prime years and let him walk as a free agent than being the team that buys him when he's a free agent. If you don't want to take the risk involved with a commodity, don't take it. There is a huge amount of risk involved with these contracts.

Lin: Check out Sabathia's pitch counts and innings totals as a younger pitcher. You're saying that doesn't look dangerous when compared to other pitchers? Look up Hampton, Mike. And A-Rod (and probably Jeter) will be in their early 40's when their contracts expire. They won't be spring chickens.

Butcher: Burnett has had as many 200 IP seasons in the last four as he's failed to clear 200 IP by large margins (160 something in 2007, 135 in 2006). We know that he pitches for contracts. Let's just see how he fares going forward.

Areyouserious?: If you're referring to Jesus Montero, you've got yourself a brand new DH or left fielder. The Yankees have some talent on the farm, but they only had two players on BA's most recent top 100 prospects.

Robert Langdon: Yeah, 20 wins, that's the best way to measure a pitcher's talents. And I'm just wondering what A-Rod will be at the age of 41 or 42. I'm willing to bet a far cry from where he is now.

Huh..: Cashman as one of most brilliant GMs? By whom? You? He's okay, but certainly not the best in baseball or anywhere close.

Lou D: Of course the quality of the Rays and Red Sox has something to with any future Yankee demise. If you're going to get beat, you need someone to beat you. However, the Yankees' bad moves are what's putting them in a position to get beat.

Furthermore, the Red Sox never went out and bought a great shortstop. I think the most money they spent on one player was Renteria's deal from 2005. Correct me if I'm wrong there. And how are the Mets doing with their big contracts? I'm sure last season was pretty good for them, right? And they've been in the playoffs a lot recently, right?

Lets all take a step back and look at the history of the Yanks. That being said, I need not write anymore...get the picture? The Yanks have shown time after time that they can get the job done, by whatever means possible. They are, by far, the forerunners in managing multiple long term contracts. Take a look at the top five teams' payrolls: Yanks, Mets, Cubs, Red Sox(Boooooooo...lol), and the Tigers. How many of those teams have won a World Series in the last five years, ten years, twenty years? I'm not worried in the slightest about the future of the Yanks...history tells me not to. A side note here: I take great pleasure in listening from non Yankee fans about how the Yanks are going to lose, rather than hearing about how their team is going to win. Makes you wonder how many "closet" Yankee fans are really out there.

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