As the season rounds into July and teams cross that 81 game mark that officially/”unofficially” brings us into the second half, it’s easy to look back on this season as one full of surprises. There has been controversy over shattering maple bats, instant replay due to botched home run calls, interleague schedules, and updated drug policies. There have been wonderful surprises like the emergence of Jacoby Ellsbury as an elite base stealer, Josh Hamilton growing into his full potential, and top rookies like Jay Bruce and Edinson Volquez. There has been tragedy too like Curt Schilling’s and John Smoltz’s potentially career ending injuries and lesser injuries which have hurt stars like Albert Pujols, Victor Martinez, and Travis Hafner.
And all of that is to be expected. It’s part of baseball and happens each season. It’s part of what makes the game great. Yet it’s more than fair to be surprised at some of the stories which have emerged so far in 2008. Plenty of teams expected to be contenders are playing sub-.500 ball including the Mets, Tigers, Braves, and Rockies (who are playing sub .400 ball). Others like the Tampa Bay Rays are on pace for their best season ever and need just 22 more wins to post their franchise best record of all time.
So what are the story lines to look forward to in the second half? Here are some of my choices.
Which team will reestablish their dominance and get back into the playoff picture?
Top contenders for this would have to be the Mets and Tigers both of whom are less than 5 games back and at least on paper have both the pitching and bats to win their divisions.
How will instant replay affect the game?
It seems we might have limited instant replay by next month but how important will it really be? After the week of botched home run calls that brought this problem to the fore back in early May the buzz has died down and things seem to have returned to normal. Will instant replay be a factor or a total non issue as the playoff races begin to heat up?
What division will produce the wild card?
In both leagues it seems likely that it will be a battle between the East and the Central (although the West is by no means out of it) but teams like the Rays, Tigers, Marlins, Mets, Braves, Cardinals, Brewers, Twins, Dodgers and A’s all look poised to make it a tight race.
What’s going to happen at the trading deadline?
In recent years the trading deadline hasn’t been much of a time for big name player movement but this year could be different as a lot of small to mid market teams have players who’ll command big contracts next season on the free agent market. Names like Mark Teixeira, Adam Dunn, Matt Holliday, and C.C. Sabathia are being bandied about, but will anyone get a major deal done by the deadline? And if so will it put one team or another over the top?
The Manager Merry Go Round.
We’ve seen three managers already get the axe in recent weeks -- the most in one week since May 1991 -- and no doubt several more on underperforming teams are on thin ice. It wouldn’t be surprising to see a lot more changes.
Who’s going to hold a fire sale this year?
The Seattle Mariners seem on the verge of having one as they already are 17 plus games back and obviously (as I predicted in the spring) in need of some big changes. Jettisoning big contracts (Adrian Beltre, Raul Ibanez, Erik Bedard) and underperformers (Richie Sexson, Brad Wilkerson) for youth and taking a long term approach seems inevitable. Rumors say the Rockies might do the same thing, as might the Indians, or the Braves who find themselves very short of starting pitching.
Is Barry Going to Play?
No question there are teams who could use a cleanup hitter, but is anyone willing to take on the whole Barry Bonds mess and media circus? And would any GM or owner who brought him on board be crucified for doing so?
How many wins will the Rays get?
The Rays are the feel good story of the season so far the question is just how good their season will actually be. They’ll almost certainly shatter their franchise best mark of 70 wins but can they make 80 wins? 85? 90? They are on pace for an improbable 98 and have a lot of talent - but a lot of youth too. Odds are they’ll fade a bit rather than overachieve - but for fans in the Tampa area, it’s the first season to cheer about ever.
Youth movements.
Teams like the Marlins, Twins, A’s, Rays and Diamondbacks are surging on the backs of young talent. How far can it carry them? Aside from the D’Backs are any of them playoff caliber teams?
Whatever happens it will be a great season of baseball.
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